FIFA Ranking - Oceania

NZ beats Fiji 0-2. One win and up 28 places in the FIFA rankings already.

http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/news/newsid=625959.html#new+zealands+journey

 

Anyway. I decided to make at least a quick prediction if we win the Indonesia game and include gaining the lost points in the same period in the last four years.

But if we are going to do the first Friendly game against Indonesia in 08/06/08

The points for a win would go out as this:

100(3x1x((200-132)/100)x((0.85+0.85)/2))=173.4 points gained.

100% to 50% Points dropped between April-June 2007=(-17+17+-87)x.5=-43.5 Points
50% to 30% Points dropped between April-June 2006=(-9+2+-183)x.2=-38 Points
30% to 20% Points dropped between April-June 2005=(-3+-3+-16)x.1=-22 Points
20% to 0% Points dropped between April-June 2004 = (0+-7+46) x.2 = -39 Points.

Total Dropped Points= - 142.5

Therefore if we win the friendly against Indonesia it will give us 173.4 Points subtract -142.5 Points that we lost in the previous four years giving us a total of 315.9 Points in the FIFA Rankings.

(of course if we don't play Indonesia by the July rankings, then we still gain 142.5 Points that we lost miserably in those same period in the last four years)

So without the Indonesia game, add 142.5 points on the 399 point that we have, we should have a total of 541.5 points. Giving us an approximate ranking around 58th place on the FIFA rankings.

But with an Indonesia game and winning it, then we add 315.9 points to the 399 points that we have, we should have a total of 714.9 points. giving us an approximate ranking around 34th place on the FIFA rankings.

In both cases, it depends on the other teams point changes as well and frankly I am not going to touch all that. However the 541.5 points is roughly 58th place and 714.9 points is roughly 34th place on the latest April 08 rankings.

Hopefully I am right about this. I hate it if I got this calculation wrong, but 58th place or 34th place come this July 2008 rankings does sound mighty good in my humble opinion. But it also expose how terrible we have been during those months in the last four years to drop points (which is also based on the other previous years points as well with the "dilution" factor inherent in those points).

So about 58th or 34th place does sound mighty good, don't you think?

So you think that we have a few NZ players lining up for work permits in the UK sooner than you think, eh?

 

Oh, that change of date mucks things up for a while.

We have to take a dip because then we only have done 4 games in the last 12 months in July 08 and the calculations allows a minimum of 5 games so the points are then averaged 1/5 less. Total wise it was a quick calculation and I didn't use the 5 minimum averaging. Friendlies are not worth even playing, it sort of counts against making any decent climb in the rankings unless we play someone that is in the top 50 and win.

But wins later in Sept with WCQ against Fiji and two against NCL should lift the rankings up again because of the match status which then multiplies by 2.5 or 3.

Technically, if it does not add past 399 points up for grabs in a friendly then it's not worth play it.

 

Well it appears it is. I usually track the games on the OFC site but they don't update it. However, I should have track it on the FIFA site and then there is another site that announces fixtures, postphonements and cancelations.

 

OFC the confederation where teams can go up and down 50 - 80 places . . . sorry but it is honestly hard to be too excited with the rankings until it gets closer to the World Cup Finals year.