Any chance that Italy could be seeded you think? To make that happen some teams might have to fail to qualify. I also believe that we will really have to win all our next games, including friendlies. They use the october ranks I think. Anyway probably doesn't matter to be really honest, because the way FIFA does it is in terms of regions after that and not ranks all the way through the 4 pots.
To your disappointment, the FIFA ranking, is not separated in teams A, B, C or D. It's only one team per country, and its the same FIFA ranking table for all, with the same basic formula. And in it, by the formula it uses, next month Germany is going to lose about 50 points wich will leave them 2nd, behind Brazil. If it helps you in anything, think about what happened to us : 2 consecutive times Copa America champions, finalists last Confederation cup, and despite those facts, we still fell to 7th. While at the same time there were other teams whom hardly played much matches during this last year, not wining anything important, and they jumped to put themselves among the top 6 teams of the world. FIFA's ranking really sucks and has no direct relationship to the real levels of teams.
That happened because all their defeats at Copa America Centenario (3), are not counted any more for their last year's performance, which meant them increase their average points for this year. But their jump only meant them about 15 places. Which is a small jump if you compare it to Andorra's, whom with their sole win vs Hungary at Uefa WC qualifiers, meant them a 57 spot jump. Now Andorra is 129th (was 186th last month), which would put them close to mid table from Concacaf, Africa and Asia, and at 2nd place in Oceania, at only a few spots behind New Zeland.
Hopefully we will get an update soon, but chances of Italy being seeded were just 6,10%. Poland for example will almost certainly be seeded. http://www.football-rankings.info/2017/06/2018-world-cup-simulations-23-june-2017.html
lol Yeah, Poland has a good chance to be seeded. They might still blow it though. I know those statistics say they're almost a lock but presumably Poland's over-rated-ness is baked into those calculations. So its a bit of circular logic. For e.g. normally one might comfortably assume that the #6 team in the world would beat Denmark and Montenegro this Fall. I'm not so convinced that Poland will win those games though.
Italy hasn't made out of the group stage in 2 consecutive WCs. They shouldn't be seeded out of principle
Well, it does matter. Being seeded doesn't guarantee that you avoid a top team in the group stage (e.g. you could be seeded and still get Spain), and being non-seeded doesn't guarantee that you will get a top team in the group stage (you could get Poland). But being seeded sure helps your chances.
I was trolling. Im probably the guy who thinks the least of this useless ranking. But yeah, that was because Euro is not a joke tournament like the world cup. Completely dominating France in their own home Euro was quite amusing still.
The Euros caught us in a bit of a transition phase. Players like Sanè, Werner, Weigl, Goretzka, and Brandt had yet to break through on the senior NT, while others like Höwedes, Schweinsteiger, and Can weren't good enough or were getting long in the tooth. To top it off were injuries to Ilklay and Reus, and the rushed integration of Hector and Kimmich.
Poland's chances on the website are actually based off of ELO ratings which are less fickle to the luck of the draw. So I say they are almost a lock.
Poland may be the 'Switzerland" of this cycle. In 2014 France ended up looking more like the seeded team than they did.
Switzerland is bound to drop, not by much though. Chile & Colombia have to win the games they're expected to win in qualifiers to keep the seed, though.
An example of the interesting quirks in FIFA rankings. Germany and Chile played a 1-1 draw in the group stages, and Australia and Chile also had a 1-1 draw. Germany got more FIFA points for their 1-1 draw with Chile than Australia did. The reason for that is that Germany is a member of UEFA, and Australia is a member of AFC. A strange system that rewards one team more than another for exactly the same result.
Oh, that's deliberate: instead of using the strength-of-confederation factor on the opponent, FIFA applies it to the team in question, meaning that those of us outside of UEFA and CONMEBOL will always get fewer points than the privileged ones for the same results.
wins by pk's count as a win by pk's. They give the double of points as of a normal draw. A win in regulation time, gives the triple of points of those of a draw. And a defeat on pk's gives the same amount of points as a draw.
For Switzerland, all it needs to happen, is to lose in their visit to Portugal by one goal, and from there it gets up hill for them, to qualify to the WC and to get seeded. Their current position in the ranking, will not help them much at the european playoffs.
Titleholders of the World Cup will last at least another year however. Did you mean to say it is all "downhill" from there? In English, going uphill (e.g. an "uphill battle") means it gets harder, not easier.
Depends on which statistics you are talking about, because for some cases a win by pk's, counts the same as for any win. For example in tournament stats, those who won on pk's, are considered to be at the same level of those who won on regulation time.
'Going downhill' doesn't mean things are getting 'harder' in English. The correct meaning of the phrase is that things are getting 'worse'
Title holder, yes. top spot of FIFA's ranking, not necessary. They are 2 completely diferent things. And btw, there is also a world champion title holder, that has no relationship to neither the World Cup, nor to the FIFA ranking, which is the Unofficial World Champion, whom currently holds it , is Bolivia, a title they took from Argentina by defeating them when they were the title holders (whom took it from us, by beating us last time we faced them). http://www.ufwc.co.uk/2017/06/bolivia-double-win-over-nicaragua-retains-ufwc-title/ I said uphill, as for the Uefa playoffs, they will not get to face easy teams such as Andorra, Letonia or Faroe Islands (dead rubbers currently in their WC qualifier group) to reach the WC, but teams that will sure be at their same level or even higher than theirs, in a 2 match playoff, where winner takes all, and loser can start dreaming on the 2022 WC, as 2018 will be already past history for them.