538 predictor continues to like our chances. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/ They also like our chances in the CL https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/
They only sort of like our chances in the CL. The CL is a crap shoot as it depends on who we draw. (which I'm sure they have factored into their algorithm) At least for the PL - it's set fixtures - so a bit cleaner to make the prediction.
Anytime you are equals odd with RM to win the CL, you are doing pretty well. But yeah, the CL predictor is a tougher one. They are factoring in underlying league performance into the Euro predictor, which isn't necessarily bad methodology, but their league weighting system seems to be a bit off for this season. They are giving a much higher rating to La Liga and BL than the PL based on the past 5 years of performance. Made sense to do that heading into the season, but the PL has taken a huge leap forward this year while both La Liga and BL have both taken a significant step backwards in overall quality, if performance in Euro is the primary gauge. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-new-in-our-2017-18-club-soccer-predictions/ I'm not sure you'd see major differences who was in the top 5 or 6 if you made adjustment to the model now with league ratings based on this season results in Europe only, but I'd expect to see Barca's SPI more in line with City and Bayern, and LFC in front of RM and a bit closer to those 3.
Barca, RM, bayern, shahktar, citeh, spuds, and scum are the other favorites to advance to the quarters. At this point, I'd rather draw Barca than one of the other (likely) 3 english teams that advance. Bayern - they're good, but certainly beatable and I'd fancy our chances. Shahktar should be beaten soundly by whomever they play. And madrid will always be up for a CL tie - but I'd certainly love to be the ones to knock them off.
Of any of the teams likely to go through, I think Shahktar is the one I'd least want to get. That is a crap trip and they never seem to lose at home.
i usually agree with DCC but, yeah - ******** that ... (also if they didn't lose at home they'd surely have been in the semi - finals at least recently....
Barca over Man Utd??? ffs? United are woeful. If we play with any modicum of injury free confidence we'll thrash 'em....
A fully fit Bayern are the strongestteam folks. look at the videos of their two games last year vs Madrid. Dominated both for an hour until the refs sent off a Bayern player in each game ...
They haven’t lost at home since their opener in July and have beaten Napoli, City and Roma in CL. I don’t doubt we can beat them over 2 legs, but it won’t be easy.
We ran them off the field in preseason. Coman has long term injury. Ribery and Robben are old Lewa wants out as he believes they don’t have what it takes to win the CL. BL is weak which inflated their performances. Basically all the bigger teams will try and play against us which will leave them open for us to exploit. I don’t really fear any of them.
Not sure why its so interesting. I'd much rather have a go at the big boys at this stage than them. I'm all for advancing, but part of the fun at this stage is taking on the other big clubs in Europe. I think pretty much all the teams that remain have flaws that we can exploit and don't think Shakhtar is a nailed on gimme to the next round. I can see a scenario where we go there in the first leg, its a long trip, its cold with crap pitch and we lose 2-1, then Anfield is shitting itself in the home leg as they all think "Crap, we are losing to Shakhtar, they are crap" and we end up going out on away goals or something. If we get them, I'd want the first leg at home so we can batter them and then the second leg can be a professional get the job done draw. If we have to go against RM, Barca, or Bayern, its a much better away, more fans travel, the squad is up for it and even if we would lose a tight game, Anfield is bouncing for the home leg and drives the team to the win. If form holds, they'll probably lose 2-0 to Roma so the point is moot. Roma or Juve would be the teams I'd go for if they are able to get through. The one team I don't want until the final is City. We can do them in a 1 off, but over 2 legs will be much tougher.
So if we win our next 2 against Palace and Watford, we'll be 10 points clear of Chelsea by the time they play Spurs on April 1.
Yeah, we have the easiest run in of anyone, based on ppg of opponents. Still work to be done, but the loss to the Mancs doesn't change a thing. http://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=10
Yeah. LFC's fate was always in its own hands. If you can't beat Palace and Watford, do you even deserve top 4? Still chances for United to lose points as well -- I'll be curious to see how their long ball tactics play against City, or how they will set up at home against Arsenal.
Spurs have Chelsea and City and its looking like Kane will be out for a while, so they aren't running away with anything. If we win the next 6, its likely we can go into the Chelsea game with it already secured. Right now, Palace looks like the most like for us to drop points. They are still fighting off relegation, Zaha coming back, its an early kickoff and we always seem to play poorly there.
Back to one game at a time...as easy as it is with just nine games to go to look at the run in and wonder...We've got Watford next, focus on winning that one first!
Comparing the top 6 teams - how hard is their run-in? Theoretically we're in the best shape. Theoretically ..... Team - Opposing teams' av'g points won this season Spurs - 1.4 MC - 1.31 MU - 1.27 Arse - 1.26 Chels - 1.26 LFC - 1.17
Win out and we are on 84 points. Outcome of the Spurs/Chelsea game will really dictate how much breathing room we have. Spurs win and can still get 85 (they'd need to beat City), and maximum Chelsea can get is 77. That includes beating us which would reduce our total to 81. So we could lose to Chelsea, lose and draw a game and we still likely beat them on GD. Chelsea win, Spurs max out at 82, Chelsea at 80. We'd need to win all our games bar the Chelsea game. Draw and Chelsea max out at 78, Spurs at 83. We'd be able to lose one other game in addition to the Chelsea game. So ideally, Chelsea lose to Spurs, we win the next 4, get to 77 and then we are home free to rotate as needed in the CL Semis and Final.