International decline in star players?

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by kolabear, Sep 22, 2016.

  1. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Watching the last World Cup and Olympics, I felt (and I know some others did, too) a lack of really stand-out performances, star performances, although the tournaments were good and, on the whole, enjoyable to watch. In the NWSL this year, scoring has declined. It was a dramatic decline in the first part of the season but picked up towards the end, thankfully. But it triggered again the thinking that in the last 4 or 5 years there's been a shortage of true stars to emerge in women's soccer

    It's harder for me to evaluate this on the US side because we're closer to the team and it's so easy to get caught up in heated arguments but I think you can see it in the international game, if you look nation by nation. Take Brazil and Canada for example.

    In Brazil, Marta is still the star player even though she isn't the player she was 5 or 6 years ago. Cristiane is still her most dangerous, goalscoring sidekick even though she's been around a long time. Formiga is still the best at her position. I have little doubt that Daniela, if not for her career-ending injury, would still be a key player in their midfield.

    It's similar in Canada. Christine Sinclair is still the key player, although she's become much more inconsistent due to injury.

    I'm guessing it's a cyclical thing, a temporary decline; the young Jessie Fleming, for example, appears to be a possible superstar in the making, Canada's next Sinclair. But the decline appears real to me, at least at that level of stardom. And I hope it's temporary.
     
  2. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    I think in all sports there is a constant battle between defensive and offensive scheming. U see this a lot in the NFL where rules r tweaked if one side gains too much advantage. This mostly happens if defenses become dominant because there is a feeling offense sells tickets. I think woso has reached the point where coaching, fitness and overall depth has reached the point where the balance has swung to the defensive side. Even if u ignore bunkering a la Sweden in the Olympics just look at the US vs NL match. If u have decent team speed and r willing to be physical on defense u can keep good offensive players off their game. As FIFA seems to always lean towards offensive football, I think u will see an adjustment made in the way matches r refereed to bring this more in balance.
     
    skybolt and kolabear repped this.
  3. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    An interesting point and one worth considering. But I'm not sure if it explains why, after all these years, Sinclair is still Canada's key player and Marta is Brazil's despite being on the downside of their careers.

    Remember how we used to hear how Brazil was a big country and there were thousands of Martas playing in the small villages and if only the Brazil Federation would support the women...? Well, true, their federation hasn't been very supportive until recently but still... I kept hearing about Maurine, about Thaisa, about Debinha, about Andressa Alves -- and they're all good players but not near another Marta. Not even yet another Cristiane.
     
  4. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Well exceptional players r still going to only come along so often. Most people still consider Michelle Akers the best US player even tho the US continues to churn out quality players. German fans r still looking for the next Birgit Prinz. Overall though I dont see fewer high quality players being produces as much as the disparity between high quality players and the next level has closed enough that even the best players just dont look as dominant as they did in the past.
     
    Namdynamo and exref repped this.
  5. olelaliga

    olelaliga Member

    Aug 31, 2009
    We need to foster creativity in our youngest kids on the club level, give them certain amounts of freedom and guidance and then pick them into the national youth system. There they must be put in a position to succeed. then we might be able to put out the dominant players doing unexpected things that are so fun to watch. I hope that Rose Lavelle might be such a player, but having watched 3 Wisconsin games so far this year I am concerned regarding her development. On the other hand Jessie Flemming is a joy to watch. Sanchez and Pugh are very pacey and refreshingly technical, but I don't see them doing the unexpected. The best we have there I think is Tobin Health. But her choices on the field are sometimes questionable. I get the sense sometimes that there is a slight lack of quickness preventing her from hitting the level of best in class. I could be wrong on that. Does anyone know how she scores in testing?
     
    kolabear repped this.
  6. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There's
    There's another possible explanation, one that I think at least is contributing to what you're seeing:

    Women's soccer is a much more mature sport than it was even relatively recently. As a sport matures, one should expect fewer players who will achieve the fantastic statistics that players achieved earlier. See one of my favorite books, Full House: The Spread of Excellence from Plato to Darwin, Stephen Jay Gould (1997 paperback, Three Rivers Press), Part Three: "The Model Batter: Extinction of 0.400 Hitting and the Improvement of Baseball."
     
