Argentina and England were examples. Any top Pot 1 and Pot 2 team will make a group of death. Also what about Sweden instead of Croatia? We could get a repeat of 2002: Argentina, England, Sweden, Nigeria.
Yes, Iran seems to be the only Asian contender. Just this week you had Japan drawing Haiti at home, Saudi Arabia losing 3:0 to Ghana at home or South Korea losing 3:1 to Morocco at home. Asia were poor in 2014 and it seems to have gone downhill from there. As for CAF its a mixed bag. In theory: Nigeria 2018 > Nigeria 2014 (much better players, strength in depth) Egypt 2018 = Ghana 2014 (possibly Africa's best tournament team) Cote d'Ivoire / Morocco 2018 < Cote d'Ivoire 2014 (no Drogba, no Toure - different generation) Senegal 2018 > Algeria 2014 (at least when you look at the team sheet, only African side with a Balon d'Or nominee) Tunisia 2018 = Cameroon 2014 I would say Nigeria, Egypt and Senegal are all great bets for dark horses from Africa. Senegal especially has the players. The value of the Senegalese side is on par with that of Poland. But will they form a team? So far they fail to dominate like the Drogba-era Cote d'Ivoire team did. So I would that cautiously optimistically Africa seems to be a tad stronger. Overall from non-UEFA and CONMEBOL sides I would say Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt and Senegal would be the likely suspects for the knockout phase.
Or your team is better, or South Korea, which in fact was the same opponent from your group as for the previous WC cycle, is weaker. Sorry, can't have them both, as it seems as if you are contradicting yourself.
The point is Argentina would kill for that group and in their minds know they would not be afraid of any of those teams and would have the mental edge against them. Sometimes I imagine you and others here are like people who go up to people who say "The sun rises in the east" and you would say to them "no the sun does not move technically". No one cares about the technicality. They just care about the main point.
Iran can be better and South Korea can be weaker. There is no contradiction. Of course, if the only basis for my judgment that Iran are better was how we fared against South Korea, you might have had a point. But Iran clinched its qualification to the World Cup without conceding a single goal in its group and without a single loss. Although Iran won pretty much the same group last time with South Korea finishing runner up then as well, the way we qualified this time wasn't remotely comparable to 2014. Nor were our overall results the past couple of years similar to our results then. South Korea, on the other hand, was just poorer, not just against Iran, but against everyone else they have played.
Still think Argentina would prefer any team from pot 4 other than Nigeria. Including Serbia. Nigeria usually loses but its always by max 1 goal and these are normally very close affairs (save for World Cup 2010).
If they draw the pots in the order of 1-4-3-2 then groups of death can be avoided. For example say Germany already drew Croatia from pot 3 or Serbia in 4, then none of England/Spain/Italy can be placed in their group. I wouldn't put it past FIFA to draw the pots in that order to spread out and balance the groups.
Not sure I understand. If they used another order, say 1-2-3-4, and the first two teams were Germany & Spain, then they couldn't get Croatia. So GOD avoided. OTOH, if the pot 1 team is Brasil then a GOD such as Brasil-Spain-Croatia-Nigeria can happen no matter what order the pots are drawn.
I'm sure nobody genuinely cares. Argentina will be happy with anyone in Pot 4. From the looks of it, they should all do well in increasing Messi's tally. Nobody is too concerned about Nigeria, or any of the African teams, for that matter. CAF will no longer be seeded favorably to avoid non-seeded Conmebol. They are now all in the bottom half pots, where they belong.
I respect Nigeria, but really, im tired of always playing with them... In any case, what every team is concerned about are the possibilities of pot 2.
Understandable. Though this time it will be 1/8 chance, rather than 1/5. Also, you are no longer forced to draw an African team at all.
Pedigree accounts for history, and historically Peru is equal to Chile. Only recently has Chile climbed up to match Peru, and quality wise, Peru is playing better football on average than Chile since this year.
True, just from a European perspective the chances of being drawn into a GOD drastically lower if they draw from pots 4/3 first, as say Germany would prefer Croatia + Peru/Colombia etc then Spain.
