Hi everyone, So I've had several ideas about what our new normal could look like in a world with the Nations League, a 48-team WC finals, the lost opportunity to continue collaborating with Conmebol on the Copa América... But it's kinda pointless to bother trying to flesh them out for this cycle or the next, for a couple reasons: - This cycle will be longer than usual, with the World Cup in November; by the same token, the 2026 cycle will be shorter than usual (thanks for picking Qatar, FIFA!). - We have no idea how many WC berths will be on offer this year...or how many will be available via qualifiers for 2026, depending on how many of the hosts FIFA allows to automatically qualify for the Finals. So with that, here are my assumptions going into what would be the first cycle under the new normal for Concacaf: 1. Reconciliation with Conmebol will not be forthcoming (at best, NTs will pursue Copa América invites on their own). 2. After the 2021 Gold Cup - FIFA won't touch it, since Infantino's argument that the CWC that year is simply taking up the Confed Cup's slot means that the rest of the calendar shouldn't be interrupted - FIFA will force Concacaf's hand to stop having Gold Cups in the year before the World Cup, to let the CWC have the summer to itself. 3. Concacaf will still be able to raise revenue through the one Gold Cup and two Nations League finals held each cycle. 4. Montagliani will not push his One Concacaf mantra beyond a reasonable extent, e.g. changing WCQ to guarantee more games to smaller teams (and with more accessible rewards) without forcing the best in the region to play alongside the absolute worst in the same round. So, without further ado, my ideas for the cycle: 2026 June - WC Finals Concacaf Nations League (CNL) follows, maintaining the current format. September - CNL Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 Top 2 in each group from League A and group winners from League B go straight to Gold Cup; worst teams in each group from League A gets paired with runners-up from League B for home-and-away playoffs 2027 March - CNL finals, Gold Cup playoffs June - Gold Cup September - CNL Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 The group winners in League A not only play the Final Four, but skip the first round of WCQ...unless a non-FIFA member makes the Final Four, in which case the best FIFA-affiliated runner-up in League A gets the WCQ seeding privilege. Here, the 1st round of WCQ is the other 31 members of Concacaf drawn into 7 groups of 4 and 1 group of 3. 14 teams move on: all 8 group winners + the best 6 runners-up (borrowing from UEFA by dropping results from the bottom side in 4-team groups to judge among the runners-up). Having the top two move on in most groups would prevent teams from tuning out early as happened in 2014 WCQ. 2028 March - CNL finals, WCQ R1 Matchdays 1-2 June - WCQ R1 Matchdays 3-4 (top sides free to play Copa América if invited) September - WCQ R1 Matchdays 5-6 Here, the 14 first-round survivors join the four teams on a bye for Round 2: 3 groups of 6, top 2 in each qualify for WC, best 3rd placer goes to intercontinental playoff tournament. October - WCQ R2 Matchdays 1-2 November - WCQ R2 Matchdays 3-4 2029 March - WCQ R2 Matchdays 5-6 June - Idle (doubt FIFA allows players to go from clubs to NTs, then back to clubs for CWC) September - WCQ R2 Matchdays 7-8 October - WCQ R2 Matchdays 9-10 November - WCQ intercontinental playoff tournament 2030 March - Friendlies June - WC Finals
Wikipedia links to an old announcement by FIFA that the spots per confederation will be the same for 2014, 2018, and 2022. Whether that's true or not, it would be nice if FIFA made a new announcement. You're assuming that FIFA will allow WCQ byes to be determined by something other than the FIFA Rankings. A downside of three groups is that none of the top three will play each other in WCQ. With two groups, even if USA and Mexico didn't meet, one of them would play Costa Rica, and USA has done worse against Costa Rica in WCQs than against Mexico. By WCQs for 2030, it's possible that other Concacaf teams will be as good as some of the current top three, but we don't know that. It's also possible that other islands will become members of FIFA. Your format would work for up to 36 teams, meaning at most 1 new member. If Concacaf has 37 or more teams by then, you would need 7 groups in Round 1.
