How many points do we need for a playoff spot ?

Discussion in 'Columbus Crew SC' started by TRUJDUB, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Your guess is mine but if we can win our 4 home games that is 12 pts and if we can win what maybe 3 road games that’s 21 points which would give us 42 and not be enough. But it would be good regardless to finish on a strong note to build towards next year.

    If we win more than 7 of our next games first we will need some health which hasn’t been on our side and we need a few teams to fall apart.

    This season will be much more enjoyable now that we got some new players and a actual GK.
     
  2. hardhead

    hardhead Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 2008
    NEO
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Looking back over the last 5 years, 50 points is about where the line is drawn, give or take a couple (2016 was an outlier at 42).

    We need 27 points in 11 matches (2.45 ppg), a nearly impossible task for almost any MLS side historically. Even if we are getting better, we still are middling, so I'm not holding my breath for the 9-0-2 or 8-2-1 that it would take. Even to get to 42 would take 6-1-4.

    So...if we go on a 5 or 6 match winning streak now maybe we could start getting excited but otherwise keep expectations focused on building (and destroying) for next season.
     
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  3. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember, they expanded the playoffs up to 7 teams this year. So in general, the number should be a bit lower.


    We have 11 games left. 7 wins and 1 draw probably won't be enough. Though it would obviously keep us in the picture for a while. 8 wins and 1 draw might actually give us a realistic shot, though it certainly wouldn't guarantee anything.

    Suffice it to say, the odds are pretty long.
     
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  4. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    I'm taking the under.
     
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  5. LaMacchia

    LaMacchia Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    More than the team in 8th place in the east.

    One game at a time, my friend.
     
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  6. Pauncho

    Pauncho Member+

    Mar 2, 1999
    Bexley, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I've been a sports fan for a long time. Mostly pro sports. The American system has a lot not to like, but it does create a meaningful space for smaller-market and otherwise non-elite teams to do well some of the time. Would Green Bay or Buffalo have a chance if the NFL were run like the EPL?

    The flip side of all this is, sometimes a team will stumble or fail to meet expectations. There can be key or cluster injuries (Higuain, Mensah, Afful, Sauro, Valenzuela, add who you want). Key guys can get old or go flat (Zardes). Really useful stars can go to greener pastures (Steffan). Some of this happens to almost every team almost every year, but when too much happens to key components, doo-doo happens. Lost seasons happen, that's what creates the space for other teams to shine.

    I have adopted the mindset that this is the season of celebrating what I do have: a team to to see and support six miles from where I live, with the hope for better times soon. Something Jay Anthony Precourt and Don Garber tried mightily to take away from me. I agree with the other posters this is the best front office we have ever had. I look forward to 2022 and beyond, even though I expect to be paying twice or three times as much. And I am having a pretty good time with this mindset. If I abandoned this mindset and clung to a determination that my team dug itself so far out of this hole that they finished seventh, I'd be having an awful time with the near-inevitable disappointment.

    If the Ohio State football team wins three-quarters of their games they fire the coach. Too many Columbus fans have lived with that standard all their lives and instinctively think it is normal. A fan of a pro team, especially one in a small market, is guaranteed permanent disappointment with that mindset.
     
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  7. KCbus

    KCbus Moderator
    Staff Member

    United States
    Nov 26, 2000
    Reynoldsburg, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #7 KCbus, Jul 22, 2019
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 23, 2019
    Being realistic. hang is going to lose his mind.
     
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  8. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Montreal sits 7th with 30 pts from 23 games. Roughly 1.3 points per game.

    For 34 games, that is 44.3 points. Assuming MTL, TFC, ORL, or Chicago do not better that coming home, we would need 23 points from our last 11 games. A hair over 2 ppg. Extremely unlikely.

    Perhaps they all slump. We do have 2 vs Cincy (H/A), 2 vs TFC (H/A), a home game vs Chicago, and an away game vs Vancouver. That is six extremely winnable games. Pencil in 12 points there if we have any shot at all. Probably need to do better.

    Try to snatch 9 points from the remaining 5 games (at NYRB, at SJ, at NYC, at ATL, Philly).

    If we do better vs the other teams below the line, adjust the 9 pt target downward.

    Anyway, shoot for 42 and hope that is enough. FWIW, LAFC is the only team in MLS above 2 ppg. Although for a shorter span it is doable (NE unbeaten in 10).
     
