Goal timing

Discussion in 'Statistics and Analysis' started by Nicola1975, Nov 21, 2014.

  1. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    This is the distribution, for each 15 minutes segment, of the goals scored so far this season in the English Premier League.
    The redder the cell, the more goals the team scored.

    [​IMG]

    22,59% of the goals were scored in the last 15 minutes, and 42,19% in the last 30 (always including the injury time).

    The record of goals scored in one segment belongs to Manchester City, who so far scored 8 times in the last 15 minutes (including the injury time).
    Aston Villa never scored in the last 30 minutes, as Newcastle in the first 30.

    At this link you find a visualization with the distribution of goals scored, goals conceded, the difference (scored - conceded) and the sum (scored + conceded) of goals for each segment.

    In the next weeks I will also make comparisons with other European leagues.
     
  2. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If you post or start a conversation (private message) with me with your e-mail address I'll send you a file that lists the minute of every goal in the 2010-2011 UEFA Champions League Group Stage. BigSoccer lets you upload some files but not from Excel.
     
  3. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Thank you, but I prefer the leagues because there are more matches and more goals. The Group Stage is too short to have a significant analysis.

    This is the distribution for the top 5 European leagues until now, excluding this weekend's games (red = lowest percentage, green = highest percentage).
    I separated the goals scored after the 90° minute, to get a more balanced result (otherwise too many goals seemed to be scored between the 75° and the 90°). The goals scored in the first half injury time are counted inside the "31-45" segment, but they shouldn't be too many.

    [​IMG]

    It is clear that most of the goals are scored in the last 15 minutes of the two halves of the match. Very few are scored in the first 15 minutes.
    A good percentage of goals are scored in the injury time, especially in Spain, England and France.

    I will make an analysis also on the distribution by team and players (if something interesting comes out).
    I will also upload the results for the past seasons; though I managed to get the minutes of the goals quite fast, I had to detect manually the goals scored after the 90° minute, so I think that this kind of analysis on the past years could take some time.

    Does anyone know a site where I can easily get the goals scored after the 90° minute? The ideal site should have all the matches and the scorers in one page (or divided by month or week), not a separate page for each game.
     
  4. chickensoup

    chickensoup New Member

    Nov 25, 2014
    Goal stats regarding when Goals are scored are more accurate/important stats than many other Soccer stats. I usually dont pay much attenton to stats when betting, except this Kind.
     
  5. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    These are the teams who scored the most in the injury time (after 90th minute):
    Arsenal (ENG, 5 goals)
    Porto (POR, 4)
    Espanyol (ESP, 4)
    Lazio (ITA, 3)
    Roma (ITA, 3)
    Lyon (FRA, 3)
    Marseille (FRA, 3)
    Monaco (FRA, 3)
    Sporting CP (POR, 3)

    These are the ones who scored the most in the first 15 minutes of the match:
    Valencia (ESP, 9 goals)
    Wolfsburg (GER, 8)
    Chelsea (ENG, 7)
    Benfica (POR, 7)
    Moenchengladbach (GER, 7)
    Stoke City (ENG, 6)
    Sporting CP (POR, 6)
    Real Madrid (ESP, 6)

    As you can see, Sporting CP are present in both the rankings; they have a curious distribution of goals:
    1-15: 6 goals
    16-30: 1
    31-45: 2
    46-60: 3
    61-75: 6
    76-90: 4
    >90: 3
    They score very few goals between 16th and 60th minute, but they balance scoring more in the rest of the match, injury time included.
     
  6. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    This is the goal distribution updated as of today, with the addition of Portugal.
    Now all the countries are aligned regarding the time segment with the fewest goals (first 15 minutes).

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    I'm trying to understand when the best teams score the most.
    In this table there are the top 10 teams by number of goals scored in each time segment, until yesterday (included).
    [​IMG]

    And these are the positions in the league rankings of the same teams.
    [​IMG]

    The averages of the positions for each segment are as follows:
    1-15: 3,8
    16-30: 3,6
    31-45: 5,3
    46-60: 6,8
    61-75: 3
    76-90: 4,2
    >90: 4,2
    So the best period for the top teams is from the 61st to the 75th minute; but also the 76-90 period is better than others, because it has a position average of 4,2 but with the outlier of Caen, who are 18th in the Ligue 1.
     
  8. bgghost

    bgghost New Member

    Feb 14, 2015
    Nicola1975 repped this.
  9. bgghost

    bgghost New Member

    Feb 14, 2015
    If you want, contact me and I'll try to help you with all this goal-timing issues. Or if you need any specific statistic. Just reply in the topic. I can offer you more complex info for 15min intervals, 10 min intervals. You name it, I will help. Free of charge of course.
     