The berths are entirely dependent on whether Infantino can make Qatar/Kuwait happen. You're right that there's no guesswork involved: If the WC remains at 32, Concacaf sticks with 3 berths + 1 playoff ticket. If the expansion to 48 goes through, we're up to 6 berths + 1 playoff ticket. Might not be the first time: I can't find an article clarifying which FIFA rankings were used for the 2014 WC preliminary draw, but the most immediate edition ahead of the draw had Honduras outside of the Top 3 (from what I see now on the FIFA website - no idea if those were the actual rankings, or recalculated based on the current model). Nonetheless, they were included in the highest pot of Concacaf sides on the strength of having qualified for the previous WC finals. Right - and I think that would be deliberate. One reason the UEFA Nations League exists is to resolve the lack of competitive matches between the best NTs in Europe outside of tournament finals - a problem that we in Concacaf didn't have, thanks to the Hex. Rather, I think Montagliani would opt to create that problem in our WCQ so that we look to Concacaf's own tournaments - the Gold Cup and CNL - for our fix of US/MEX/CRC showdowns.
I know. The rule that only the FIFA Rankings can be used was made within the last few World Cups. I remember reading the St. V & G wasn't one of the best of 12 in Concacaf, but in the format used for 2006, the 12 incumbent Semifinalists were separated so they would just need to beat a team who didn't make the Semifinals the time before. They beat Nicaragua 6-3 on aggregate. Costa Rica and Cuba played 2 draws, with Costa Rica advancing on away goals, and Cuba probably could have beaten St. V & G. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CONCACAF) cites the FIFA Rankings used for 2014. The rankings were from March 2011. You linked to July 2011, which couldn't have been used because the WCQs started in June.
I welcome the new tiers in CONCACAF but am sceptical about the formats in the world cup and in the clubs competitions. I think they should try to give the little guys a trophy that is important and hard to win but that is guaranteed not to be won by the huge nations every time (so we need a seperate tournament added). I also feel there should be more separating off of tiers, but with promotion into a higher level for the winning teams in the lower tiers. I also feel that CONCACAF is a bit like having a continent that consists only of Japan, China, and then 43 villages of Mongolia each having to send a seperate team of their own .... I would much prefer it if the Gold Cup tournament started with all US & Mexican states competing seperately for a place in the tournament, or if the 10 largest by population from each (US & Mex) each had their own team and the rest could have an alliance team - these alliance teams would be among the favourites to win (alongside DF, Cal, CRC, etc) but it would no longer be completely unfeasable for one of the others (or one of the smaller states' teams) to win the Gold Cup and to earn themselves a massive celebration by doing so.
That was the previous status quo...and hardly anyone cared about the Copa Centroamericana or the Caribbean Cup. Attendances were consistently dismal for games not involving a host team, and B-sides were the norm. Do you mean in the Nations League? There are only 41 members in Concacaf, so filling out 4 divisions would be difficult.
Some Americans don't understand national teams and ask why foreign MLS players like Beckham couldn't play for the USMNT. Do you want players to have clubs for most of their games, state teams for the Gold Cup, and national teams for the World Cup and its qualifiers? Fans aren't used to rooting for states, and clubs being in the same state is what makes them rivals. The most populous states have more people in big cities where having star athletes from their city isn't a big deal. An everybody else team from 40 states would have far away states with fans having no reason to root for players from the other states. Almost all of the Gold Cup is in the USA, so it wouldn't make sense to create state teams that fans don't understand and/or won't care about. People in New York City feel more connected to suburbs in New Jersey and Connecticut than to upstate New York, and teams in New Jersey call themselves "New York," whereas teams in Buffalo call themselves "Buffalo." Just like the USMNT doesn't always have a majority of the fans at home games, if an other 40 states team hosted an Illinois team in St. Louis or Milwaukee, I think some fans would root for Illinois over the other 40 states team.