    kernel_thai repped this.
  7. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's certainly possible and the point has some similarity to what kernel_thai was saying about defense catching up to offense, with good coaching, good conditioning, and willingness to put out the effort on defense.
    But it doesn't fully explain why the best players of 5 to 10 years ago are, in many cases, still the best or close to being the best players on their teams today, even though many are clearly not quite what they were a few years ago. I used the example of Christine Sinclair, Marta, and Cristiane for Canada and Brazil. I could probably add Caroline Seger for Sweden (and until recently Lotta Schelin and Nilla Fischer). From France, the examples would be Camille Abily, Louisa Necib, and even Elise Bussaglia. From Japan, it would be Aya Miyama and perhaps someone like Saki Kumagai and Nahomi Kawasumi and until recently, Homare Sawa.

    First, I think it's okay to acknowledge a slight lack of new star quality over the last 5-6 years. These things do tend to be a bit cyclical and it gives us hope that there's better things to come. Second, I have another thesis (!), which is that interest and enthusiasm for women's soccer went into a bit of a lull after Mia Hamm and Company and it shows up in fewer true star players emerging over the last several years. It's a lull we're waking up out of since the 2011 World Cup, which riveted attention on the sport again.

    After 1999, some of the euphoria wore off, particularly after the 2004 Olympics when several of the '99ers retired including Mia Hamm. It shows in the attendance chart for the US national team and, except for a modest bump in the 2007 world cup year, attendance stayed fairly low until 2011 and the excitement that the World Cup in Germany brought.

    A soccer player who is 31 or 32 now (like Sinclair, Marta, Seger, Abily, Fischer) was 11 or 12 in '96 when the US women's popularity starting taking off in advance of the Atlanta Olympics. They were 14 or 15 for the '99 World Cup. These are key years in the development of most young soccer players.

    If you're 23 to 27 right now, however, you were 12 to 16 in 2005, with Mia Hamm gone and WUSA as well, the first professional league, which folded just before the 2003 World Cup.

    So I'm suggesting, or positing, a relative "enthusiasm drought" from 2004 to 2011 which may have reduced the pool of really talented, dedicated young soccer players emerging from those years.

    If you were 12 to 16 in 2011 for the World Cup in Germany, you're 17 to 21 now. Perhaps it's a coincidence, but two of the most promising very young players to make it to the US and Canada senior national squads began making a name for themselves at 17 in the last year or so. I'm talking about Mallory Pugh and Jessie Fleming of course.

    I hope in some way or other I'm right or close to it and that advanced defense and overall play won't inexorably prevail over creative offense and exceptional talent.
     
  8. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But, are you sure your premise is right -- i.e., that these still are the best or close to being the best players on their teams today?

    Using Sinclair, who is my favorite player of all time, as an example, I'd say that she is a key player for Canada, but that her role is significantly different and her highest importance to Canada is as a leader. As a player, I think she is one of a number of players who are the "best" players on that team, but I don't think that she is the vastly outstanding player on that team that she was a number of years ago. Looking at France, isn't Henry their best player? As for Brazil, I think that their soccer as a nation has deteriorated, so I don't think they provide evidence of a worldwide trend. For the US, to be honest I believe that today's players are far better than the players in the past, in absolute terms, although past players were farther ahead of other players of their time. (I know that's a statement with which others may disagree, but if you look at the sports that use absolute times such as swimming, track and field, and so on, it's clear that today's athletes far surpass those of the past.)

    To look at it from FIFA's point of view, here are the players who were candidates for their 2015 Ballon d'Or, with Carli being the winner and Miyama and Sasic the other finalists. Of the entire group, only one -- Miyama -- is among your list.

