We mostly agree about the team and Sigi so this is a discussion around the edges. Hitting posts and crossbars aren't excuses but they are good signs. The best predictor of goals scored in the future surprisingly isn't goals scored previously but shots taken, shots on goal, and expected goals. I believe most of those metrics have improved under Sigi - especially if you adjust for SOS. All done without our best offensive player available and healthy. We keep creating those shots they will start to go in at some point. But yes I agee that we still suck and have low energy problems. Sigi is going to have to replace a lot of players before that changes. We need two new outside backs, a defensive mid with bite, another winger, two forwards and a better goalie. Otherwise, we are set!
So, basically, to sum up what's left of this season -- even if Sigi puts out the dumpster fire, we are left with a smoldering dumpster full of burnt trash....
Good signs, sure, but not any better than a shot that goes just wide. If the argument is that we've improved in our offensive chances as a whole and even though our goal-scoring does indicate that, there may be an argument to be made there but before parsing through the data and going on pure gut feeling, I'm not sure it's something I'd agree with. I'm well aware of predictive capabilities of shots/SOG/xG as it's a drum I was banging hard when we were squeaking results on the road at the end of Bruce's tenure and said it wouldn't last. So I grabbed AmericanSoccerAnaylsis's xG per game data and came up with this: HxGF = Home Expected Goals For, etc Raw = raw expected goals Rank = rank vs the rest of MLS during their time at the helm xGDF_H,ave = average xGD faced while playing at home (essentially the higher this is, the harder schedule you had) xGDF_A,ave = average xGD faced while playing away (essentially the higher this is, the harder schedule you had) Sigi has a fairly small sample size, so take that with a grain of salt. In any case, it appears we've improved our expected offensive production a bit at home but not improved vs the rest of the league in that time and we've more or less stood still vs our expected goals against, but have improved two spots to 17th vs the rest of the league. Sigi has dropped us off a cliff away from home, however. Sigi's certainly had a much tougher schedule than Curt, though. So it's kind of tough to compare the two when Sigi's had a much tougher schedule but his xGs away from home have also been considerably worse. Personally, I interpret the numbers are pretty similar when you take schedule into account, with perhaps a slight improvement at home though the sample size is too small to make any real conclusions either than that we're not a good MLS team. It's interesting to note, though, that Curt's crazy away form was pretty much unsustainable by the number which put us mid-table and our home form, though still deplorable, shouldn't have been as bad as only one win.
Yes ^^^. Good job with gathering the data. As you note, too small sample size, different schedule and different personnel available makes it a lot of guesswork at this point.
The team must have been held together by JVD because they have come apart under Sigi. How is it possible they play worse than with Onalfo?
I think you hit it. Van Damme was a natural leader, and he anchored the team defensively. This Galaxy side is now a Roman arch that has lost its keystone..... really, it has to be rebuilt from the ground up.
Yep. When you have a poor defense to the begin with, and then you lose your best defender who is also the leader of the defense.... and the team....
Despite whatever other house cleaning AEG does, I would bet Sigi would not have taken the job if he had not been assured he would be the guy to lead the rebuild. And why else would Dom get on board this obviously sinking ship? I think they are both secure - for one more year.
Name another leader on the team. Jones? His play has shown a bit more then a lot of other players.Gio? He is not a leader. Zardes? Maybe leads by example but I do not think he has it either. Who went out to face ACB after Toronto? Roman who still doesnt even speak english well.
Sigi hasn't covered himself in glory, but there was some improved play for a few games. Losing JVD, Van Anholt, Steres, even Diallo hasn't helped an already thin defense. And the new CB Cianni really hasn't been an upgrade so far. Also, remember, under Curt, and when Sigi first took over, there was possibility that the team could still pull it together and make the playoffs. Even a little hope is a powerful thing. Now, everyone one of them knows, not only is the season shot, but that there's a good chance that a lot of them are getting fired at the end of the year. It's easy for us to talk about "showing you are a professional" and "play with some pride", but playing for a doomed team knowing there will probably be big changes might scare people into playing hard some, but overall that's a toxic environment. Most people do better with some hope that things will get better - not going through the motions hoping it doesn't get worse.