**record scratch** So first, on Concacaf's new format 1) It is blatantly elitist, denying the majority of us the chance to compete for direct World Cup qualification on the field, based on results in the here and now. Mister Chip might be a fan of it for the excitement factor, but that does not justify having 29 teams fight for scraps from the table. 2) It is unprecedented in world football. We've seen FIFA shortchange confederations (e.g. the AFC and CAF being jointly offered only one berth for 1966, or FIFA reneging on their promise to the OFC ahead of 2006), but never has a confederation limited its direct WC berths to only a certain set of its membership. 3) It is dangerous for the game. I wouldn't only be concerned for the smaller federations in Concacaf; if you're a fan of a smaller team anywhere in world football, you should keep a keen eye on if this gets challenged here or in FIFA, b/c otherwise there would be nothing stopping the CAF, the AFC, or even UEFA one day from doing the same. --- Having said that, I also asked myself if there would be any longevity to this format (as in, could it be implemented for future World Cups). No point in talking about the 2026 cycle until we know 1) how many of the hosts will qualify automatically and 2) if Concacaf can figure out a way to have them play anyways... But for 2030, if we're now cool with 2 qualifying paths, then it opens the door for Concacaf to expand the top echelon (a Hex with 6+1 berths on the line is non-sensical on its face) with enough available dates if it doesn't mind stacking one Nations League atop another. Possible format 1) Conmebol-style Decagonal - Top 6 qualify for WC 2) Simultaneous elimination tournament for remaining 25 teams - 7 groups of 3 + 1 group of 4, home-and-away elimination rounds from R16 to the final, winner plays 7th place from the "Dec" for the playoff berth 2030 WC cycle 2026 September - Concacaf Nations League (CNL) Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 2027 March - CNL finals, following CNL Matchdays 1-2 (i.e. current CNL finalists use up their bye days in the following CNL this same month) June - CNL Matchdays 3-4, Gold Cup September - CNL Matchdays 5-6 - after this window, the FIFA rankings would be used to determine the Dec participants Oct - CNL finals November - Decagonal (Dec) Matchdays 1-2, WCQ group stage Matchdays 1-2 2028 March - Dec Matchdays 3-4, WCQ group stage Matchdays 3-4 June - Dec Matchdays 5-6, WCQ group stage Matchdays 5-6 September - Dec Matchdays 7-8 October - Dec Matchdays 9-10, WCQ Round of 16 November - Dec Matchdays 11-12 2029 March - Dec Matchdays 13-14, WCQ quarterfinals June - Dec Matchdays 15-16, WCQ semifinals, Gold Cup (if it's still biennial) September - Dec Matchdays 17-18, WCQ Final October - Playoff between Dec 7th place and WCQ tournament winner November - Intercontinental playoff tournament 2030 March - Friendlies June - WC finals
Alternatively, a more calendar-friendly version: 1) Top 10 drawn into 2 groups of 5 - top 3 in each qualify, 4th-place teams go to playoff. The tradeoff is no USA-Mexico WCQ, but each now only has to play 8 games to make the Finals. And yes, only 2 teams are eliminated in this round...but expanding the top tier to 12 would leave us with 23 teams in the lower tier, not enough to have at least 3 teams in each group (unless you just go with 7 groups and have the best runner-up join the group winners in the quarterfinals - in that case, you could do 2 Hexes in the top tier with no change in the calendar below). 2) Simultaneous elimination tournament for remaining 25 teams - 7 groups of 3 + 1 group of 4, home-and-away elimination rounds from quarterfinals to the final, winner plays against eventual 7th-placer from the top tier for the playoff berth 2030 WC cycle 2026 September - Concacaf Nations League (CNL) Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 2027 March - CNL finals June - Gold Cup September - CNL Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 2028 March - CNL finals June - friendlies, WCQ draw (the start of WCQ can be moved up to this date, and the draw to April, if FIFA wants June 2029 for themselves for the CWC) September - Top 10 Matchdays 1-2, WCQ group stage Matchdays 1-2 October - Top 10 Matchdays 3-4, WCQ group stage Matchdays 3-4 November - Top 10 Matchdays 5-6, WCQ group stage Matchdays 5-6 2029 March - Top 10 Matchdays 7-8, WCQ quarterfinals June - Top 10 Matchdays 9-10, WCQ semifinals, Gold Cup (if still biennial) September - Top 10 playoff between 4th-place sides, WCQ Final October - Playoff between September playoff winners November - Playoff winner from October in WCQ Intercontinental playoff tournament 2030 March - Friendlies June - WC Finals
