Can u balieve it? SPDs Vice chancellor will not run for chancellor but Martin Schulz. This is like Hillary had given the candidacy to Sanders Gesendet von meinem SM-G901F mit Tapatalk
So AfD surely must have some party going on at their headquarters knowing they will run against refugee's Angie and Martin from Brussels.
And Schulz' nomination not only saw SPD soar by 3 points but also create this nice meme https://www.reddit.com/r/the_schulz/ "Godchancellor" Schulz
Angie's in Turkey getting bitchslapped verbally by Erdowahn - just the right time for another devastating poll to come in direct election preference which party should lead the next federal government? AND the most important poll (8% soar is unheard of)
In the last poll, what is the reasoning behind the sorting, just by visuals, AfD should be #3 no? Sarah Palin was a "game changer"
It's always sorted after the last election results in 2013 = the current Bundestag. FDP and AfD didnt make it because of the 5 % treshold but FDP had 4.8 and AfD got 4.7. They are mentioned with an own bar though cause they poll so high that they will make the next Bundestag with a certain likelyhood contrary to those included in "others". FDP and AfD are also not included in major political talk shows and debates cause they are currently not elected to Bundestag.
Of course it does. It shrinks the number of possible coalitions. If CDU stays about the same around 35% there is somewhat of a blocking minority around 12-15% that makes other coalitions impossible that otherwise would be thereotically possible like CDU -Greens or SPD-Linke-Greens. For a coalition you need to have around 48% of votes and over 50% of seats with overhang seats. Strong AfD basically rules out any 2 party coalition aside from the grand coalition. And they dont have to be in a coalition. They dont even want that. They want to be in parliament, make coalitions more difficult, as there will be 3 parties needed instead of just 2, they want to propose populist policies who the others will reject and pay electorally for or right away adopt from AfD. This is just blueprint the same as in Austria 25 years ago with the FPÖ. And they are now polling highest.
What is the historical background of potential CDU/SPD coalitions? Over here, Rooms-Rood is the most common post-war coalition.
This is the third version of it. First was 66-69, 2nd was 05-09. And people hate it. Große Koalition are considered lost years cause nothing gets done. It is the coalition of last resort if anything else isnt doable. And it strenghtens the fridges. In the 60ies NPD made various parliaments and of course there was the APO during the hight of the 68 movement. That is because opposition almost doesnt take place anymore. Current Bundestag sessions look like this 30 mins. CDU: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 10 mins. Greens: You cant do this! 30 mins. SPD: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 10 mins Linke: We will vote against it! 30 mins. CDU: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. SPD: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. CDU: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. SPD: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. CDU: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. SPD: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. CDU: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... 30 mins. SPD: This is a great law because.... We are the best because... Lets marry each other!
I lold @ "Altmaier gegen eine Wanne rohem Mett". Anyhow, as someone whose politics would vote Linke were it not for the lunatic fringe, or SPD were it not for the Schröder-and-on consensus, I'm pleased (though skeptical) to see Schulz. The idea of Gabriel as the only alternative to Merkel was too much to bear. I think we need someone like Schulz if there is any hope of discouraging people like Le Pen. Another Merkel win and France votes FN out of protest. Then we have lots of trouble.
Yeah but France votes first this year dont they? And Im not sure Angie will do another 4 years if she wins. Perhaps 2 then step down cause she has seen what happened to Kohl didnt she
Maybe we can do some Dutch Election talk here. The electable left is also going anti immigration, yer they will probably still lose the election (but still get in a coalition to govern). http://www.economist.com/news/europ...ch-politics-nationalist-direction-netherlands
The left isn't going anti-migration. Labour, the greens and left-wing libertarians are all pro-migrants. The socialists are skeptical on migration but they are not electable. Labour will suffer this election for allowing the VVD to gut worker rights and increase inequality. The VVD are liberal as in conservative libertarians, they are right wing. The PVV might win the elections but have almost no chance to form a coalition to rule. That party is a one man protest platform. It's near impossible to predict the make up of the next government coalition at this time.