  10. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Thank you, also for the link.
    I have all the lists of the goals scored for single minute, so it is not a problem to aggregate them in any interval of time.
    My only difficulty is to separate the goals scored after the 90th minute, because all the sites that I know with this kind of statistics include them in the last segment (for example 76+).
    Currently I have to do it manually, because I don't find any site that provide this stat as a separate datum. Do you know any?
    Thanks again.
     
    bgghost repped this.
  11. bgghost

    bgghost New Member

    Feb 14, 2015
    Why do you want to separate the goals after the 90th minute? I have this info, but as far as you can not bet after the 90' what's the point? Also sometimes the goals after the 90min. are just checked at 90. But the info is findable on the net. I have the info and I can help you. So if you are looking for a particular league let me know. I have this info for the current season only, but i can find it for previous seasons. I'm just doing other things now. Researching different forums what kind of statistics the people need to make their bets. Because this is my hobby and I made a site, but the site needs more work, so i'm looking for ideas /even though most of the people have no idea what the stats are for/. What's your opinion for the site in general?
     
  12. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Oh so that is your own site?
    I think it is a great work, very good for people who want to bet, because you put in a lot of statistics, especially I think it is useful to compare the two teams playing against each other, so you can know what kind of result or evolution of the game you should expect.

    I am no expert about betting, and my research about the goal timing is only for statistics, so I don't like that the goals after the 90th are considered to be scored at 90th, otherwise it seems that the last segment of a game (76-90) is almost always the one with most goals.
    To simplify my work I would need a page like this, but with the correct indication of the minute of the goals after the 90th (on that site they are all at 90th).
    So after having scraped this site, I go to soccerpunter site and check individually every goal scored at the 90th, to see if it was actually scored after the 90th.
    I already have the data updated to the last weekend, because if I do it weekly it is not a long work; however I would like something automatic, it would be great to have a site like the one I linked above, with the monthly (or weekly) list of all the goals but with the information about the goals after the 90th.
    Thank you for your support and congratulations for the site :)
     
    bgghost repped this.
  13. bgghost

    bgghost New Member

    Feb 14, 2015
    I pretty much have to do the same to be sure the stats are accurate after90min. But the bookies close the game for betting at around 89min. so i don''t really need the exact min after the 90. I don''t know where to get this info as raw info, you always have to click on every single game.
     
  14. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    This is the table at the end of the 2014/2015 season.
    Code:
               1-15    16-30    31-45    46-60    61-75    76-90     >90     goals
                                                                            scored
    England   13,23%   15,59%   18,36%   14,97%   16,72%   16,92%   4,21%      975
    France    12,46%   14,15%   17,53%   15,10%   17,32%   19,01%   4,44%      947
    Germany   12,57%   14,47%   16,96%   16,25%   16,01%   20,05%   3,68%      843
    Italy     12,21%   16,89%   17,09%   16,31%   17,58%   15,14%   4,79%     1024
    Portugal  11,40%   12,71%   16,78%   19,27%   14,94%   19,40%   5,50%      763
    Spain     11,10%   14,27%   19,82%   15,06%   16,45%   18,63%   4,66%     1009
    
    Global    12,17%   14,78%   17,82%   16,04%   16,58%   18,07%   4,53%     5561
    The top segments were the last of the two halves.
    In Portugal many goals were also scored at the beginning of the second half, and in Italy in the middle of the second half.
    In all these countries, the least prolific segment was the first (1-15).
    The highest percentage was in Germany during the last 15 minutes (169 out of 843, meaning 20,05% of the total goals).
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  15. AdrianAlex

    AdrianAlex New Member

    Mar 10, 2016
    Club:
    AC Milan
    Hi again,

    I actually came here to check for other alternatives to my soccer statistic sources, but I accidentaly realized I can be of help for you :).
    All these data are available in one place - I reccomend you soccerkeep.com for detailed analysis. Select the league and go to Timing tab....you have all needed data there.

    If you know any other similar sites, please share.
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  16. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Hi, thank you for your reply :)
    I know that site, also soccerstats and http://football.hkjc.com/football/statistics/english/centre/DataCentral-leagues.aspx?ci=en-us have those kind of stats (the latter by 5 minutes segments), but I don't know any site (including those ones) that separates the statistics for the 75-90 segment from the >90 segment.
    They do that because you cannot bet on a goal scored after the 90th, but doing this way it seems that all the teams score a lot of goals in the last 15 minutes, which is not true, because it's actually a segment of at least 18 minutes, sometimes 20 or more.
    Do you know any website that separates the goals scored after the 90th minutes?
     
