According to FIFA, Israel will host Italy in Haifa on 5 September at 9:45 P.M. local time, which is 2:45 P.M. USA Eastern. At the same time, Spain will host Liechtenstein and Albania will host FYR Macedonia. Therefore if Israel loses, they will probably trail the top three seeds (Spain, Italy, and Albania) in the group by 3 points. Given that two of Israel's last three games are against Spain or Italy, a good start is necessary. I would give Israel a tiny chance (5 percent or less) of qualifying if Israel doesn't beat Italy. UEFA plays 1 matchday in September 2016 and 2 in October 2016. In October, Israel will go to FYR Macedonia and host Liechtenstein. Italy hosts Spain on Matchday 2, and if Israel beats Italy then Italy will have pressure on them going into their game hosting Spain.
Israel lost a game they probably needed to win in order to qualify. Italy scored in the 14th minute and on a penalty kick in the 31st minute. Tal Ben Haim scored Israel's only goal of the game in the 35th minute. Italy's Giorgio Chiellini was ejected in the 55th minute and will be suspended for Italy's game hosting Spain on 6 October. Italy scored in the 83rd minute and won 3:1. Israel had 58 percent of the possession and more shots, 14 to 10. There were 5 shots on goal each. In the rest of the group, Spain led 1:0 at halftime and beat Liechtenstien 8:0. Albania was tied 1:1 hosting FYR Macedonia when the game was abandoned due to rain. It would be good for Israel if Albania, the Pot 3 team, didn't beat FYR Macedonia.