I think transfer fee's will go down regardless because the number of clubs willing to spend exorbitant amounts of money is shrinking. Of course there will be clubs like Porto who insist their players are "fair market value" in order to keep prices up but that levy is breaking as we speak.
Well that's where you and I disagree, in my mind modern football is evil and there's A LOT wrong with it and that's mostly to do with the people in charge of the elite clubs. By the way I'm not talking about Germany here, there's nothing evil about the Bundesliga. For example the new rule in England where clubs in the near future have to have a majority of homegrown players in the squad. So what is the result of this rule? As homegrown is interpreted as five years at a youth academy, the elite clubs, as in the ones who can afford to, simply tap up ever younger players on continental Europe. Just fly in a bunch of 14 year olds and chances are one out of a hundred is good enough for the squad in five years time! Meanwhile clubs who can't afford to pay under 16s at the risk of them not amounting to anything suffer, also because the price of real English players will be getting even more absurd than they are now. The elite clubs can and will find a way round every single fair play rule no problem. Again the only organisation who can change this is the EU. If they start treating professional football like every other industry, and apply the standard fair competition laws, elite clubs in England and Spain would suffer immediately.
Perhaps the problem is that football is treated as a business in the modern days. It is no surprise it tends to be an oligopoly, which you also see in other globalised economic branches.
In Dutch newspapers there had been articles over the past days which, in essence, says that the 'big clubs' wants to abolish the Europa League in its entirety. Instead of the Europa League they want to expand the Champions League to 64 teams. Why? Because those mega-powers are afraid they will not survive the CL group stage in the current set-up (see both Manchester clubs).
Yeah, that would be a beginning to solve the disbalances in modern football but I'm afraid they want to maintain their priviliged position. From their point of view it is indeed preferable to expand the Champions League even more, with more weaker teams (plus more teams from the big countries), in order to safeguard a progression to later stages. They also did this trick in the past (the trick is to take away places from medium-powers like Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands; which they did).
this again, lol. i just wish there was a way you could bet against this every time someone predicts it, you could make a fortune.