It is absolutely more complex than this. For starters, many of Pogba's shots are good ones where he isn't necessarily blocked. For those that are closed down, if he "misses" but the shot is well struck defenders are likely to attempt to close down harder and leave room behind for other opportunities. Long shooting that is dangerous or just accurate, disrupt shape. Even if you don't score there are a host of ramifications that occur after shots from distance come close.
xG is all well and good when generalising or comparing but less useful when discussing specific players and their skillset.
Not to mention that long distance shots can create rebounds/high percentage chances for other players. Your xG/statistical reliance only tells part of the story, as stats usually tend to do. The importance of statistical data can not be completely refuted. But at the same token, you can't completely play the game based on it either. Instinct, a player's self belief/confidence overrules statistics. They both have their part in the game though...
I see no evidence to support the idea that he needs to take a low xG shot in order to force defenders to close him down. Defenders need to close down for the very reason that if they do not - a low xG shot will be turned into a high quality scoring opportunity when taken by an elite shooter Furthermore, a key reason these shots are low xG is so many defenders are between the shooter and the goal. i,e screened Taking lower xG shots does not lessen screening
And the most specific part of that skill set is ability to get into quality goal scoring positions That's why its not about "shooting from distance" but getting into / creating space for quality shots. Scoring from midfield is often about arriving unopposed for a shot You were right when you said the key is getting him closer to goal.
So basically he needs to only take shots that defenders promise not to close down? Nobody said taking poor shots creates better shots from those locations... quite the opposite, the suggestion is that a good shooter getting shots from distance creates MORE closing down which opens up space behind. Also, Pogba disposes of players who lunge about 2 or 3 times a game. If he can create circumstances where that happens more often, he will create quality chances.
He needs to improve his decision making. Taking low xG shots is poor option taking. The hard part is for players to realise in a split second what low xG looks like. Not always easy. yes. This part I don't believe. It's just poor option taking.[/QUOTE]
Again - there is no data to suggest these factors justify long range shooting. Agreed - that is the whole point. Via pattern recognition, players need to evaluate in a split second, whether an opportunity is low xG (which it usually will be based on location) or whether this is a special occasion where a shot is on. So I agree if you are unopposed on the D - you should normally shoot But in general - you need to shoot 50-100 times from outside the 18 to score. So this tells you that the vast majority of such shots are poor options
[/QUOTE] Obviously it is hard. What looks clear may become obstructed during the back lift. But that back lift that CAUSES defenders to close down, has an exaggerated or at least a greater effect when those defenders know a powerful shot could be coming. They close down because if they don't it is a good chance. Therefore a lot of times it was a good opportunity until defenders acted. The next stage is to punish the close down.
Right. It's ridiculously difficult to beat EPL keepers from the range Pogba is taking these shots. There may be some entertainment value in them but the conversion rate even for a outstanding footballer like Pogba is extremely low. Taking one or two such shots is fine to "get it out of his system", so to speak, but to look for these shots instead of looking to develop a better chance is wasteful and can frustrate teammates.
Right. An interesting example of it came up in Germany vs Czech. Loew played Kroos as a single 6 and central midfield opened up the whole time. You can see in these 2 grabs, how much space the shooter has, though he is far out. Even though there is a screen, he has plenty of time to get the ball up and over. So its a lot like a direct free kick A free shot at goal basically. I would see this sort of thing as different to most long shots. Getting free in these areas (ideally a bit closer to goal) would be a valuable skill set. I also included Pogba's goal vs Westham - similar distance, but not even screened These would be recorded as low xG chances (due to how the stat works) but are likely much higher in that specific case
Yeah, situation specific. I'd argue that after one or two shots from Kroos' range, there'd likely be a reaction to get someone out to him sooner. All that space behind is then more open. I think we are saying something similar from different perspectives. I don't think that long shots are easy, but I think they can be good because of the reaction they may create.
The bottom line remains though ańd something I have been saying from the start is that I do not want to see Pogba trying an over abundance of long distance shots, especially when he's not in an ideal position to do so. That's just dumb and a clear waste of a potential attacking chance. That being said, something else that should be pointed out is that Pogba is one of those players, if/when open, that I have absolutely no qualms seeing him take a crack at one either. Long distance shots from someone like Pogba or Scholes/Gerrard before him for instance, are much higher percentage chances in most cases over most players. Just like heading the ball for some players automatically becomes a higher percentage chance for some players over others, simply because they are skilled at it. In the end, once again, no one is saying that Pogba should be careless with his shooting and do it whenever he wants to or regardless of the situation, but at the same token, it would equally stupid to completely curb/kill off that part of his game because in theory, long distance shooting are "low xG situations"....
Let's be clear in how we describe the nature of the shots Pogba is usually trying to create when he takes shots from 23-28 yards out. He's usually not free and clear with no one in front him and only a keeper to beat. He's usually on his third or fourth touch and obviously trying to create space past a defender and obviously looking for a shot. I don't have an "xG" to quote, but when you have two defenders on your and you've carved out a half chance from 25 yards out, the chances of actually beating the keeper are zero. On the other hand, if you're open with a defender nowhere near you and you're 25 yards, I'm all for a player with Pogba's power having a go rather than looking for a pass or trying to dribble through. The chances of beating the keeper from that range are near zero, but better than when you're marked closely and have a tiny sliver of light to work with. Best Advice? Look for shots no further than just outside the D and leave the home run swings on the training ground.
I just hope that he will be worth it of his expensive price. Oh well seems like the Red Devils are having a good opening season, I am hoping that they will be able to keep it up as the competition progresses.
Your posts are so poorly written they become just a sea of nonsense... and your point (if there is one) disappears into the text wall. Translation: When PP has a look from distance he should take it - but I'd like to continue to see him improve situational awareness. If my translation is correct I agree with you.
If your reading comprehension is poor, it's really not my problem. I guess I could go on and on, but in short, fvck off...
Paul Pogba clowning around at Carrington with Axel Tuanzebe. 😂 https://t.co/6ptUdvwudZ— Football Tweet ⚽ (@Football__Tweet) September 21, 2017
Not looking good for a quick return for Pogba. http://www.espnfc.us/manchester-uni...ision-on-paul-pogba-surgery-next-week-sources
You think losing our best player for an extended period will have negative consequences? That's a hot take.
No one argues that “we’re fine” without Pogba and stepping in. The question is whether we’re better off with Fellaini or Herrera stepping into his place. A completely different question, no?