FIFA World Ranking

Discussion in 'Women's International' started by jonny63, Mar 17, 2006.

  1. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    #901 Cliveworshipper, Aug 27, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016

    Here's a graph I just remembered I saved from an analysis of ties in international play ( mens qualifiers and WC )as it relates to Elo projected win probability.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Nice! And yeah, even though those data come from international play, if that same relationship holds up in league play then a ~24% chance of a draw in any given match would jive with the idea you don't expect to see many games where the two teams have massively different Elo ratings - i.e. you don't usually get the tail ends of that graph in league play.
     
  3. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't get this. It doesn't say a 24% chance of a draw "in any given match." It says that with any given Elo win probability prediction -- which is dependent on the rating difference between the opponents -- there is a particular chance of a draw. It looks like when the Elo win probability is 50%, roughly 30% of the games are ties. But, it also looks like it could be that for all games, with their wide array of win probabilities, something in the vicinity of 24% of games are ties -- perhaps that is what you were driving at.

    What is most interesting, I believe, is that even at the wide ends of the curve, there is some likelihood of a draw. At the wide ends, the rating differences between opponents are very large. Thus, even with very large rating differences between opponents, there always is the possibility for an upset.

    One of the great shortcomings in discussions about the relationship between teams' rankings and their "last result" is the lack of discussion about the inevitability of upsets sooner or later, for any team. Elo theory incorporates the likelihood of upsets. But often, when a highly ranked team loses to a more poorly ranked team, the discussion does not incorporate that likelihood -- when indeed, the loss may not say anything about the strength of either team, it simply may be an upset (or, it may be a combo of an upset and saying something about the opposing teams' strengths).
     
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  4. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006
    I found the original article that graph was taken from written during the 2014 cup, in an article on the difficulty of World Cup teams repeating.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/defending-world-cup-champions-keep-flaming-out/

    It looks like you take the Elo win probability from the ranking difference and subtract half the draw probability from that chart to find the actual win probability including figuring draws.

    That squares with how the elo wiki says it's done in chess, and helps explain cpt's comment that the better of two closely matched teams can have a less that 50% chance of winning.

    At least I think it does....
     
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  5. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    What I was trying to get at was that, in league matches, you don't expect to see the tails of that graph. Therefore, in "any given" league match, the expected probability of a draw isn't seeing the sub-15% tails, making the 24% overall chance more likely. Basically, by saying "any given match", I was taking the average over (a section of) the domain.
     
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  6. Cliveworshipper

    Cliveworshipper Member+

    Dec 3, 2006

    Interesting, though, that at either extreme of the nwsl table, the teams have the fewest ties.

    Boston has fewer than 7% ties, and Washington is at 12.5%
     
  7. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    This year, yeah, though it hasn't always been the case. In 2013, every team had five or six draws out of 22 games, just bracketing 25%, save for BOS (7th/8) at only three and WNY (1st/8) with a whopping eight! In 2014, Seattle hit 25% even with six draws from 24 games. Mid-table then saw even more draws, while the tail end dipped down in draws with BOS (8th/9) with just two. Then in 2015, 1st and last had the least draws, same as we're seeing this year, but 2nd and 2nd-to-last had the most. Even this year, the team with the least number a draws - a perfect zero from - is right in the middle of the table!

    I think it's hard to point to individual team-seasons since you don't get many of those in league play - e.g. we're only seeing 10 this year in NWSL - so any one season may look for or against a trend much more than one might expect.
     
  8. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    new rankings were released yesterday. Sweden drops to #8, Denmark up to #15 & Iceland drops to #20. Sad that only three CONMEBOL teams are eligible for rankings. Even Ecuador has dropped out of the rankings due to inactivity since their World Cup appearance. Nine countries in total have dropped out of the FIFA rankings due to inactivity: Ecuador, Iran, Indonesia, Laos, Palestine, Kyrgyzstan, Gabon, Lebanon, Swaziland.

    http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/women/index.html

    http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-rank...-make-a-move-usa-end-2016-on-top-2861370.html
     
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  9. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Australia looks within reach for Japan: only 2 points ahead (1984 to 1982). :)

    If we have a good Algarve Cup, we could catch up at least with them!
     
