Is MLS a failure?

A couple of interesting numbers here. The first is how old these guys were when they began starting. Beasley is the exception and he was known more for speed than skill early on. Everyone complains about Carleton but he's only 17.

I think the other thing is that more of the domestic-born USNT player pool is now playing overseas: Sargent, Weah, Pulisic, McKinnie. This is a good outcome. We want them out of MLS and into more competitive leagues. Have we every had a group of four American attacking players playing for good teams in Europe this young?

I think two things are going on. More of the very best young players are going to Europe earlier. And the second tier, those who would have been in the national team conversation in the past, but probably aren't now, are getting displaced by better international players.

 

Have you seen much of Efrain Alvarez?

 

Also the big difference between those guys then and kids now is that we're comparing 16-22 year olds now versus college guys 22-25. Of course the college guys are more mature in their games. Now, these kids are getting pro minutes earlier. The expansion of USL and MLS is only going to add to that and that's a great thing enlarging the entire player pool and hopefully getting more kids access to better coaching than their former rec teams and high school options.

 

The factor you're holding constant and ignoring completely is the most important: the quality of the actual players. For some reason, this is commonly done whenever anyone has these discussions about development systems because, again, the fallacy is downplaying the factor that is most important -- the quality of the actual player.

If we had anyone as good as Dempsey, Holden, Beas etc. they'd be getting time in MLS. Players like Zardes and Morris were getting starts at U23 age, including in Cup Finals. There's a 15 y/o on LA's roster that will probably break through soon because he's looking good enough to achieve at this level, but he's playing next to young Americans that may never make it to the senior roster because they're scrubs. Chances aren't given, they're seized by the teeth by players good enough to earn them.

It has everything to do with what you said, because the issue isn't the system but the raw materials coming through it. Think of everyone's favorite case study, FCB's La Masia. Since the '87 generation that produced Messi, Fabregas, Pedro and Pique, there has not been a single class as great before or since. Obviously there are still great players coming through that system, but nothing on par with that. Any system is limited by the quality of players coming through it.

 

Compared to the relative golden era of '82-'89, few "great" stand-out players have emerged from the early 90s. That includes guys like Shea, Hamid, Gil and Agudelo, who got MLS and NT minutes over the years yet never materialized into the players we'd hoped. It also includes guys like Gyau, Lletget and Arriola, who never quite managed to get a foothold in foreign leagues. Did everyone around the world conspire to not give young Americans minutes during that period, or just MLS supposedly? Late '90s/'00s is looking a lot more promising with good-looking players coming out of those years so far (Pulisic, McKennie, Adams, Weah etc.) getting minutes in MLS and abroad.

Is it easier to believe the alternative, that the systems have gotten worse? That young soccer players growing up in the late 90s/00s have fewer resources and infrastructure at their disposal than those born in the 80s and early 90s?

You don't get first team chances to develop; you get first chances to perform. This is another fallacy believed about development. As I said, chances are earned, usually by achieving at a lower level. Used to be NCAA; nowadays it's usually USL. You get first team chances because you proved you have something to offer at that level; growth is part of the process -- building the skills to move onto the next level.

 

The same could be said of Man United and the Class of '92.

 

You and I both watched firsthand as LA Galaxy promoted a large batch of Los Dos players to the main roster last season and it was an unmitigated disaster.

People claiming that kids aren't getting chances, simply aren't watching.

 

It should be pointed out: for most MLS academies, their first-ever U-12 cohort is still in high school.

 

Just the Los Dos games. He's definitely a special talent. The problem is that he really only plays one position, second forward in a 4-4-2 or Amid in a 4-3-3, basically a playmaking forward, which makes it hard for him to get minutes at the top level. But if he can keep doing well throughout the entire USL season, I think he should get some minutes with the senior team. Maybe in some open cup games too.

 

Yup. And half of the league has been founded since 2007 anyway. (A percentage that will rise with Nashville, Miami, etc. joining up. Cincinnati FC isn't in the DA yet either).

When we look at some of the early investors in the academy program (FCD, NYRB, RSL), the results are there for people to see.

What's disappointing is the clubs like LAG have really invested heavily, but aren't currently seeing impact. I mean.................the Galaxy sit in the mecca of American youth soccer. And they've participated in the development of future USMNTers (Arriola, Zardes, etc). Right now they really seem to be in a lull that will hopefully be filled as the Alvarez, Mendez, Llanez age group starts matriculating to the first team.

And the Galaxy puts forth the effort. How many minutes are currently being given to homegrowns in the 3rd & 6th largest cities in the country. Chicago and Houston?

The discrepancy between future MLSers, USMNTers, Yanks Abroad from DFW and Houston is astonishing. There are historical reasons for that, but Houston's lack of production is pretty inexplicable.

 

That might make @RalleeMonkey 's point a bit.

I'm not advocating putting him in now as he's just 15, but we both know he's obstructed by DPs that the Galaxy insist on having and who seem to get obligatory starts when healthy, regardless of form (and effort).

I can see the kid departing for Mexico or bigger if he's that talented and opportunities are scarce.

 

I certainly think there's some truth to it. Although I think he would have the same problem being at a top Mexican team too. He plays a position where you probably only want one on the field at a time and you are willing to pay that person millions of dollars. That's a pretty high bar to meet. You can contrast that with Alphonso Davies who you could probably play in several positions just based on his athleticism.

 

Isn't that two positions?

If Sargent counts as playing, and McKinnie counts as an attacking player, yeah, we probably have.

 

It's really the same position in two different formations. Basically someone who has primary attacking responsibilities with little defensive responsibilities and free to roam around. So not a target forward and not a midfielder with specific responsibilities.

I'll grant you Sargent and McKinnie might be pushing the definition. I haven't thought about it long enough to say, but who would be the best four teenage non-defenders signed to European teams at the same time who were born in the US?

 

Again, your foregone conclusion that MLS is not playing young Americans, therefore making them worse is backwards.

We were just talking about how in 2009, Bruce Arena was able to greatly improve LA's defense by drafting and playing rookies like Sean Franklin, AJ De La Garza and Omar Gonzales, who were able to contribute right away and went on to be a multiple-championship winning defense. Players like Brek Shea and Geoff Cameron also came out of those draft years. Teams import players because we don't have this level of talent necessarily coming out of NCAA anymore. Partially because our young players that can ball are starting their careers earlier in USL or abroad (a good thing, really).

It is already cheaper (both in actual dollars and due to intl roster limitations) to play domestic players in those positions. Marginal players of yesteryear, who spent time in NCAA and can't clearly jump to MLS or a better league, like Tyson Wahl, probably looks a lot like a guy like Tomas Hilliard-Arce today; a guy who'll spend most his rookie season with the 2nd team and get 1st team minutes here and there.

 

The Open Cup gives Alvarez some opportunities to get first team minutes as soon as the next few weeks; I think that's a real possibility. I don't think it's necessary to rush him along.

By the time he's 18, we should have an open DP slot in the position he's best in -- hopefully we are thinking about grooming him for that if we're serious about keeping him around. Until then, he should get opportunities when Gio is not available or as a late sub. He may even be able to start earlier than that in one of the wide attacking mid positions where there is some competition.

 

Adu wasn't born here, but at one time he, Bradley, and Altidore were all in Europe and very young. 2 89s and an 87. Look at the other guys the same age and maybe there's a 4th.

 

We've had teenage prospects in top Euro reserve teams for decades now. The special thing about Pulisic and McKennie is that they are actually full members of the first team and getting plenty of minutes. I don't remember having even one player doing that for the US in his teens before, nevermind 2 or 4.

 

...this.