Well, they should be. And every site has Nigeria as the pot 4 component for any group of death. Why? Because they made the 1/8 final in 2014, cruised through the toughest qualifying group and have a better team then back then. And Senegal and Croatia (if they aren't in pot 2 by the end of the day - only one of Peru, Italy and Switzerland need to mess up) at least in terms of worth will be the most expensive pot 3 team. So on net value alone Senegal should worry people. You should really take a look at Africa's track record at the World Cup vs non-top seed CONMEBOL sides: 1982 - win vs Chile, draw vs Peru (wrongly dissallowed Milla goal) 1990 - win vs Colombia 1998 - draw vs Chile (wrongly dissallowed Omam Biyik goal), loss vs Paraguay (vs the reserves of Nigeria, who had already won the group), loss vs Colombia 2002 - draw vs Paraguay, draw vs Uruguay, 2010 - loss vs Uruguay, draw vs Uruguay (should have been a win) 2014 - loss vs Colombia So in a fair world it would be: 5 wins, 4 losses, 2 draws In the real world: 2 wins, 4 losses (where one barely counts), 5 draws BTW CAF teams avoid CONMEBOL teams every other World Cup, not always.
Still wondering how they fare... If you look at their team they don't have a single household name. The closest to being recognizable is Farfan. Honestly not so sure they will find it easy vs New Zealand.
majority of the team is born between 91-96 so maybe a few will now start making their name in the world (the likes of Edison Flores, Renato Tapia, Miguel Trauco, Andre Carrillo, Christian Cueva, and a few others) the major key is that the coach has got the team playing well together - unbeaten in their last 6 qualifying games and second best team after Brazil (points gained) in the second round of the qualifiers (9 games) This Peru struggles against teams like Colombia and Brazil who control possesion well and do better against the likes of Paraguay and even Uruguay who are not possesion teams NZ I think is not a possesion based team so it will be intetersting and ultimately in 180 minutes anything can happen..Peru has the pressure, a pressure they have not felt ever
I recognize the players, sure. But Flores plays in a struggling club in the Danish league, Tapia has hardly played for Feyenoord yet (but apparently he's on the up), Trauco is doing OK in Brazil. Cueva and Carillo are the closest thing they have to renowned players, but most people have never heard of them. Carillo will likely get better known given his EPL status. But both are 25-26 and none of them have had stellar careers so far. Obviously team play is more important, but it helps with mindsets when facing such an opponent. I'm also not sure, but isn't part of Peru's strength the benefit of home games at altitude?
Peru does not play at altitude Lima is at sea level and has zero home advantage for Peru...Does not rain, its not cold, its not hot, its not high.... Cueva is on the rise and its all thanks to Gareca who finally got his head screwed on right Edison Flores should hopefully move on soon, he has 5 world cup qualifier goals going to a WC suddenly makes your players more attractive to better leagues...they just have to get the job done in NZ (which wont be easy)
I know a bit about Peru's history, since Iran's first World Cup ever was in 1978 and we had Peru in our group. I still remember that game, watching it as a young kid well passed my bed time late at night, full of hopes that Iran might still qualify to the next round after having drawn Scotland 1:1. What I remember most about that game was one Peruvian player by the name Cubillas. While Iran, needing a big win, was the side on the attack, Cubillas simply tormented Iran's defense on the counter. He shredded our defense and helped Peru secure a 4:1 win against Iran. So, yes, I know about Peru's history. But the pedigree I was alluding to is a bit of more recent vintage, given that Chile is after all the reigning S. American champs and one of S.America's best sides in recent World Cups. Peru, on the other hand, has not been seen in the World Cup for a long time.
That's a great memory, I was too young to understand football in 78 but in 82 I also have similar remembrances with Argentina against Brazil and a certain Zico shredding them to pieces. Diego Maradona leaving the pitch with tears and the kiss by Tarantini. Teofilo Cubillas was a special player indeed, the pride of Peruvian football and I'm sure he'll be there in Russia as fan and talisman. A rematch with Iran would be incredible.
Where did you get the value of Senegal team? I have looked at transfermarkt, but couldn't see it there...