How does USMNT failure impact MLS?

The initial hit won't be so bad, but the fallout will likely get everyone.

 

I guess I'm just not that economically inclined, but I don't see how this is going to harm MLS much, at least not in the near term.

I don't see it affecting attendance much. Unless Fox and ESPN have it written into their contracts that the MNT must be in the World Cup, I don't see it affecting the TV contract. I don't imagine that MLS receives too much money directly from USSF. As far as I know, MLS sponsorships are not tied into the MNT. What am I missing?

This isn't three cycles ago, when something like this may very well have killed MLS. MLS is stable now.

Now, I can certainly see ESPN/Fox coming to the table for the next TV contract and demanding that they get a better deal because of what went down. That would hurt in the medium-term. Of course, that assumes that some other network wouldn't outbid them. It is also possible that sweeping changes in the USSF, if you are the optimistic type, might force MLS to change how it does things, but that is pretty speculative.

 

Just speculating, but it seems like a lot of US soccer fans can trace their interest in the sport to following the US in a past World Cup. Impossible to quantify this of course. Not all of those people end up following MLS, or perhaps some "catch on" to MLS years later. So we'll never be able to know. But perhaps some such folks might not develop an interest in the league, at least not for a few more years.

But yeah....thank goodness this happened in 2017 and not 2001.

 

The MLS TV contract is bundled with the USSF contract. FOX will be pissed, without the USMNT to goose ratings (especially with those early morning start times). USSF will lose out on millions in sponsorships. MLS won't be directly affected; they've already got the money from the TV deal. But there will be secondary impacts for sure. Lucky for them, the next TV contract isn't up until after the 2022 World Cup. Let's hope they can qualify for that one. Or they move it from Qatar.

 

I suspect it'll be considered an absolute disaster by the top brass in MLS.

It is a league that is stable and viable but still has pitiful television viewing figures. That, coupled with the fact that MLS is the national league for a nation that can't even get into the world cup in the easiest qualifying region doesn't exactly leave the MLS suits with a very strong hand when TV contract negotiations next come round.

So in conclusion, it won't necessarily make MLS any worse, but IMO it will make it ten times harder to progress the league to the level they aspire to any time soon.

 

This is pretty much it. MLS last time got a TV deal that was well in excess of what their ratings deserved. Without a drastic increase in ratings, it will be impossible to walk into FOX/ESPN and ask for a major increase. Though the Univision ratings are pretty good, so maybe go with them as the primary rights holder. Get an OTA game Saturday afternoon, at least...

 

Missed World Cups happen for countries which aren't Brazil. (Or at least they do until next cycle.) There's no contractual harm that comes to MLS. It's a missed opportunity, to be sure, but not something else.

 

Won't affect MLS directly, but a deep US run ( ) would have given the league a chance to market MLS-based players to the casual fan. More a lost opportunity for the league and sport in this country than a catastrophic setback.

 

As an MLS fan, I look forward to USMNT players being able to concentrate on the league next season without being exhausted from all the WC play.

 

Four or five years ago, when Mexico was in a down period, everyone looked at the number of foreign players in LigaMx and concluded that was the cause of their problems. The Mexican player couldn't develop. Now--everyone talks about the overall quality of LigaMx helping El Tri.

Prepare for MLS to get blamed with the same "foreigner" or "development" straw man, as well.

MLS's role in helping to develop the American player is to get better as a league--better international players (prime players, not aging Pirlos), better coaching from outside the league instead of newly retired players, and real academies, not whatever passes for an effort at it in outposts like New England or Colorado.

My greatest fear is that US Soccer's failures will be an excuse for MLS's cheaper owners to slow growth down to virtually nil, and that will hurt the American player more than anything.

 

I've been slightly worried that MLS was engaging in a bit of an economic bubble in the current growth rate. If this stalls growth so that the current teams can establish more solid foundations, that may be a good thing, long term.

 

I think it just gives some ammunition to the Euro Snobs. The guys that think players like Altidore, Dempsey, and Bradley regressed after coming back to the league. They will continue to hate on MLS and blame the league for the failure of the National Team.

 

MLS might lose a head coach.
(And will have the opportunity to regain one with significant experience.)

 

Omar Gonzalez regressed after leaving MLS, so it's a mixed bag.

 

I think MLS, and the club level as a whole, will feel some impact. However, it won't be anything remotely close to "catastrophic." MLS has always had a "World Cup bump," but all 2018 amounts too is a missed opportunity to try and pull in new or more casual fans.

Places like Atlanta or Cincinnati packing stadiums has had basically nothing to do with how the national side has been playing. Struggling clubs like Colorado, New England, and Dallas may feel it more tough, since they already have a harder time attracting more casual fans.

The more dedicated/hardcore fan world will not change at all. In fact, fan culture from the USMNT has generally been drifting in a different direction from US club fan culture. I don't think there is nearly as much crossover as there was 10 to 15 years ago.

 

I guess we'll find out. Although if hang-on-for-dear-life World Cup "runs" were a major reason for domestic stability, MLS was screwed all along.

 

My hope is that, come February, the USSF, MLS, and lower divisions get together and hammer out a new path, much like what Twellman ranted about on ESPN last night. I'm not naive enough to believe that there will be sweeping changes---in fact I feel in a lot of ways that the US is on the right track. However, if the USSF ends up having any real power after the NASL lawsuit and the new (hopefully) USSF prez has the ability to do so, I would like to see some changes.

This would not be popular, but I feel one way of improving MLS and the MNT would be to cut down the number of playoff games. It won't happen because MLS feels that it is great exposure and revenue, but I feel it would make a difference. It would give players and teams more to fight for if, say, there were only two or three playoff spots open per conference. It would also give more opportunities to young Americans (and those of other nations) once teams are out of the playoff hunt. I am sure it won't happen, though.

 

Not that we'll ever know, but I wonder which is/would be worse, not qualifying for the world cup, or making it and stinking up the joint with a dreadful 3 and out performance on the big stage?

 

History will answer that by what changes occur in US soccer over the next few years. If nothing happens, then not qualifying is easily the worst outcome. If big, positive changes do happen, then the argument can be made that not qualifying would be superior to a hypothetical 3-and-out.

 

Soccer is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay more established in other countries too. This is not a valid comparison.

 

I don't think it is a straw or the reason USMNT failed but MLS unequivocally has benefited many of the national programs in CONCACAF. I am not saying that is bad. It is fact though.

 

Not qualifying impacts the flow of the SUM money spigot. It scares away future sponsors. It complicates future TV deals.

The identities of MLS and US Soccer are intertwined in a way unlike almost any other country in the world.

If the best we could get when US Soccer was flush with cash was Jurgen Klinsmann, what now?

It's tough getting organizations to pony up money on the heels of such a disaster, and yet that's exactly what it's going to take to bring about the necessary change.

 

The World Cup TV rights were sold separately by FIFA and aren't related to the USSF/MLS tv contract.. Fox and ESPN might actually get a few more USMNT broadcasts against better teams as the countries that did make the World Cup will now be approaching USSF see if they are interested in being part of their World Cup tune-up.