    • Carli LLOYD
    • [​IMG]
      USA
    • Aya MIYAMA
    • [​IMG]
      JAPAN
    • Celia SASIC
    • [​IMG]
      GERMANY
    • Nadine ANGERER
    • [​IMG]
      GERMANY
    • Ramona BACHMANN
    • [​IMG]
      SWITZERLAND
    • Kadeisha BUCHANAN
    • [​IMG]
      CANADA
    • Amandine HENRY
    • [​IMG]
      FRANCE
    • Eugenie LE SOMMER
    • [​IMG]
      FRANCE
    • Megan RAPINOE
    • [​IMG]
      USA
    • Hope SOLO
    • [​IMG]
      USA
     
  9. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    I think we also tend to rewrite the star narrative of past teams when it comes to World cups and Olympics. As far as scoring, it's not really what we remember. There was no great scoring star in 99, really. Not for the USA anyway.
    The legacy of the greatest cup of that era wasn't a star.

    Certainly none of them pulled off a Lloyd performance.

    Who were the great scorers in 1999? Wasn't Hamm, wasn't Lilly. Wasn't even Akers. One could argue Hamm was past her prime internationally right at the time she is credited with being the star. She only really ever scored two goals total in knockout rounds.

    In 99, Hamm scored one goal in the run of play in the 7-1 rout of Nigeria in group stage and she scored in a 3-0 rout over Denmark, also in group. That's it. How she parlayed that into a spot on the all star team as a forward is a mystery.

    Lilly also scored her two against the same two teams.

    Akers and Parlow scored in the Nigeria rout and in the 2-0 semi against Brasil.

    Venturini got a brace against N Korea in group.

    Milbrett got a brace on Nigeria and the first USA goal against Germany in the KO round ( Chastain scored first for Germany)

    whats left were efforts by players who only scored one goal in the cup.
    Chastain, Macmillan, Foudy, and Faucett.


    The big scorers in '99 were Sissi and Sun Wen. (7 goals). They each got a golden shoe. Neither were developed by anyone. Sissi even played and was great when it was illegal for a woman to play the sport in Brasil. Neither country really had any kind of development program. I'm calling it blind luck those great players showed up.


    The USA won that cup by collective effort, and the stats show that. Milbrett lead the way, but it wasn't star power that won the cup. I think we did what we still tend to do, just outrun teams.
     
    skybolt repped this.
  10. amerinorsk59

    amerinorsk59 Member

    Mar 9, 2007
    Chicago area
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    Norway
    Regarding Norway, some consider TWO Norwegian players among the best if not THE best current players in the world, Ada Hegerberg and Caroline Hansen. Both are very young, too. It will be interesting to see how far these two carry Norway on the international stage over the next several years. :cool:
     
    kolabear repped this.
  11. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Defenses as well as the quality have become so much better. But what really hurts the most is the poor pay at the woso pro club level, that makes many a good standout/prospect quit. Nearly 40 percent of the members of the US u20 2012 team that won the WC, don't play pro(or not anymore) shows that a lot of our best players have given up

    At the international level; actually surprised question since most posters don't even bother to watch Bundesliga, France, Sweden England woso leagues. There plenty of star power in those leagues. However a lot of them come from richer(where woso thrives more) but alas much smaller Scandinavian countries. Checkout players like Hanson, Harder & Hegerberg; they're among the 3 best players in the world, but they're countries aren't going to compete with the likes of US, Japan & Germany who got a zillion population over them.

    Canada was the real standout at the Olympics, but it was defensive players like Buchanen & Lawrence and a much more physical type game that helped them win. And that's another thing; the coaching has be come that much better, they don't give a free reign anymore to let a player to take charge of a game. The only one that did that at the Olympics was the Brazilian coach, and Marta made a mess of it
    you beat me to the punch! There's a lot of great international players out there, but not just going with this forum, but woso fans don't watch past their NT or own country's league
     
  12. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #12 kolabear, Sep 23, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2016
    I'm interested to see what people think of the premise but based on the Ballon d'Or example, it actually looks pretty good even though Miyama was the only one I mentioned by name! Lloyd, Angerer, Rapinoe, and Solo all fit the older age category. Most fans of France say Abily is a more outstanding player than Le Sommer (although I like Le Sommer quite a bit). And Buchanan is an example of the young player (20 at the time?) coming in after the 2011 resurgence of interest.