  9. YITBOS

    YITBOS Member

    Jul 2, 2001
    1.3 hours from CCS
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Where's the faith?? I will take you up on that with some Kyle Crew Beer. We are in for a Massive Streak -- late '80s Indians style

    [​IMG]
     
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  10. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I agree if i was on the team playing but I’m just a fan so .....
     
  11. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    We have 2 wins since April 7th. Maybe we can slow our roll.

    Develop the young players. See which of the new acquisitions have a place on the team next year. Put the likes of Williams and Clark out to pasture.
     
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  12. Grouchy

    Grouchy Member+

    turkey bacon with swiss
    Apr 18, 1999
    Canal Winchester
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm disappointed. Not one Google Docs spreadsheet with the mathematical odds of the inevitable success of falling just short of the playoffs?

    We need to win 3 and tie 1 more games than the current barely scraping by to get in the playoff teams. Out of 11 matches or 33 points remaining.

    So 10 points assuming the teams at 7 and 8 absolutely implode and play to lose every single match left in the season.

    Realistically, you are probably looking at least 6 wins out of the 11 remaining matches; i.e. 18 points just to have a mildly reasonable chance.

    If we can win 8 of the remaining 11 there is a decent chance with 24 points three of the four teams above us will continue their average to mediocre seasons allowing us to slip into the playoffs.

    Lets say miracle of miracles we go on an unprecedented winning stream and just momma freakin' frakkin' win all remaining games and earn 33 points we should make the playoffs then probably fail a la Tampa Bay Lightning or something like that.
     
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  13. don gagliardi

    don gagliardi Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    Feb 28, 2004
    san jose
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Would Liverpool or Manchester if English soccer had historically been run like the EPL?
     
  14. Pauncho

    Pauncho Member+

    Mar 2, 1999
    Bexley, Ohio
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Manchester City, a big yes. Manchester United, not so much.
     
  15. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    We lost 8 games by 1 goal i think 7 wins is possible we win the 4 home games and 3 of the 7 road games . Anything is possible and if they can get 2 draws or 1 win on this next two road games it will help . I sincerely doubt we beat NY and SJ but if they did they would be right in the mix
     
  16. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    We have the most home losses in the league. We have one road win. Pump the breaks.
     
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  17. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    We also had a joke for a roster , the games we dropped while Steffen was here was the most disappointing because we knew there would be a huge drop off till we found another GK. Hopefully Room can make a difference on goals allowed while the new strikers and wingers hopefully help our anemic attack.

    Now I’m going to need you to get the hype train going because your boy Zardes needs to start scoring goals especially on the road
     
  18. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Relax, Hang. No one is saying it is likely, but the question was asked and answered.

    BTW, Zardes scored last road game, IIRC.
     
  19. TRUJDUB

    TRUJDUB Member+

    Nov 22, 2015
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I know but he hasn’t scored many on the road the stat was shocking
     
  20. LaMacchia

    LaMacchia Member+

    Jul 12, 2008
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just enjoy the ride, y'all.
     
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  21. odave

    odave Member+

    Jul 29, 2010
    SE Michigan
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    I've found Knave's toast thread over on the N&A boards to provide playoff forecasting in an accurate and entertaining way. He hasn't started this year's up yet but is starting to get requests.
     
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  22. zman31

    zman31 Member+

    May 5, 1999
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We will be toast on the debut of the list almost assuredly. I believe his calculations for "toast" are that if a team needs to average more than 2pts a game to catch the 7th place team's current ppg pace, they are toasted. We're already toast.
     
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  23. YITBOS

    YITBOS Member

    Jul 2, 2001
    1.3 hours from CCS
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Stop trying to rain on the parade. I admit that my fandom possibly has me emotionally careening into a wall at 100mph. Regardless, I'm not going to sit and stew for the next year while we still have a snowball's chance.

    So, get fukt about your breaks. I'm settling in for a wild ride.
     
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  24. hangthadj

    hangthadj Member+

    A.S. Roma
    Mar 27, 2001
    Beacon, NY
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Shoulda been #brakes. My bad.

    The last two games we've been out possessed. We've been out shot a combined 30 - 23. We've played a bad Chicago team where we needed a 90th minute equalizer. And a mid-table Montreal team that by their own coaches recognition looked disinterested and they still managed to best us in most statistical categories.

    So, if getting fukt is looking at the big picture, seeing where are, and having an eye towards a long term plan as well as hoping for the playoffs I'm getting tantric baby. I'm living life in the pleasure dome.
     
  25. DGA57v2

    DGA57v2 Member

    Columbus Crew
    United States
    Apr 1, 2019
    To answer the original question, I would say "All of them". ;)
     
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