I think that's a good point. A lot of this comes down to leadership (or lack of it). The guy who started the season as captain ended up leaving halfway thru and was suspended 3 times with red cards. Jones, the other would-be leader (who was brand-new to the team) has also been suspended and suffered long-term injuries. The will of the team seems broken.
The team starts well, is positioned well, and looks "dangerous." Sigi gets some credit for that. Then, we give up a goal...
Sigi can't fix a backline that includes Garcia and Ciani and their swiss cheese defending. And yes, I've given up on Ciani already. Red flags everywhere. Despite having size/height/power and years of experience as a cb on good teams no team wanted him when we picked him up. He came with a rep of being mistake prone and he's already had a couple major gaffes for us. Even if those could be attributed to new league/team etc. the one thing he can't fix is his lack of both quickness and speed. Remember how quick JVD closed down on balls/players that got loose in the box? AJ was similar. Both were great at anticipating and cleaning up mistakes of others. Ciani just looks slow and old (even though he shouldn't at 33).
One of the truly galling things about this season is how crap we are in an utterly crap division. First place in the West is good enough for 5th in the East. Finishing last on the island of misfit toys is …
The spine of this team was weak and unpredictable to start the season. no shape, leadership or strong tactical game plan. Clearly not the squad to nurture your youth movement. As much as i hate to admit it. The management gave up on the game plan and should have given Curt his run out. The changes they made have only made this season worse and maybe set back the younger players that needed more time and experience. Zardes has never been the game changer. He needs a Robbie Keane to stretch the defense and create for him. We dont have that player at the moment. Playing him at RB is retarded. They should have really brought in new breath new vision with a new coaching staff. No disrespect to Zigi or Dom, but the safe bet isnt always the best bet. GALAXY NEEDS FRESH AIR. Pathetic effort for this staff by the players as well.
WTH? Trailing Kansas 2-1 with 15 minutes left to play, the game was still definitely within reach, but this genius decided it was over and put in Lassister AND McBean. Why? WTF? Why are those two players still here? Jamieson, Lassister and McBean don't belong in MLS. They're not at that level and will never be, if this is all they've got. No other MLS team would sign them, I am willing to bet. If Sigi thinks Jamison, Lassister and McBean are players we can depend on next year or years after that, then I don't want to waste my time watching the team. My time is more valuable than that. I hate to say this, but maybe you're not any better than the dude you've replaced after all, Sigi.
Just curious - what other players should Sigi put in? That's what he has on the bench. The other option was to not make any subs. But even if we had won that game, we weren't going to make the playoffs, so I want Sigi to play all the guys on the roster - so he has a chance to evaluate everyone and decide who is staying and who is going. He's got 4 games left to evaluate all our players and come up with a plan for next season - so I would be doing the exact same thing if I was Sigi.
Gio, JDS, Zardes are national team players. what makes them National team players? The game changers around them maybe. The young players need the same thing. To ask them to rescue our season is asking too much if the others cant. Just saying
Btw.. A consistant gk. a consistent cb. a holding mid who kept the shape and a true number nine would make this team a contender.
Of course and he should. Not faulting Sigi. Just trying to give a different perspective on the season. If we are expecting G2 players to be game changers. we have already lost the plot. I
I wish. We also need at least one fullback capable of generating offense. Cole gets forward but squanders all of his final third opportunities, van Anholt is a stay at home defender with 2 goals in 8 years of play. We also need some speed and quickness across the backline - right now all of our defenders are slow. We also need depth at every position. Start with a backup number 9 who is a real scoring threat, then fast young midfielders who have technical skill and are itching to get on the field. PS - We also need better than a "consistent" gk, "consistent" cb, .... we need to get back to excellent. We used to have players that our opponents dreamed of having. We need to get back to that standard.