Alright, here's my (probably waaaay too overcomplicated) format for CONCACAF's 2030 WCQ. I think two tiers is fine. It gives lower-ranked teams a chance to play more WCQ games and not just be eliminated after two games, all that fun stuff, yada yada.That being said, I think the best format should include any genuine contenders in the main qualifying round. 10 is waaaay better than 6 for the main qualifying round, but still leaves out some good teams, especially considering it's an expanded tournament. Therefore, taking into account scheduling considerations (for 2022, a team in the Hex plays 14 games if it makes the intercontinental playoff), I propose the following format: Tier A: This tier will include the top 18 teams. Round 1: The 18 teams will be divided into 3 groups of 6 teams each. You can think of it like there are three Hexes, except diluted as the top teams are spread out over three groups. This means 10 games for the teams in this tier in Round 1. Upon the conclusion of this stage, I would advance the group winners and best runners-up. I would then have the two worst runners-up playoff for the fifth spot (Round 2). For scheduling reasons, I would have this played as a single leg on neutral ground (up to 11 games for playoff teams). The loser would then advance to another single-leg playoff against the winner of the Tier A-B playoff (explained below) for CONCACAF's last full spot (12 games). The loser of this next game goes to the intercontinental playoff (14 games). Tier B: This tier will include 17 teams. The teams could be divided into 4 groups, 1 groups of 5 and 3 groups of 4. Round 1 in Tier B would thus be 8 games in the 5-team group and 6 in all the rest. I would then advance the 8 group winners and runners-up. The 8 teams could then play single-leg fixtures from quarters until a final, all on neutral ground (for teams making the final, either 11 or 9 games by now). The winner of the final then advances to the Tier A-B playoff. Tier A-B playoff: The Tier B winner advances to playoff against a Tier A side that has not already qualified. To avoid having to pick one third-place finisher from Tier A out of three for the playoff, I would use the Nations League here. The best Tier A side in the Nations League not already qualified advances to this single-leg playoff on neutral ground. This means either 12 or 10 games for the Tier B winner after this game, and 11 for the Tier A side playing this game. The winner of this game, as mentioned earlier, plays for CONCACAF's last full spot against the loser of the two worst-runners-up' playoff (so if the Tier A side wins, they will have played 12 after that next playoff games; if the Tier B side somehow pulls off the upset, they will have played 13 or 11 games). The loser of this last playoff then advances to the intercontinental playoff (so 15 games max if a Tier B side that played in a 5-team group somehow advances to the second game in the intercontinental playoff tournament). As I said, overcomplicated as all hell. But... the upshot of this format is - every team theoretically has a chance at a full WC spot. Also, less importantly, the Nations League becomes more important as a fall-back option if you fail in WCQ. And any genuinely decent teams should probably be in Tier A, anyway, with 18 spots.
The downside to that: In Concacaf's WC2022 qualifying format, only 2 teams (5th and 6th in the Hex) bow out and watch a lower side (the WCQ Tier 2 tournament winner) continue to a playoff. In my proposed WC2030 format with 10 teams in the upper tournament, 3 sides (the last-place finishers in the Tier 1 groups and the loser of the playoff between the 4th-placers) bow out and watch a lower side continue to the playoff. But in your proposal, 11 teams (the 3rd- to 6th-place finishers in each Tier 1 group, minus the team favored on NL results) bow out and watch a lower side continue to the playoff - that would be a hard sell politically.