  10. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    The are only 11pts between third and fifth, and only 7pts between sixth and eighth! That's essentially within noise. After the top two, things are *really* tight.
     
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  11. amerinorsk59

    amerinorsk59 Member

    Mar 9, 2007
    Chicago area
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    Norway
    I hope Norway makes a nice rise in the rankings in 2017! :thumbsup:
     
  12. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    I think it is good that there might be some movement inside the top 10, it shows the gap between teams is reducing quickly or slowly depending on people's point of view.
     
  13. Lechus7

    Lechus7 Member+

    Aug 31, 2011
    Wroclaw
    New ranking is up - 24th March
    1. Germany 2108
    2. USA 2105
    3. France 2072
    4. England 2022
    5. Canada 2017
    6. Japan 1977
    6. Sweden 1977
    8. Australia 1976
    9. Brazil 1961
    10. Korea DPR 1953
     
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  14. applepie71

    applepie71 Red Card

    Oct 17, 2016
    wow SBC cost the US dearly
     
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  15. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    how on earth is Japan ranked so high? They only managed 6th place at this year's Algarve Cup. They're previous game was a friendly last summer which they lost 0-3/ They had a two game series with the US which was one loss, one tie. Then before that was their disastrous Asia/Olympic qualifiers bit where they came in 4th out of 6th.

    I believe France should be #1. They got the right balance of athleticism & technique, and finally a coach that knows how to use it it; with not just an direct, attacking style, but excellent transition game that gets them back on defense, which was something completely lacking in their last coaches. Don't think they played at full throttle at the first 2 SBC game, a not to give away their game plan to the US, which of course they thoroughly thrashed in the next one.

    Germany most likely a little too high at #1. They got completely out played by the US at the SBC, but then that's the one team they've always seem to have trouble with. or at least give up, especially when Jones played it from the back even though she must of known she was going to get swamped with a lot of turnovers from the US strong pressure game had going on.

    And of course, winning the WC in 2015, will be the US own demise, as they've created a monster in the self indulgant Jill Ellis
     
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  16. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Wow, impressive that Japan and Sweden have the exact same ranking and Australia is just one single point behind! :eek:

    I guess so little difference are not frequent, in a system where you gather hundreds (or even thousands) or points.
     
  17. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Uh I think you need to look at results again. Their four results since the last ranking are their Algarve results, two two-goal wins and two one-goal losses. They still lost 5pts from the previous ranking, but that's a smaller loss than other nations nearby in the ranking.

    Their form in the past few months is probably #1, I agree, but remember that the ranking system inherently has a lag in it so as to prevent hot- and cold-bursts from affecting things.

    What? I understand they might not be the machine they traditionally are, (and there might be some homer-cynicism in there,) but Germany hasn't lost to anyone except the US since the WWC 3rd place game, and their draws since then are AUS, CAN, and FRA. I dunno about you, but that sounds like a #1 or #2 record to me.

    TOTALLY agree.
     
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  18. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    I will say, though, this here is really fun to see:
    As a note, back in December 2004 the top 5 were
    1. Germany 2181
    2. USA 2165
    3. Norway 2146
    4. Brazil 2053
    5. Sweden 2035
    Norway, notably, had been one of the top 2 teams in the first two editions of the rankings in 2003 before Germany bumped them to 3rd. Brazil is the only other team to ever enter the top 2, having done so twice in 2009, also with Germany in 3rd at that time. If France manages to climb into the top 2, especially if it's at the USA's expense, it'll be very big! (Side note: I think USA stands to lose fewer points in its upcoming friendlies against very strong competition than GER stands to lose in the group phase of the EURO, so with USA only 3pts behind GER right now, I think the only way GER stays top after the EURO is if they beat ENG or FRA en route to winning the title outright)
     
  19. shlj

    shlj Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    London
    Club:
    FC Nantes
    Nat'l Team:
    France
    Now I would be surprised, if we manage to get the 33 points on the USA for the reason you mentioned above and also the strength of our future opponents :

    Netherlands 12th, away friendly plus probably two more friendlies at home before the Euros.
    Switzerland 16th, Iceland 18th, Austria 24th at the Euros.

