You compared Reyna to Mexico's best player, spare me the faux incredulous reaction. Difference in talent simply isn't much, at worst, and non-existent at best. You disagree, fine. I think you and others like you are just looking back at our last hex, looking at the team of geriatrics that Bruce and egg have trotted out, and the awful form of the US team in general. Fine, that's all fair. But you switch coaches, I think the US wins 5 or more out of 10.
I don't think Lozano is Mexico's best player, though that's neither here nor there. My point is that the listing of players by league they play in can be very deceptive. I'm not looking at the team Bruce rolled out. That's ages ago. I'm just looking at the overall options for each team, and Mexico is solid basically everywhere, and with depth. We have better wingers, yes, and I'll take Adams over every defensive midfielder they've got. I'll take the US RBs. But anywhere else? Their CBs aren't great, but really, neither are ours. I really like McKennie, but Mexico has really taken it to him so far. I do think we are much closer if we are 100% healthy. We faced them twice without Adams, and I think he'd make a BIG difference. I get that you think everyone is significantly underperforming because of Berhalter. We'll just have to disagree on that.
there are some fair points in here particularly that Mexico’s depth is far better than ours as we’re relying on plebeian minor leaguers for depth and that there are positions where Mexico are better. however when hasn’t it been the case that they’ve had superior talent and yet we won the hex? nexf, the concept that we should exclude Pulisic, adams and Weston when comparing talent is crazy - they all have more talent right now than almost everyone on Mexico and I could make an argument that Christian and Tyler are the two best players for either Mexico or the USMNT. When have we ever had multiple positions where we have the better field player? Even in those time eras, Mexico had far better depth and had positions where they were much better than us on paper. for those who are focused on our coach, I’d switch it around: what would we expect if our coaches were swapped? How in the world should our expectation be to finish lower than Costa Rica. We shouldn’t lower the expectations we demand from our coach and federation because they’ve made bad decisions.
I expect us to struggle. Nepo B. will give General Egg a vote of confidence. Meanwhile, Nepo B. will contact Big Sam and ask him to save the US. Nepo B. understands that Thanksgiving and Christmas will be awkward going forward. But, ultimately Nepo B. finds a kindred spirit in BIg Sam due to possible corruption. Big Sam arrives and we avoid relegation. That is how this works right?
Pizarro is an attacking midfielder who can also play wingback so his better comparison is Weston or adams and I’ll take both of them over rodolpho. I’d take dest over him in the long run. since we’re playing this fun game, whom do you take over Pulisic and adams?
the question that Berhalter defenders continually fail to answer is who among our best players is playing near their ceiling? Our national identity was a team that played better than the sum of our part as well as being a furiously athletic and defending team. we’re now trying to move to an aesthetic
You do realize the whole tournament setup puts all teams not from Europe or S American at a distinct disadvantage. Monterrey had to play a game just days before to get the privilege to play Liverpool. There will be a new format and more teams from each region that can make these results more useful. What people saw that watched the game was players from Monterrey playing the best team in the world better than most. They certainly gave them a better game than say Aston Villa.
And then they tied a Saudi Arabian team in full time. Not sure why you’d use one game as a true datapoint when there’s a long history here. When I think of Mexico, I think of my friend comforting themselves that “even though we lost in r16, we sure looked good against team X! We’re right there!” I laugh and whisper dos a cero
My point is The players from Monterrey looked better than the players from Aston Villa against their common opponent,Liverpool. So maybe we should question the assumption that players from Aston Villa should be rated superior to those of Monterrey.
I think there is a miscommunication going on over the word "expectation." With this level of talent, I "expect" the USMNT to finish at or near the top of the hex. With the coach, I anticipate that qualifying will be a slog, perhaps a struggle. Just because I say that I expect that we'll barely qualify doesn't mean that's my standard. It means that's what I anticipate. I'm sure that is true of others in the thread that expect that we'll have a hard time qualifying. It doesn't mean that we are lowering the bar.
because of one game...if it makes you feel better 538 ranks Monterrey and Aston villa near each other.
