Ah, ah, I like this vocalization! We made you work hard, didn't we? Well, what's the problem? Without the help of another homer referee, this Australia can very well lose by 0-3 to Chile. So, we'd "just" need to blow out Norway to make it happen...
My mate was snubbed by Marta in the mixed zone in that game, he was very disappointed. It finished England 1 Brazil 0 11k tickets sold for the game tonight in Nice.
And go Switzerland as well as the Netherlands seem to be in the driving seat thanks to their recent WC qualifiers.
I'm a new member: hello everyone! Technical question re: ranking points calculation - has the scaling factor that is used in the calculation changed from 200 to 400? I'm trying to replicate the points movement and it looks like after the Jun-22 ranking the factor was adjusted. Can anyone confirm?
Thanks I'm not an expert by any means but I've looked into the formulas in order to better understand (and be able to calculate) FIFA ranking. It's boring number crunching but it plays a big role in the upcoming seeding for the World Cup. From my guess, the points calculated by SiberianThunderT use a constant scaling factor of ~400. However, previously FIFA have used 200. If it's still 200, Netherlands will get fewer points (excluding the final game vs SWI 1994 instead of the 2004 as per above posting) and will therefore most probably not surpass Australia (and or Japan), unless they get a big win in SWI. I'd like to share the info with the Dutch coach - Sarina Wiegman - to make them aware it's not just about the aggregate score but also seeding is on the line, but not before I know if my formulas are correct. Dutch FA is typically fairly clueless about ranking ...
It's actually always been 400, never been 200. The way the official documents are stated, the "scaling factor" is 200, but there's also a divide-by-2 included in the documents as well - at effectively the same step. FWIW, those of us in this thread who regularly calculate the "live rankings" have always used 400, and it's usually been spot-on except for rounding (or if the person intentionally does inexact calculation, like I usually do to save time). i.e. there was no change from before June to after June. If you feel like digging, you can check back in a bunch of previous posts in this thread (and occasionally elsewhere) to see my older calculations and how they eventually roughly line up with what gets published.
Yes, I am a Japan's fan, but I am afraid there no way we can avoid Netherlands getting the 6th and last seeded-spot.
The last spot is going to come down to the Switzerland/Netherlands game. A win for the Netherlands and it's theirs. A draw or a Switzerland win and it goes to Australia.
Probably true, since Australia just won by 5-0 their second friendly match vs Chile. If they had lost it, as they had done earlier last week by 2-3, it could have been a different story.
I'm a little worried that the Dutch will nurse their lead today and play conservatively, which isn't their style. I hope that's not the case!
They can hit Switzerland on the break with Van De Sanden and Martens and when you are 3-0 up, it makes sense to wait for your opponent. Unless you know you can definitely win by attacking of course.
It would indeed make sense to hit them on the break. However, most Dutch players don’t have it in their system to defend in a compact way. They will leave gaps in between (and behind) the lines, leading to panicky situations, chances, and as against Norway away, goals ... The MNT is adjusting their style of play and learning to play on the break. The WNT is a bit behind the curve and is playing “old school” Dutch soccer. Fingers crossed (from a Dutch perspective) ...
And to prove my point the ladies got a red card after 8 minutes - that’s Holland for you, defending a comfortable lead ... On my way to an event now, can’t watch the remainder of the game.
The game is now 1-1 at 70', Switzerland having just scored an equalizer to earlier Netherlands' advantage. Can't really see the Swiss score 4 other goals in 20 minutes, despite being 11 vs 10.
11 v. 10? I didn't even notice. Did the Dutch lose a player--and for what? Red card? I did notice--when I started watching at 25' mark--that Dekker wasn't playing.
Alright, so AUS got almost the maximum blowout they could over CHI, while NED only drew SUI... I didn't try being super-exact in my previous calculations, but the margins here are now super-slim; as such, IDK whether NED or AUS has that coveted 6th rank at this point in time. It would come down to doing the calcs for every applicable game since the previous rankings, and rounding error could possibly come into play. I'm not gonna spend more than an hour to do that now. X'-D
Here's my calculation - focusing on AUS-JPN-NED: Australia - starting points: 2012 Oct-5: France-Australia 2-0 --> -8 points Oct-9: England-Australia 1-1 --> +6 points Nov-10: Australia-Chile 2-3 --> -12 points Nov-13: Australia-Chile 5-0 --> +1 points New points total: 1999 Japan - starting points: 1981 Nov-11: Japan-Norway 4-1 --> +7 points New points total: 1988 Netherlands - starting points: 1963 Oct-5: Netherlands-Denmark 2-0 --> + 7 points Oct-9: Denmark-Netherlands 1-2 --> +14 points Nov-9: Netherlands-Switzerland 3-0 --> +7 points Nov-13: Switzerland-Netherlands 1-1 --> -4 points New points total: 1987 The Swiss equalizer cost the Netherlands dearly, as a 0-1 win would have brought their new total to 2003 ... Congratulations to Australia! BTW you will probably get the Netherlands in your group as a reward PS - I took into account all matches involving AUS-JPN-NED opposition in this timeframe, however, don't take me to court on these calculations ...
The Australian media are saying it will be 6) Australia 1999 7) Netherlands 1987 8) Japan 1984 9) Sweden 1980 But they could be as wrong as anyone else.
The Australian media are correct! Thanks for sharing / alerting me. I put in the wrong weight for the Japan-Norway friendly (30 instead of 15). So it should be: Japan - starting points: 1981 Nov-11: Japan-Norway 4-1 --> +3 points New points total: 1984
By the way, the Dutch media are completely oblivious to the concept of ranking, the influence of individual games on it, and its importance to seeding - always have been, both for the men's and women's teams. I sent the Dutch coach (Wiegman) an email, but she never replied to (or even acknowledged) it.
England lost 0-2 to Sweden, will they loose their 3rd place ranking? Germany tied Spain 0-0. Doubt if German falls, but do you think it might Spain might move up from their #12 spot(in my opinion they really should be in the top 10)
My Top 10 calculation in the table below. For the CONCACAF tournament I only applied home advantage to US games. Not sure if this is the correct method ...