I don't think teams would want one game playoffs and not get a chance to host in that round, especially if the neutral sites are mostly in the USA and one team knows that the other team will have much more fans. What about tiers similar to the Nations League with groups of four? I put the top teams in groups of six and the rest in groups of four and one group of three so the teams who could qualify without playoffs would play at least 10 games. Here's my idea. Tier 1: 12 teams 2 groups of 6 Top two in each group and best third place qualify: 5 teams Worse third place and both fourth place teams to Playoff Round 3: 3 teams Fifth place and sixth place eliminated: 4 teams Tier 2: 12 teams 3 groups of 4 First place to Playoff Round 2: 3 teams Second place to Playoff Round 1: 3 teams Third and fourth place eliminated: 6 teams Tier 3: 11 teams 2 groups of 4 and 1 group of 3 First place to Playoff Round 1: 3 teams Second, third, and fourth eliminated: 8 teams After the groups, the 35 teams break down this way: 5 qualified 3 to Playoff Round 3 3 to Playoff Round 2 6 to Playoff Round 1 18 eliminated The playoff would have three ladders of four teams. If FIFA allowed it, I would make a draw restriction that two teams from the same group cannot meet in Playoff Round 2. For example if second place from Tier 2 Group A won Playoff Round 1, they would face the winner of Tier 2 Group B or C in Playoff Round 2. There would be 3 winners in Playoff Round 3. They would be ranked that gives them a choice of opponents. The top winner could choose between Playoff Round 4 against either of the other two Playoff Round 3 winners or the interconfederational playoff (hereafter IP). If the top winner chose an opponent for Playoff Round 4, the remaining Playoff Round 3 winner would go to the IP. If the top winner chose the IP, the remaining two winners would play in Playoff Round 4. 5 spots from Tier 1 + 1 from Playoff Round 4 + 0.5 from the IP = 6.5. Having some teams go to a playoff within the confederation and a team go to the IP without a playoff in the confederation first is unusual, but not unprecedented. At one point, UEFA had 9 groups and 13.5 spots. 8 second place teams played playoffs for 4 spots, and 1 second place team went to the IP. No team could play more than 14 games. Tier 3 teams would need to win four playoffs to qualify, which is fewer than the five for the bottom 29 teams now, and since it had the bottom 11 teams, all three might be eliminated in Playoff Round 1 or 2. Tier 2 winners would need to win three playoffs to qualify, and Tier 2 second place teams would need to win four playoffs to qualify. Tier 1 teams that played 10 Hexagonal games would have at most two playoffs. Differentiating between the two third place Hexagonal teams isn't great, but the worse team would still be able to qualify, whereas Asia's first group stage advances some second place teams and eliminates some second place teams.
Why not just 5 groups of 5 for the 'lower 25'? The 5 group winners, and best 2nd place team along with the 2 4th place finishers from the 'top 10' go into an 8 team playoff. That's 8 games/matchdays, and another 6 for the 8 team playoff, totaling 14. Otherwise, I like the format. Maybe the only downside is it could be a little anti-climatic for the top teams - probably clinching qualification in late 2028- well before the 2030 World Cup
3 reasons: 1) I'd prefer to avoid having to pick out a "best 2nd place team" if at all possible. 2) Groups of 5 (played home and away) require 10 matchdays. 3) With the above in mind, Concacaf would either have to start WCQ earlier or carry out the 8-team playoff as single-game affairs - and as @EvanJ rightly notes, we all know that the trend in our corner of the world is for single-game matches to end up in the US. Welcome to qualifying for 48-team World Cups. It's going to be a problem everywhere...
