So, you're saying that if the Russians help us out we'll still make the playoffs? I admit that the tinfoil hat is getting worn with use, but I still like your train of thought.
Magic number is 18 points. Any combination of Crew lack of points in a match or Toronto (#7 based on less games played than the others) gaining points up to that number.
TFC has 33 points with 9 games remaining and is currently earning 1.32 PPG. So would be expected to earn 11.88 over those nine games, rounded up for a pt total of 45. We are on 26 pts with 8 games remaining. We need 19 points to tie them, with the tiebreaker being wins, I think a tie is good enough. We are on a one PPG pace for the season. As has been mentioned, we're toast: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/th...-doubtful-digits.2105653/page-4#post-38062723 We need to be a playing LAFC ball for 8 games straight. 6-1-1 might just do it. We're toast because 1.0 ppg teams over 26 games don't suddenly become 2.4 ppg teams. Yes, most MLS teams are capable of going on a 3 match winning streak or 5 unbeaten. But only excellent teams play 2.0+ ppg over a longer stretch. It's fun to speculate about, of course there is a chance. The Toast model has proven effective since it's launch in 2007. This team does not seem like one to break it.
Not a hockey fan, apparently. Artemi Panarin left. Nickname: Bread. (Get it? Ha ha! Because his name's PANARIN, which sounds like PANERA, and they sell... shit, never mind.)
Oh, that's a fitting nickname. I now understand all of the "breadman" nonsense that I saw elsewhere on the internet regarding the Blue Jackets. And, I'm a hockey fan inasmuch that the Blue Jackets success is good for the image of Columbus in general, so Go Jackets! I've been to two games, watched a handful (mostly playoffs) on TV, and own one piece of apparel. I'm not opposed to it, just not something I seek out. Oddity: I have been to the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto and own an Edmonton Ice jersey.
We dropped 4 points otherwise we would be 3 points off the last playoff spot . I’m not expecting to beat NYCFC but if we win and beat Cincinnati that gives us 33 points and a winnable gm vrs Chicago. After that the schedule is brutal I think our season is on life support but if we win at NY than anything is possible
We have what a 1% chance move? Let’s beat Chicago and then we can tie them for 10th place . I believe Orlando will lose at San Jose - that puts us 1pt behind them but they do have a GK in hand I think we can get 9th place to end the season Montreal has two home games very unlikely that they lose or even draw both games. They also have a lot of home games including one vrs FCC I don’t think we can catch them Toronto plays at NE and very well could lose and we play them again they have a lot of games on the road. Maybe we can catch them but I doubt it . I think Montreal will catch them and we can possibly eliminate TFC from the playoffs on that last weekend We have 0% chance to catch NE, DC or anyone above them .
One win in the last four doomed us. Win the FCC & TFC home matches and we are sitting on 34 points right now. A real shot, albeit a long shot given the schedule. I think 43-45 pts are needed for any shot at all, and winning out puts us at 45. Still, win next week, keep hope alive for one more week. Hope for help. If we win next week AND pull off a miracle win in ATL, then I may start to dream again.
I expect a win over Chicago but best case is a draw vrs Atlanta and yeah we need lots of help which i don’t see happening
It has been for 4 weeks and we dropped 7 of them so the answer is probably more than what we can get.
Look at the huge jump in percentage between Chicago and Montreal...but only one point separates them (at time of this post.)
6 dropped home pts would have us with 37 points and still a long shot. We may not be mathematically eliminated yet but this loss gives us about a 1 in a million chance
I am off my meds and accept the Carriie Matheson Crew playoff challenge. OK, I will go full Carrie Matheson for the Crew here. Off my meds. Generally speaking, this is all moot if the Crew do not win out. IF we do, we would finish on 43 points with 12 wins. The only non-43 point scenario where we get in with less is with 41 points and involve ties with NE and/or Orlando & Chicago. We have a full week of rest for each of our last 3 games (at Vancouver on 9/21, home to Philly on 9/29, and at Toronto on 10/6). For Philly, our game will be their 3rd in 8 days (at NYRB, then at SJ, then at Crew). Toronto will have a full week’s rest for the Crew game, but will have played 5 games in 15 days prior to full week of rest for the Crew game. It is also possible that TFC could be locked in 4th place and have nothing to play for come the finale. That would be nice. Vancouver will be fully rested, but are already eliminated (though that did not stop them from winning this week). There are four playoff teams who still have less than 43 points: TFC (42 points, 11 wins), DC (42 points, 11 wins), NYRB (41 points, 12 wins), and NE (40 points, 10 wins). In any scenario where they finish on 43 points, we win the tiebreaker with TFC, DC, and NE. We would lose the tiebreaker to NYRB unless we make up 12 goals of GD in the last 8 games (3 wins for us, and 2 draws & 3 losses for them). We lose any 41 point tie with NYRB (less wins). We win any 41 point tie scenario with NE. There are three more teams ahead of us in the standings but still out of the PO spots: MTL (37 points, 11 wins), Orlando (37 points, 9 wins), Chicago (36 points, 9 wins). We would win any 43 point or 41 point tie with Chicago or Orlando, but would lose any 43 or 41 point tie with MTL. Generally speaking, there are some tough schedules (NE, NYRB, & MTL) and some real busy schedules (MTL, TFC, NYRB). NE ha the toughest run in (RSL, at Port, NYC, at ATL). So a poor finish is not out of the question. Let us start with the 4 teams ahead of us in PO position, that we can still catch. A dive into what each team has left. But I will break it up into smaller chunks for the long post averse.
OK, Matheson 2.0: teams in PO position: Let's start with the team in 7th and work our way up, since TFC (hosting Colorado), DC (leading in Portland 1-0 as I type), and NYRB (at Seattle) can all put themselves out of reach with wins today. Rank, Club, Games Played, Points, Wins, GD, Last 5: Schedule: 7. NE, 30, 40, 10, -7, DLDWD: RSL (9/21), at Port (9/25), NYC (9/29), at ATL (10/6). . Our best shot. NE needs 4 pts to put themselves beyond our reach. They play 3 games in 8 days starting on 9/21. All are against PO teams. 3/4 are vs. top 3 teams in their conference, and Portland could be top 3 if they win today vs. DC (though they train 0-1 on an OG at the moment). We would win any tie-breaker with NE on 43, 41, or 40 points (we'd have more wins). That RSL game is key, a loss would really increase the possibility of finishing at 43 or lower if they were sitting on 40 points with at Portland, NYC at home, and at Atlanta left. ======================= Won't break down TFC, DC, or NYRB because the chances of catching any of them are much more remote, and all 3 can make it an impossibility with wins today. Let's see how that goes. But I will say TFC and NYRB can both help us a bit. TFC play at Chicago the next to last game, and NYRB play at Montreal the last game. MTL has to drop points in 2 of their last 3 (almost certainly) for us to pass them (the exception being 3 draws and tying at 40 points). And we need Chicago to drop points somewhere (at Cincy, TFC, at ORL). But I will save that for deeper dives on MTL, ORL, and Chicago that will follow. For now, go Portland, go Seattle, and go Colorado.