    Henry, Bachmann, and Sasic are the closest to being counter-examples (although Sasic, at 28, was 11 in 1999 and I think Germany would run on a somewhat different clock because of their World Cup victories in 2003 and 2007).

    [add - the best counter-examples I can think of, internationally, are Henry, Bachmann, Wendie Renard, Kim Little, and Amel Majri. That just doesn't seem like many in the 23 to 28 year range and I'm certainly not saying we should expect no one to emerge from that age group]

    Hegerberg and Hansen were very much on my mind as an example of very young, "post-slump" players on the verge of super-stardom.
     
  13. BostonRed

    BostonRed Member+

    Oct 9, 2011
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I realize I'm being a bit pedantic, but women don't receive the Ballon d'Or, but rather the FIFA Women's World Player of the Year Award. I guess France Football (a magazine & sponsor of the original award) didn't think the women were important enough to be included.

    At least the women were allowed to receive their awards at the Ballon d'Or ceremony along with the big boys.
     
    sitruc repped this.
  14. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Also I think we sometimes write off defensive evolution under the aging category. If u take Marta for example whose production is no longer all world but she is still elite. People say well she is getting older when maybe that isnt it at all. Maybe if she had started her career during this current level of defensive sophistication she never would have been all world though she still would have been elite.
     
  15. olelaliga

    olelaliga Member

    Aug 31, 2009
    Does anyone think that the improvement in defensive sophistication will prompt teams to foster and develop creativity and unexpectedness in their attacking players and tactics? If top defenders are thwarting runs down the flanks and dealing well with crosses, then will it take players who see, and can then play to cryptic openings and/or can pull defenses out of shape with creative dribbling and unexpected passing combinations to open fleeting avenues to the goal to win games?
     
  16. kernel_thai

    kernel_thai Member+

    Oct 24, 2012
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    After they work their way thru the 7 stages of death maybe :)
     
  17. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    Um..

    Did you watch the Olympics?
     
  18. olelaliga

    olelaliga Member

    Aug 31, 2009
    Um...yeah I am aware that the USA's single dimension offense failed to penetrate the Swedish wall. However it does not necessarily follow that the US power structure will realize the element that is missing and work to both develop and select creative players in the future.

    I guess my question is somewhat rhetorical. But I don't see a creative magician in the US at this point at the national level and am ever hopeful that USSF "system" will foster the development of creative domestic players. Maybe Sweden has resulted in a wake up call, but I admit my lack of comfidence in the USSF women's leadership to foster a change in culture.

    I frequently lament, probably to some of your annoyance and consternation, the lack of creative, fun to watch soccer, in the contemporary women's game. I am happy to see players like Jessie Flemming emerging and being appreciated. I have heard that some did not think her "game" would translate at the top levels but am happy to see that it has. I have not seen the same ability in Rose Lavelle. She seems perhaps to have stagnated( sorry but that's how I see it). Maybe it's the level at Wisconsin around her, but after having watched her in three collegiate games this year, I continue to be underwhelmed after a hopeful u20 WC.

    I have been involved in all levels of soccer and have seen creativity quashed in kids who have been consistently instructed to "play simple". Subsequently, there has been the transformation of creative little youth players into robotic older players. I like Mallory Pugh as an athletic and technical attacking player who will clearly impact the success of US women's soccer for a long time to come, but have not seen her show the unexpected creative moments that thrill and delight soccer audiences. Sanchez seems very similar to me.

    I am ever hopeful that women's soccer will embrace and develop -the so far elusive- creative and technical female players and maybe the evolution of more sophisticated defenses will herald the age I so desire.
     
    sXeWesley and kolabear repped this.
  19. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    This is the perfect segue for 2019 being the "YEAR OF THE YOUTH".
    The 2019 Women's World Cup will be dominated by the younger players, as a ton of new players will "break-out" on the World Stage. It has already been written in the prophecy that the next GREAT ONES will become validated or initiated in 2019.

    The 2015 World Cup was just an "older" version of the 2011 World Cup.
    Many of those players were older, less fit, and either past their prime, or nearing the corner of passing their prime.
    Here comes the young crop. 2019 is going to be fun.