I'm posting this without knowing the allocation by confederation for 2030. Even if you believe FIFA will follow what they said for 2026, it could be different for 2030. I made up a format that's simpler than what I posted on Wednesday. With the top section having 12 teams, it will be much easier to be in the Top 12 than in the Top 6 with the current format. Top section: Two Hexagonals. This could eliminate USA vs. Mexico games, but with 6.5 spots there needs to be at least 10 teams in the final round or only round for the top teams. Even if you thought have a group of 10 to choose 6.5 teams was a good idea, there aren't enough matchdays, and if there's going to be two groups then I think groups of 6 are better than groups of 5 with one team having off every matchday. Everyone else: Five groups of 4 and one group of 3. Playoffs: The two fourth place Hexagonal teams and six "everybody else" group winners play three rounds of playoffs, with the winner having a playoff for the 0.5. That's one fewer playoff round than with the current format. Here are comments on the other confederations: UEFA: As long as no third place teams qualify, not many teams will clinch qualification early. CONMEBOL: If the one big group continues and CONMEBOL has at least 6 spots, teams can qualify early. CAF: Rather than ending with five group winners qualifying or with ten group winners having a round against each other, they could end with 7 or 8 or however many groups of 4 to have only the winners qualify, but it could be hard to choose second place teams for playoffs. You could have the best second place teams go to playoffs with the rest of them eliminated. AFC: With about 7 spots they could keep the current format with the top three in each Round 3 group qualifying and the fourth place teams playing for the last spot and playoff spots if they had them. OFC: If they have 1 spot, it will probably be New Zealand. 1.5 or 2 spots would make qualifying more interesting.
That's fair. Ideally it wouldn't be necessary; but, I'm willing to go there - at least in a 'preliminary round' - as a 2nd chance/wild card, I think its better than a lot of other scenarios. I agree I wouldn't want to take the best 2nd if it was the final round for qualification (e.g. your 3rd auto in past years). My bad. Missed that. So would require 16 matchdays - right? QUOTE="Paul Calixte, post: 38239852, member: 147190"] 3) With the above in mind, Concacaf would either have to start WCQ earlier or carry out the 8-team playoff as single-game affairs [/QUOTE] How many match days do we have? I thought my scenario above would work, or does that final nations league run into it? I guess I was thinking we should be OK since CONMEBOL uses 18 (granted, no nations league). Totally agree that I'd prefer to avoid the 1 game playoff.
Conmebol has to start earlier by necessity. Working on the assumption that we'll have back-to-back Nations Leagues, and then the WCQ draw after June window midway in, then we'd have the following windows (2030 cycle): September 2028 October 2028 November 2028 March 2029 June 2029 September 2029 October 2029 That's it, 14 matchdays (November 2029 would be for the intercontinental playoffs). The only alternative would be to start in June 2028 - but if we've kissed and made up with Conmebol by then, the teams bound for the Copa América would push back against having to start WCQ right before that tournament.
Is it necessary to have this whole two-tier thing? I’d rather include more teams in group play while getting rid of true minnows early than keep minnows in contention for more games but have fewer teams in the main tournament.
You're asking me, or Montagliani? It looks like this is his gamble, having Nations League + 2-tiered WCQ to guarantee more games for smaller teams without asking "too much" of the bigger ones. That, and it's worth noting that anyone who comes to mind when you think, "______ got screwed, they could've made the Hex if we had one path for everyone!" will likely make the Top Tier once WC expansion kicks in. If a new Concacaf leadership doesn't revert to a different system, Tier I of WCQ will likely be 10-12 teams.
Like this over anything else I've seen yet. I think it would be pivotal in improving those teams usually ranked 3-10