    I can't see us getting many points before and from the Euros unless we beat Germany on the way, or if we get a strong opponent in those pre Euros friendlies.
     
  20. toad455

    toad455 Member+

    Nov 28, 2005
    sorry, but this is just way too many teams dropping out of the rankings due to inactivity. FIFA needs to put something in place to prohibit federations from not holding any kind of tournaments besides World Cup qualifiers. Currently, only 115 teams are ranked. I think all federations should be required to host an annual tournament to prohibit long inactivity.

    Teams no longer ranked due to prolonged inactivity:
    Jordan, Haiti, Fiji, Tonga, New Caledonia, Cuba, Congo, Dominican Republic, Cook Islands, Solomon Islands, Samoa, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Dominica, Aruba

    Also sad is that 7 out of 10 CONMEBOL teams have been inactive since World Cup qualifying. CONCACAF only has 12 teams ranked & the OFC only 2(two)!!

    Several AFC teams should be moved back into the rankings due to the AFC Women's Cup qualifiers: Jordan, Iraq, Tajikistan, Palestine, Iran & Syria.
     
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  21. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    #921 hotjam2, Mar 25, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2017
    thanks, but Germany did loose to Canada at the Olympics to in group play & only managed a tie to Norway at home(last friendly before the SBC), even though the Norwegians were missing some of their best players. But I understand now, due to FIFA's wacky rules; despite loosing 3 points, Germany is at #1 due to the US loosing more points.
    I like & follow Germany, but think it be unwise for them to go into the Euros as #1. Coach Jones has some serious flaws in her starting lineup & doubt if she will win with it; As of late, she's being using Wolfsburg's entire back line(cept for Henning in for Fisher) and as the recent CL match shown, the Wolfies gave up two rather weak goals to Lyon. Jones keeps insisting on using Marozsan as a more defensive player at DM, instead of AM where she just might be the best player in the world at that spot. She's probably will keep Maro there as the previous top player at DM, Lena Goeesling, was last seen on crutches about a week ago. And then of all things,Jones keeps Mittag as the #1 striker, even though she'a got a whole one goal in Bundesliga play so far this season, while the 16 goals scorer, Islacker gets spare change as a sub on the NT

    France is the real #1 right now, Coach Echouafi used the previous German game(where his team played way more relaxed/no high pressure) as a smoke screen as not give away his battle plans on what he was going to unleash on the Americans the next day. If so, he need not of worried, if the scouts were anything like the American posters at this forum or at the EQ, it's all about the USWNT and what Ellis did wrong and nothing about what Echouafi did right! In this case(unless we don't study them)France will keep on winning..........
     
  22. Thomsen

    Thomsen Member+

    Aug 6, 2016
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    US back at top
     
  23. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    here's the new rankings
    http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/women/index.html

    lack of games is probably that made the switches. The US likes yo play a lot of them, especially at home. It's a cash cow for them/ Even against tomato can type opponents, it can bring about 30K attendance of mostly upper middle class, So they charge about $20-40 a head. They stand to make a cool $1 million a match if you include merchandise sales & tv contract
     
  24. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All true, except that the matches the US played in this quarter that likely made the difference were away wins against two quality teams.
     
  25. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    in their one & only game since last time, Germany beat the highly ranked/moving up, Canadians, but still lost it's #1 ranking.

    Looks like Sweden took a beating(loosing both to Canada & US), but you got to remember, there are two Swedish teams out there:
    one with Sofia Jakobsson & one without her! Guess the FIFA rankers didn't take that into account?
     

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