    And if the USWNT thinks they can win this World Cup with a team featuring at least 10 or more players (out of 18) from the 2016 Olympic team, then they are smoking some dusty stuff from Allie Long's 2nd drawer from the bottom of her dresser (right next to her pink clothing drawer). :ROFLMAO:

    But don't let Abby know it's there.
     
  20. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    So...are you going to do a rip van winkle for three years?
     
    taosjohn repped this.
  21. WWC_Movement

    WWC_Movement Red Card

    Dec 10, 2014
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Papua New Guinea
    LOL, naww, because the process (input) to get there is more fun than the actual post manifestation (output).
     
  22. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Kolabear, I've re-read post 7 and think your thesis is interesting. You've identified the years roughly 2005 through 2010 (or 2011?) as the "lowered interest" years. Your thesis appears to be that there's a lower level of "star player" development for players who were "developing" during those years. And, it manifests itself in the 11-16 year age pool during that period having a relative drought in the current "star player" category.

    So, I think the first question is, "How does one define 'star player'?" Once we have a definition for that term, we actually could look at player stats by age group to determine whether the first part of your thesis is correct. A difficulty I see, in particular, is how to define "star player" apart from goals scored/assists and GK stats. This is a critical part of the task, since it's possible that all that's happened is that more of the better athletes have become defenders so that there's been a drop in offensive stats.
     
  23. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Thanks, Chris. I haven't thought about how to quantify "star" quality in statistics and I doubt I can come up with a satisfactory one. I think with some of the players I cited as examples -- such as Marta, Cristian, and Christine Sinclair -- fans don't even rely on stats to know their star quality. They can see it -- and the stats just offer a measure of reassurance.

    I'm unsure what, ultimately, the point is I'm trying to make. It's a reaction to what I saw as a slight plateauing of the quality of soccer at the World Cup and Olympics. But I guess I'm also looking for the silver lining. The danger or depressing thing would be if we're seeing the effects of organized youth soccer wringing the creativity out of the game, as one fan, oleliga, sees happening. That would be depressing indeed and would portend a continued relative drought of star, standout, creative players.

     
  24. olelaliga

    olelaliga Member

    Aug 31, 2009
    I was thinking about my observation and opinion and think playing in increasingly single sex environments is one of the major factors in an apparent loss of creativity in little girls. First off, I have seen creativity much more often fostered in boys than in girls. Culturally, is there a problem with a little u11 girl who is perceived as flashy and kind of selfish? Picture the little dribbler weaving through defenses getting stuffed a few times, knocked down a few more, but regularly drawing defenses, dishing a slick little pass to an open player, and scoring more than her share of goals? Was she more accepted when she played with the boys in the mold of Mia Hamm and others who came through the youth system more than a decade ago?

    As a corollary, does girl culture bring outstanding girls, especially those whose flashy game can be perceived as attention getting, down a peg toward the mean? Are they actively discouraging, with snide comments and exclusionary practices, style seen as drawing attention away from the group as a whole or even them as an individual? Does jealousy have a role in this phenomenon if it exists? Are girl parents more likely to make comments regarding a player's being a "ball hog" to other parents such that the parent of the little creative kid admonishes his/her child to "share the ball" more. In general, is playing with girls and being placed in girl culture sucking the creativity out of our best technicians so that they socially "fit in" ? I think the same could be said on player's shot development.

    Are little girls more reluctant to shoot the ball than are boys? Are they worried about a negative reaction to them if their shot is poor or they stand out because they score more than their peers? Do we encourage more attacking individual skill development during games in boys than girls? Are we losing something more significant that just better competition by having girls isolated from boys?

    I strongly believe this is happening even possibly at the national level where an important metric for national players is "time on the ball for each possession". Quicker can be better, but not in every scenario. Some of the most creative players are indeed creative with amazing one touch passing, but should we actively discourage a player in an attacking midfield position from running at a defense?
     
    exref repped this.
  25. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting thoughts. Think about the polarization over Heath and Rapinoe, two players who appear to fit what you would like to see.
     

Share This Page