And then they tied a Saudi Arabian team in full time. Not sure why you’d use one game as a true datapoint when there’s a long history here. When I think of Mexico, I think of my friend comforting themselves that “even though we lost in r16, we sure looked good against team X! We’re right there!” I laugh and whisper dos a cero
Expectations should be no worse than second where we have the attitude to compete with Mexico. But we have come a long way off from that, and its pathetic.
We wouldn't get to 2002 WC if Reyna and McBride (who both were in horrible form) didn't force Arena to play Mathis and Wolff.
Steffen, Morales, Sargent aren't on legitimate teams and aren't better than MLS players in corresponding positions. Among the rest, 2 is the average number of injured players on any single day.
Well Monterrey only had one game with a common opponent of Aston Villa, so yes it’s only one data point. This is not about how I feel, I’m just putting out an argument to challenge how you set up comparisons of the rosters. It’s not a personal attack on you either and I hope you don’t take it that way. These are just thoughts to be considered. Comparing these rosters is very complicated; for any way we tried, I’m sure someone could find a good argument to shows flaws in the method. For instance, even if we agreed that Monterrey was as strong as Villa, I doubt that Monterrey roster that gave Liverpool a good game is still intact. Players come and go on rosters and team’s strength ebb and flow.
I was advocating for Allardyce during the hiring wait. I was laughed out of the building. I also supported Roberto Martinez and was met with more than one "not good enough!" Ya, we'd be f*ckin' lucky to land Allardyce. But, there are a ton of other managers who would be a step up from Jay's Brother. I feel bad picking on the guy. Ordinarily I wouldn't. But, it's clear that the deal was struck 9 months before the announcement was made. So, he was complicit in his coming in with very little time to get things organized for this qualifying run. And, the blatant favoritism of MLS players stinks. So, ya, Allardyce would have been a hell of a lot better than Jay's Brother then, and he would be now.
What if we did a draft including all concacaf players: how would the USMNT stack up? I'm guessing that the usmnt would be well represented at the top of the draft and not well represented in the 20-50s slots.
Except you provided no basis for that. The only argument that has been given that is reasonable is that is for fast rising players who are ultimately sold. Somebody else showed that this phenomenon hurts the valuations of Championship players more than MLS players.
Here are the TM valuations (imperfect as they are!) for the two teams together. Pulisic €60m Jiminez €42m Chucky €40m Tecatito €25m McKennie €22m Hererra €20m Brooks €15m Vela €15m Adams €13m Alvarez €13m Dest €12m Pizarro €10m Putting aside whether the numbers are perfectly accurate (hint: they're not at the individual level), the data doesn't show what I hoped it would. I'd note that TM is terrible about allocating names to national teams so I'd appreciate any names I missed. the USMNT has 5 out of the first 12 slots and I think that our list is on the upswing rather than downswing like Mexico's. I also continue to think that our guys have higher ceilings than theirs on this list but that's not shown here.....
I went ahead and extended your analysis using TransferMarkt for your CONCACAF draft idea. Using Transfermarkt this seriously is well...fun? It kinda does line up with what you thought; the USA hangs in there for the top 25, but it's a sea of Mexican flags for 25-55. Transfermarkt values 55 CONCACAF players above $4M. The graph below represents the cumulative share of value for each nation represented for those players ranked 1-55. I sorted the list by value and then secondarily by Age (youngest first). The USA hangs in until player #25 (Josh Sargent, $8.55M, USA #9), but the USA has no other entrants until Roldan and Altidore, who are both at the minimum $4.56M for the data set. In terms of number, Mexico counts 30 players to the USA's 11. That is indicative of Mexico's huge depth advantage. They can field three teams to our one at this level. When two or three key players are inevitably unavailable, we are pulling from a much weaker pool of depth. This matters a lot in a year long qualification setting.