I agree. But they won't. Same reason why college basketball admits to the flaws of RPI but continues to use it. It's FIFA's system. I don't see them using anything else for a long long time. So the hope is maybe they fix the flaws in their system. I think that's more likely.
Any system is a symplification of reality. So any system leaves out certain elements, if not most elements. A team's ranking can be influenced by referee mistakes, match fixing, bad wheather/pitch condition, players injuries, length of top players careers, wrong coaches for the job etc. These are just a few of the things we miss in the calculations, but are in the whole very present in influencing the ranking and you can add to the list without much effort. But in the end all of it comes together in the match result. It's just what flavour of the results mixing in the ranking systems tasts the best to you.
But that (long memory) still doesn't explain why Nigeria would rank poorly even by ELO. I haven't bothered to look at it carefully, but none of the answers have seemed all that persuasive to me. Of course, the answer must be in the results that Nigeria has had in its games, but I am wondering which results have been so bad to put Nigeria at #41 by ELO? Long memory, after all, shouldn't be all that hurtful to Nigeria, who have been to many World Cups and made the R16 last time. Never mind I wasn't all that impressed with Nigeria in 2014, but their results weren't bad considering that in 2014, they still ranked below teams like Iran (which they drew) and Bosnia (which they beat, albeit controversially) and consequently would have seen Nigeria rise in their ranking base/points. And considering that they apparently qualified to this World Cup with good results.
Terrible draw for Iran. Portugal and Spain would be clear favorites while even the Pot 4 team (Morocco) is pretty good in terms of their talent.
Despite the screwy seedings, we have a balanced draw like was intended. I think the situation with Group B is debatable. Some have an obligation to step up, the others have every chance to do the same compared to other teams from their respective Pots. So it isn't hopeless for anyone.
Very early predictions. A: Uruguay, Egypt B: Spain, Morocco C: France, Peru D: Nigeria, Argentina E: Brazil, Serbia F: Germany, South Korea G: Belgium, England H: Colombia, Japan
France gets for the second straight tournament, a weak group. The only positive is that either Nigeria or Argentina should take them out in the round of 16.
Risky choices in B and C, normally I would expect the same as you for group A, but Russia is the host. Interesting choice for group F. Group H BTW is basically Group C of 2014, just Senegal replacing Cote d;Ivoire as Africa's most talent heavy team and Poland upgrading Greece.
With just about the best inaugural match you could hope for, Russia will progress now, I'll put money on it.
Right but I'm sure they weren't sitting around in 1992 thinking oh someone can sponsor this and we can make money. They did it because they needed an objective way of ranking teams for their tournaments.
Early Predictions Group A: Uruguay, Egypt Group B: Spain, Portugal Group C: France, Denmark Group D: Argentina, Nigeria Group E: Brazil, Serbia Group F: Germany, Mexico Group G: England, Belgium Group H: Senegal, Colombia
I disagree. I don't think a ranking is "needed". But its done because a) its kind of interesting/fun and b) it attracts a sponsor. As long as you have a ranking might as well make it good. Doesn't take that much effort. But it is pretty useless at the end of the day.
I expect Japan to be better than 2014 too. However, Colombia will be different too. 4 years ago James became the star and Falcao was injured. This time around I expect Falcao to steal the show and James to become the Robin to his Batman.
OK before you guys pop off. "Wisdom" of the masses says the following teams qualify: (If you were going to post this prediciton, I'm stopping you right here) Uruguay, Russia Spain, Portugal France, Denmark Argentina, Nigeria Brazil, Serbia Germany, Mexico England, Belgium Colombia. Poland
Wow, it's like science. We really are entangled at the quantum level... As I watched it I slowly realized that this was going to happen again...
Wow, the Iberian Reconquista gets played out in football... ...or the Moors could retake Hispania, yessss...
I explained this before. England explicitly bases their work permits on FIFA ranking. That should need restating. Perhaps other leagues don't look at FIFA rankings when deciding which players to pull from abroad but I can't imagine that it helps.
This is easy to say when you have a FIFA ranking that will never dip below 10 regardless of who you play, but teams in the middle are much more mindful of this and this can be a problem when you're simply looking for competitive games to fill out your yearly schedule. Nigeria went nearly the entire first half of the year without any matches period. No less than three friendlies fell through and I imagine that there were a number of nations who do care about their ranking who refused to take on a match because they're not in a position, like Argetina, where they can afford to take on a difficult yet lowly ranked opponent who is as likely to beat them as not. It would almost be easier if Nigeria were as bad as their ranking is. This should be exactly as you say it is, where a team can schedule matches based soley on internal factors, and even if Nigeria were doing exactly that, it doesn't help them at all if other teams aren't and thus turning down matches because of it unless they're played in favorable conditions. It's not surprising that the likes of Argentina was one of the few friendlies that we've even played all year despite having most of our calendar free. Maybe this has nothing to do with it, but I'm not one who thinks that CAF sides should gamble their future competitive opportunities on the likelihood that human beings are unflawed logical thinkers. And second, these aren't even real friendlies that I'm advocating against. These are basically matches in minor tournaments that feature players who likely will never see the field for any of the top CAF sides. And we're essentially risking the efficacy of our senior team's preparations, club opportunities, etc, for that. Before criticizing my opinion, explain to me how that makes sense. Because I don't think that CONMEBOL does this. And, once again, I'm not saying that we shouldn't play these tournaments and give our domestic league players opportunities to impress for the national team and build up the domestic game, I'm just saying that these shouldn't count as FIFA friendlies just for the sake of allowing them to be able to say that they have NT caps. Yes, that could in theory allow them to qualify for the EPL, but that becomes a catch-22 if their FIFA ranking is subsequently hit so hard that they then are ineligible for the EPL regardless of having a million caps because Nigeria is by then ranked at one million (in the theory that in the future secessionist movements replace the nationalist movements of the 18th and 19th centuries).