That conclusion is wrong. Given that a game wasn't a scoreless draw, there is a 6,75% chance that the first goal was scored in the 76th minute or later. The data does not tell anything about the likelihood of goals being scored compared to the likelihood of a scoreless draw.
Actually it's not like that, as already written by EvanJ. My statistic is only about the chance that the first goal is scored in a specific segment, but only among the matches where a goal was scored. I haven't considered the games ended 0-0. When you arrive at the 75th minute and no goal has been scored, you have 2 possible outcomes: either a goal will be scored before the end, either the game will end 0-0. I will calculate the statistic during the next week so there will be also this weekend's results, but in the meantime think about the English Premier League until now (today's matches excluded): 200 matches played, 11 ended 0-0 (5,5%) and 16 games where the first goal was scored after the 75th minute (8%). This means that when you are at the 75th minute and the result is still 0-0, it's actually more likely that a goal will be scored: 8/(8+5,5)=59,26%. If you think about that, an odd of 2-2.5 would be a bit high if the chances were 93,25% All the matches played in this campaign (2016/2017) in the top leagues of those countries (EPL, Ligue 1, Bundesliga, etc...) until the 10th of January.
You are right! Thank you for the explanation. Do you the same table, but analysing how many matches have scored in each interval? For example, one match scored 1 goal in 1-15min and 3 goals in 76-90min. So, this table would count 1 in 1-15min and 1 (not 3) in 76-90min. In this case, the sum in the row can be more than 100% and each cell will be up to 100%. The table would show the percentage of matches that scored in each interval. Thanks
About your example with English Premier League. then If i get odds > 1.69 (1/59%) in 75 minutes would be +EV? Lets say odd=1.80 and stake 1,0 for over 0.5 goals bet on 75min. EV = 0,8 x 59% (win) - 1,0 x 41% (loss) = 0,062 or 6,2%
These are the data about the first goal of the match for the 2016/2017 campaign until 16 of January, including the percentage of games ended 0-0 (last column). Code: 1-15 16-30 31-45 46-60 61-75 76-90 >90 no goals England 26,67% 21,90% 21,90% 8,10% 7,62% 6,19% 1,90% 5,71% France 28,79% 21,72% 16,67% 11,62% 7,07% 3,54% 1,52% 9,09% Germany 29,17% 21,53% 18,06% 8,33% 9,72% 5,56% 0,69% 6,94% Italy 29,95% 15,74% 20,81% 14,21% 5,58% 5,58% 1,02% 7,11% Portugal 28,10% 25,49% 15,69% 7,19% 7,84% 5,88% 1,96% 7,84% Spain 26,82% 21,79% 14,53% 15,64% 7,82% 2,23% 1,68% 9,50% Global 28,21% 21,18% 18,13% 11,01% 7,49% 4,81% 1,48% 7,68% I will try to do that. I am no expert of betting, so actually I cannot be of any help about this.