Its Business Time: The Run In 2018

Discussion in 'Liverpool' started by dcc134, Jan 22, 2018.

  1. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Lots of talk about killing our chances of trophies and top 4 if we don't bring in players this January, so I decided to take a look at where things currently stand.

    I'm a wide-eyed optimist, but there is a very good chance the race for top 4 could be over by the time we play Porto at home on March 6, at least as far we are concerned. I could care less if we finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. It makes little difference. They all are automatically qualified for the group stage.

    Current Table (Pre-Swansea)

    table.JPG

    LFC Schedule (through match day 29)

    @ Swansea
    @ Huddersfield
    Spurs
    @ Southhampton
    West Ham
    Newcastle

    These should all be considered winnable games, but its likely we'll drop points somewhere. We pickup at least 15 points.

    Spurs Schedule (through match day 29)

    Utd
    @ Liverpool
    Arsenal
    @Palace
    Huddersfield

    I'd be shocked if they win all 5 of those games, I think at most they get 9 points, but there is every chance they end up with 6 or 7. I'll be generous and give them 9.

    So after this run of games the points total would be:

    Liverpool P29 62pts
    Spurs P29 54 pts.

    That's an 8 point gap with 9 games to play. I'd say that's almost best case for Spurs, there is every chance it could more. Even with Utd, Palace, the Ev, and Chelsea away to come for LFC, that is a huge gap to make up. Spurs would need to go the Chelsea, have City at home as well as Leicester.

    So basically, the boys need to do the business in the next 6 weeks in the league and then we can shift focus to the cups and Klopp will have more room to rotate in the league.
     
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  2. burning247

    burning247 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    England
    Sep 16, 2000
    Dallas
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    What about Arsenal? (stop laughing!)

    They are? Even 4th? Did this change recently?
     
  3. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, this is the first year 4th doesn't have a playoff.

    https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2398899.html#/

     
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  4. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I would call this the "Pre-Run In Thread"! I definitely see what you are looking at - and it would do wonders for us confidence wise, rotation wise, etc. to have a nice cushion going into the last 9 games - but as we saw last year those last nine will be as important as ever.
     
  5. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Since 2010 the only team in the top 4 after 29 games to fail to finish top 4 was Spurs in 2012/2013 when Arsenal beat them by a point. Spurs were on 54 after 29 and Arsenal were on 47, with a game in hand.

    To quote the Monster High show my daughter made me watch this weekend with her, an 8 point lead with 9 to go "isn't impossible, just challenging".
     
  6. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    So, a 5 game winning run for us then?
     
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  7. burning247

    burning247 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    England
    Sep 16, 2000
    Dallas
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Ha. Had to post this thread today, didn't you? ;)
     
  8. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Still a decent chance in 2 weeks we are heading in to Porto away with an 11 point lead on Spurs.
     
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  9. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  10. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
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  11. ryered

    ryered Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    Hill Country
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Only issue is, big six teams are not necessarily our biggest challenge as we all know.
     
  12. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I'd be happy with a 5 point gap.
    And keep l'arse at 8.
     
  13. CB-West

    CB-West Member+

    Sep 20, 2013
    NorCal
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    One game at a time...next up: Spuds at home - should be fun...redemption!
     
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  14. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, but Spurs, Arse and Utd all drop points in those games and they have more of them to play, (except Arse).

    Arse have City and Utd, plus Spurs and Leicester, all games they would be odds on to drop points in, so they have absolutely no margin for error. Only once has come from 6th with 25 games played to take 4th since 2010, Arse who was 4 points back.

    As we know from years past, trying to chase down a top 4 spot is this many games when you are 4 or 5 points behind to go is extremely difficult.

    A Utd win tonight and a win for us on Saturday will just about lock us in for at least 4th.

    Currently 538 is giving us am 87% probability, Spurs is at 41% and Arse are at 10%.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/
     
  15. CB-West

    CB-West Member+

    Sep 20, 2013
    NorCal
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Still have to play - and win - the games...

    One...at...a...time!
     
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  16. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Of course we do, its just good to have the proper big picture perspective in the event a single game doesn't go our way and heads are falling off.
     
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  17. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    agreed.
     
  18. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    The four teams log-jammed in 2-5 all have two games against other members of the Big Six in their next 5 matches.
    As a result of this, we could see some separation by the March 10/11 round of matches. Or everybody could continue their sclerotic seasons and we could see everybody within 1 point of one another.
    And Crystal Palace could have a big hand in the battle for 2nd as they play 3 of the 4 teams in the coming weeks.

    Liverpool's next 5 league games:
    spurs (h)
    soton (a)
    west ham (h)
    newcastle (h)
    united (a)

    united's next 5 league games:
    huddersfield (h)
    newcastle (a)
    chelsea (h)
    palace (a)
    Liverpool (h)

    chelsea's next 5 league games:
    watford (a)
    west brom (h)
    united (a)
    citeh (a)
    palace (h)

    spurs' next 5 league games:
    Liverpool (a)
    arsenal (h)
    palace (a)
    huddersfield (h)
    bournemouth (a)
     
  19. Red Bird

    Red Bird Member+

    Sep 30, 2003
    Oxford
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    We need to avoid [frustrating] results such as the Swansea one.
     
  20. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Chelsea seems most likely to drop out at this point. Could be a difficult one at Watford tonight.

    Updated with cup/CL games:

    Liverpool's next 5 league games:
    soton (a)
    Porto (a)
    west ham (h)
    newcastle (h)
    Porto (h)
    united (a)

    united's next 5 league games:
    newcastle (a)
    FA Cup (a)
    Sevilla (a)

    chelsea (h)
    palace (a)
    Liverpool (h)
    Sevilla (h)

    chelsea's next 5 league games:
    watford (a)
    west brom (h)
    Hull (FA Cup) (h)
    Barca (h)

    united (a)
    citeh (a)
    palace (h)
    Barca (a)

    spurs' next 5 league games:
    Newport (h)
    arsenal (h)
    Juve (a)
    palace (a) or FA Cup
    huddersfield (h)
    Juve (h)
    bournemouth (a)
     
  21. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    chelsea just got spanked 4-1!!! at Watford ....

    what a hoot.................!!
     
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  22. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They've been hit with League Cup Semi Syndrome like we were last year. Going far in that tournament is a season killer.
     
  23. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States


    960641175697928193 is not a valid tweet id
     
  24. zaqualung

    zaqualung Member+

    Jun 17, 2015
    San Francisco
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Amen to that brother - every year I cringe when we win in that thing in december.....
     
  25. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Does Hazard bugger off because he can’t face the shame of no CL for the second time in 3 seasons or are the chavs’ pay packets big enough to insulate them from the “I want to play in the CL” babble spouted by players?
     

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