  17. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    These are the data regarding the 2015/2016 season, updated as of 24th March 2016.
    Code:
               1-15    16-30    31-45    46-60    61-75    76-90    >90
    
    England   11,00%   16,31%   16,56%   16,56%   16,69%   18,58%  4,30%
    France    12,50%   14,19%   16,67%   16,28%   17,06%   18,36%  4,95%
    Germany   10,81%   15,41%   17,48%   16,00%   18,07%   18,37%  3,85%
    Italy     12,25%   15,42%   16,47%   16,21%   17,26%   15,81%  6,59%
    Portugal  15,41%   13,90%   15,56%   16,77%   16,01%   18,73%  3,63%
    Spain     14,37%   16,57%   15,10%   16,32%   14,98%   18,51%  4,14%
    
    Global    12,71%   15,35%   16,29%   16,35%   16,64%   18,05%  4,60%
    
    Unlike last season (when the last segments of the two halves were the most prolific), now there is a general increasing in scoring while the matches go towards the end.
    The first 15 minutes are the less prolific everywhere, except in Portugal, where teams score less during the 16-30 segment.
    On the contrary, Italian Serie A is the only league where the most prolific segment is not the last one, but from 61st to 75th.
     
  18. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    These are the data until 24th March 2016 regarding the clubs who scored the most in each segment.
    1-15: Real Madrid (Spain) 16 goals
    16-30: Real Madrid (Spain) 17
    31-45 (including 1st half injury time): Barcelona and Real Madrid (Spain) 15
    46-60: Barcelona (Spain) 20
    61-75: Bayern Munich (Germany) 20
    76-90: Real Madrid (Spain) 17
    91+: Borussia Dortmund (Germany) and Lazio (Italy) 6

    These are the data regarding the clubs who scored the largest percentage of their own goals in each segment.
    1-15: Troyes (France) 22,73%
    16-30: Deportivo La Coruña (Spain) 30,77%
    31-45 (including 1st half injury time): Ajaccio (France) 32,26%
    46-60: União Madeira (Portugal) 33,33%
    61-75: Aston Villa (England) 40,91%
    76-90: Köln (Germany) 32,14%
    91+: Lazio (Italy) 15,79%
     
  19. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    These are the data until 23rd April 2016 regarding the players who scored the most in each segment of the match (only league matches).
    1-15: 5 players with 6 goals each
    Benzema (Real Madrid)
    Higuain (Napoli)
    Javi Guerra (Rayo Vallecano)
    Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
    Borja Bastón (Eibar)
    16-30: 4 players with 6 goals each
    Lucas Pérez (Deportivo la Coruña)
    Benzema (Real Madrid)
    Slimani (Sporting CP)
    Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid)
    31-45
    Ibrahimovic (Paris SG) 7 goals
    46-60
    Lewandowski (Bayern Munich) 10 goals
    61-75: 2 players with 8 goals
    Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
    Hernández (Bayer Leverkusen)
    76-90
    Slimani (Sporting CP) 7 goals
    91+
    Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund) 4 goals
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  20. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Suarez has scored the most goals of anybody in one of the top leagues but he doesn't lead for any of the segments.
     
    Nicola1975 repped this.
  21. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    I didn't consider the last match (where he scored other 4 goals), so his stats are:
    1-15: 3
    16-30: 3
    31-45: 3
    46-60: 8
    61-75: 6
    76-90: 6
    91+: 1

    Considering also the last match, the totals for 61-75 and 76-90 segments would raise up to 8 each.
     
    EvanJ repped this.
  22. alexdbarros

    alexdbarros New Member

    Jan 2, 2017
    Hi Nicolas

    Do you have the stats about when the first was scored?

    It could be the table as above (country x minutes), but only with 1st goal.

    Thanks
     
  23. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    Hi, yes I have the data but I have to create a new routine to group them in the correct way.
    On these days I am busy so I won't be able to do that, but I will try it as soon as possible.
     
  24. Nicola1975

    Nicola1975 Member

    Oct 15, 2014
    Club:
    Vicenza Calcio
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    These are the data about the first goal of the match for the 2016/2017 campaign until 10 of January
    Code:
               1-15    16-30    31-45    46-60    61-75    76-90    >90
    
    England   27,13%   23,94%   23,40%    9,04%    7,98%    6,38%  2,13%
    France    31,58%   23,39%   18,13%   12,87%    8,19%    4,09%  1,75%
    Germany   31,34%   23,13%   19,40%    8,96%   10,45%    5,97%  0,75%
    Italy     32,56%   16,28%   22,67%   14,53%    6,40%    6,40%  1,16%
    Portugal  29,77%   29,01%   18,32%    7,63%    7,63%    5,34%  2,29%
    Spain     28,76%   24,18%   16,99%   17,65%    8,50%    1,96%  1,96%
    
    Global    30,14%   23,08%   20,02%   11,91%    8,11%    5,06%  1,69%
     
  25. alexdbarros

    alexdbarros New Member

    Jan 2, 2017
    Nicolas, thank you!

    One conclusion about the stats: if a goal has not been made until 75 minutes, there is a 6,75% chance (Global) to be made until end of the match.

    That is awesome, because I can bet Under 0.5 after that with 93,25% chance to win (odds normally between 2.5 and 2.0 by this time). What do you think?

    How many matches in your study?

    Thanks
     

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