EURO 2020 Power Rankings

Now that the qualifying phase has concluded it's time to throw a look at the qualified teams and rank them in a Power Ranking.
This ranking is a result of different parameters such as squad strenghts, post World Cup 2018 results and performances.
Too make things clear I have watched several nations across the last months and this is how I perceive the teams right now. The letters behind indicate in which category I put the team in order to have a measure for better understanding of the strenght.

1) France.......................A+
2) Belguim.....................A+

3) Italy............................A
4) Netherlands..............A

5) Portugal....................A-
6) England.....................A-
7) Germany...................A-

8) Ukraine......................B+
9) Croatia......................B+
10) Spain.......................B+

11) Switzerland.............B
12) Denmark.................B
13) Sweden...................B
14) Austria.....................B
15) Turkey......................B

16) Poland......................B-
17) Russia......................B-

18) Wales.......................C+
19) Czech Rep...............C+

20) Finnland...................C

What is looking your Power Rankings like, folks? Let's have an healthy discussion. If you don't agree with some of my placements I will give short reasoning for why I put where I put it.

 

Regarding Spain I have watched their away games in Norway and Sweden in October. I wasn't impressed at all with what I saw. It's still that posession based game "Tiki Taka" they call it I think but they are missing a lot of firepower and directness upfront. There is no spark no tempo whatsoever. Spain is very boring to watch and easily gets stiffled against half-decent teams.
I thought actually under Lopetegui Spain was on its way back to the top. After sacking him they had a disappointing World Cup and they bottled it in the Nations League after two wins in the first two games. Now look at qualfying. OK, they topped their group comfortably. But the games with Sweden, Norway and Romania were all very close and it took them often penalties to score against those mediocre sides. I don't count the last Matchday at home vs. Romania because that was basically a friendly as it wasn't anything to play for anymore neither for Spain nor Romania. It doesn't surprise me that Spain won that game 5-0. Spain generally does a lot better when pressure is off. They don't have anymore Xavi or Iniesta from their old good days who leaded their midfield, dictated the flow of the game, created chances. What they now possess in midfield is not bad don't get me wrong but it's far away from the class of the former mentioned two. They also lack a prolific goalscorer. Do you really count on Rodrigo to score the goals? Looking at their away performances they couldn't hold it tight at the back either. Only a clean sheet in Malta, conceded in Sweden, Norway, Romania and even Faroe Islands. You see this is a side with plenty of issues going to the EUROs. Spain in this shape is far away from being a favourite to lift the trophy. It was announced that Luiz Enrique would take back his post. Maybe he can do something for them but I feel it's a too short period of time to change things drastically for the better. They've got maybe only four friendlies to adjust things. I would be shocked if Spain goes beyond the quarterfinals next year. What works for them a bit is that they've got three home games in Bilbao in the group stage. In the knockout stage though they will struggle. No doubt.

 

Austria looked mostly good in this qualfying. They had a terrible start with two defeats in the first two games. But they responded very strongly. They remained unbeaten until the last matchday where they fielded a B-side and lost an irrelevant game to Latvia. To come back in this fashion after such a poor start isn't easy at all. I watched several of Austria's matches. In Poland they were the better side and were unlucky to not have it won. Also away in Slovenia which was basically the decider who would qualify between both sides they limited Slovenia to only two shots on target and displayed very solid football with good short passing. They have some good players in their team such as Alaba, Arnautović, Sabitzer, Lazaro or Hinteregger from Frankfurt. I feel there is also a good team spirit in the team. Where they are lacking is in the forward position. They use there Arnautović although he is more a winger than a striker. From what I saw they have a better tactical game than Poland. Poland is still a very one dimensional side and dependent on Lewandoeski showing up. Wales doesn't have such a decent squad as Austria I think. Under Giggs there don't look as strong as four years ago. Russia had a good qualfying campaign but their group was trash apart from Belguim and they got badly exposed by Belgium at home. This made me putting Russia that low. The Czechs really don't have special players. I regard their home victory over England a bit as a fluke. Also Southgate fielded a strange line up there. For my money Austria has all the pieces together to be a surprise team next year. In my view they can reach the quarterfinals if they don't get a terrible draw.

 

So how does my ranking mirror my expactations how the teams will perform next year? What do I regard as limit for a certain side?

It might sound a bit extreme but I think only the sides that I ranked A+ and A have a shot at the title next year. I regard it as highly unlikely that a side outside of France, Belguim, Italy and Netherlands makes the Final. That's my honest opinion as someone who follows International Football closely and has experience in predicting such events. Of course we have to wait for the draw first on 30 November in order to make a better assessment but that's how I see the matter.

Sides that I ranked A- namely Portugal, England and Germany can make the semi-finals but even this will be hard to achieve for them. I think at the very least two teams of the A+ and A grading will make the semifinals, possibly three or less likely all four. So that might leave let's say one semi-final berth for 11 teams to battle it out. (A-/B+/B grading, the rest don't have a chance).
When you consider that EUROs tend to produce mostly at least one surprise semi-finalist so it will be very hard in my eyes for Portugal, England, Germany or Spain to reach the semi-finals next year. In 1996 we had the Czechs Republic, 2000 we had Portugal (who were back then somewhat of a surprise), 2004 we had Greece, 2008 we had Russia and Turkey, 2016 we had Wales. I don't know yet who exactly that surprise team could be in 2020 but it will be one of Ukraine or Croatia (B+) or a side of the B grading. (Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Austria or Turkey).
Russia and Poland (B-) can make the Round of 16 but everything beyond that will require something special in my eyes. The Czech Rep. and Wales (C+) are less likely to pass the group stage and at the same time I don't give them a chance at all to get the quarterfinals. Finnland (C) will be mostly there to gather first experiences in a major tournament. Every point would be a success for them. They can only have a shot at the Round of 16 if they have Wales or Czech Rep. or a playoff winner in their group that I rate lower than B-.

 

The sides which I gave a B grading should make it at least out of the group unless they get drawn in a difficult group. Probably two of them will make it to the quarterfinals. And if everything falls into place even a semi-final run for one of them seems not out of reach. Especially when you consider which less fancied sides made it to the last four in past EUROs.

 

I think they deserve to be that high. They secured promotion to League A in the Nations League but more importantly they topped their qualfying group with Portugal and Serbia and remained unbeaten in the process. And they also achieved these results by playing a refreshing football. I hope they can replicate that in the EUROs next year. If they can they are a very good dark horse pick indeed.

 

Who yould you give an A+ then? I know that Belguim might struggle against other A nations but I thought apart from France they deserved it the most to get an A+.

 

They went up early in the home game and defended after that. Perfectly reasonable game plan. I haven't watched the away game though in Portugal if you point on that.

 

Well these teams are interchangeable. It is totally understandable if you see it the other round. I can only say I liked more the look of Italy and Netherlands when I watched them.