Using this as a repository for random WCQ musings... If, on the other hand, we take Montagliani at his word when he said that the original 2022 WCQ format was a one-off, I would suggest the following format with the goal of keeping as many teams involved as long as possible: 18 matchdays Top 12 get bye from Round 1 Remaining 23 get drawn into 5 groups of 4 and 1 group of 3 Top 2 in each group (12 total) advance Round 2: Round 1 survivors join Top 12 and get drawn into 6 groups of 4 - top 2 in each (12) advance Round 3: Round 2 survivors get drawn into 3 groups of 4 - top 2 in each qualify for WC, while best 3rd-place team goes to intercontinental playoff 2030 World Cup cycle 2026 September - Concacaf Nations League (CNL) (or Pan-Am Nations League?) Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 2027 March - CNL finals June - Gold Cup September - CNL Matchdays 1-2 October - CNL Matchdays 3-4 November - CNL Matchdays 5-6 2028 March - CNL finals, WCQ Round 1 Matchdays 1-2 June - WCQ Round 1 Matchdays 3-4 (Copa América?) September - WCQ Round 1 Matchdays 5-6 October - WCQ Round 2 Matchdays 1-2 November - WCQ Round 2 Matchdays 3-4 2029 March - WCQ Round 2 Matchdays 5-6 June - WCQ Round 3 Matchdays 1-2 (CWC? Gold Cup?) September - WCQ Round 3 Matchdays 3-4 October - WCQ Round 3 Matchdays 5-6 November - intercontinental playoffs 2030 March - friendlies June - World Cup finals
Here is what I would prefer as a qualifying format for CONCACAF in the 2030 World Cup cycle, with six qualifying places. This probably does not preserve the United States-Mexico games, but it does preserve some tension and competitiveness: First and Second Rounds: Competitions among the smallest minnows to reduce the total field to 32 teams. Third Round: The 32 teams are seeded into four pots. A draw is held to chose eight third-round groups, with each group having one team from each of the four pots. The groups are held, double round-robin style. First place and second place in each group advance to the fourth round. Third place and fourth place in each group are eliminated. Fourth Round: 16 teams are left. They are seeded into four pots. A draw is held to chose four fourth-round groups, with each group having one team from each of the four pots. The groups are held, double round-robin style. First place in each group qualifies for the World Cup. Second place in each group advances to the Fifth Round. Third place and fourth place in each group are eliminated. Fifth round: The four second-place teams from the Fourth Round play either a single round-robin tournament on a neutral site or a double round-robin group with home-and-way games. First place and second place qualify for the World Cup. Third place and fourth place are eliminated.
Considering that both Americas confederations have entered into a strategic partnership, I would hope this would lead to the combined Copa America remaining a 4-yearly event in even years and the end of the Gold Cup. I would also hope it will lead to CONMEBOL teams entering the CNL, while keeping WCQ separate: 6.5 places for both confederations in separate preliminary competitions. One further point to consider is that NL games are usually higher quality than qualifying games because the teams are better matched so each team enters each game with a generally better chance of winning it compared to qualifying games. It is for this reason that UEFA is slightly expanding the NL at the expense of some qualifiers. For Copa America qualifying, I hope both confederations draw the 50 teams into 10 groups of 5 teams each with the games played across the 5 windows in the year before the finals. The group winner and the 5 highest ranked runners-up would qualify together with the host country. I would base the seeding pots for the qualifying draw exclusively on the previous ANL rankings. For World Cup qualifying, I hope CONCACAF draws the 35 teams into 6 groups: 5 groups of 6 teams and one group of 5 teams with the games played across the 5 windows in the year before the WC. The 6 group winners would qualify and the highest ranked runner-up would qualify for the IC playoff which I hope FIFA holds in the March window of the WC year. Below is the calendar I would like to see. 2024 Mar: Americas NL group stage x 2 Jun-Jul: Copa America Sep-Oct: ANL GS x 4 Nov: ANL final four + promotion/relegation home-and-away playoffs (A3-B2 and B3-C2) 2025 Mar, Jun, Sep-Nov: CONCACAF WCQ x 10 2026 Mar: ANL GS x 2 Jun-Jul: World Cup Sep-Oct: ANL GS x 4 Nov: ANL final four + promotion/relegation home-and-away playoffs (A3-B2 and B3-C2) 2027 Mar, Jun, Sep-Nov: Copa America qualifying x 10 (8 games per team) 2028 Mar: ANL GS x 2 Jun-Jul: Copa America Sep-Oct: ANL GS x 4 Nov: ANL final four + promotion/relegation home-and-away playoffs (A3-B2 and B3-C2) 2029 Mar, Jun, Sep-Nov: CONCACAF WCQ x 10 2030 Mar: ANL GS x 2 Jun-Jul: World Cup Sep-Oct: ANL GS x 4 Nov: ANL final four + promotion/relegation home-and-away playoffs (A3-B2 and B3-C2) Four titles - WC, CA and NL x 2 - would be available to win in every cycle, every NT starts every year with a fresh objective, and it should lead to a substantial strengthening of the NT ecosystem across the Americas.
I don't believe FIFA would oblige clubs to release players for both the Gold Cup and Copa America in the same cycle.