Five Season vs. One Season Coefficients Predicting Champions League and Europa League Group Stages

Discussion in 'UEFA and Europe' started by EvanJ, Dec 11, 2015.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For the 20 groups in 2015-2016 (8 in the Champions League and 12 in the Europa League), I gathered each club's points, club coefficient for five seasons like UEFA does, and club coefficient just for the previous season, 2014-2015. I calculated the sum for each group and what percent of the sum belonged to each club. I calculated the correlation between percent of points and five season coefficient and compared it to the correlation between percent of points and one season coefficient. Here are the results by group, with 1SC meaning one season coefficient and 5SC meaning five season coefficient, and the higher value was the better predictor of Group Stage performance:

    Champions League A: 1SC = .8617, 5SC = .8363
    Champions League B: 1SC = .4478, 5SC = -.3377
    Champions League C: 1SC = .9200, 5SC = .9359
    Champions League D: 1SC = .1953, 5SC = .7688
    Champions League E: 1SC = .9363, 5SC = .9426
    Champions League F: 1SC = .9258, 5SC = .9383
    Champions League G: 1SC = .9113, 5SC = .8633
    Champions League H: 1SC = .7990, 5SC = -.0739
    Europa League A: 1SC = -.5290, 5SC = -.5371
    Europa League B: 1SC = .6188, 5SC = -.0375
    Europa League C: 1SC = .5335, 5SC = .3586
    Europa League D: 1SC = .5839, 5SC = .8381
    Europa League E: 1SC = .4098, 5SC = .2226
    Europa League F: 1SC = .6225, 5SC = .9494
    Europa League G: 1SC = .0026, 5SC = .6018
    Europa League H: 1SC = .5405, 5SC = .6933
    Europa League I: 1SC = .8276, 5SC = .9889
    Europa League J: 1SC = .0001, 5SC = .9764
    Europa League K: 1SC = .7764, 5SC = .7075
    Europa League L: 1SC = .8451, 5SC = .1182

    The one season coefficients had an average correlation of .5615 and the five season coefficients had an average correlation of .5377, so the one season coefficients did a slightly better job at predicting Group Stage performance. Each method was better than the other method for half of the Champions League groups and half of the Europa League groups.
     
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  2. shizzle787

    shizzle787 Member

    Apr 27, 2015
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Juventus FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It could be argued that the UEFA Coefficient should be a 4-year weighted (40%, 30%, 20%, 10%) cycle, but I do prefer the five-year unweighted model.
     

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