This run of games has gone basically as expected. With 10 games left its hard to tell, the bottom is getting very tight 19th place Carpi plays 18th place Frosinone next week, and 20th place Verona the week after. Even though it would mean Frosinone likely leapfrogs Palermo and puts them in a relagation spot, its probably better Frosinone win it than Carpi, as it would make it less likely that Carpi move out of 19th place. Frosinone's (1 point behind palermo) next three opponents are the 19th, 4th, and 14th placed teams Palermo's are the 2nd, 11th, and 10th Udinese's (3 points above palermo) are 3rd, 7th, and 2nd Atalanta's (also just 3 points above) are 8th, 9th, and 6th After that, hopefully Palermo will have made up 3 points on Udinese, and ideally Atalanta as well. I could see them dropping 1-3 against Frosinone. That could leave Palermo in the dropzone depending on how the goal difference works out, with just 7 games remaining. But Palermo must beat either Chievo or Empoli. Without one of those wins, it could start to look dire for Palermo, particularly if the teams around them pick up some unexpected points. It also wouldn't be hard for Genoa (who plays Frosinone) or Sampdoria to be pulled in as well, they are both on 31 points, just 4 above Palermo right now. Neither has a particularly favorable next 3 games. Palermo have games against Verona, Frosinone, Atalanta and Sampdoria still on the schedule. All four of those will be head to head relegation battles. If they don't get a good amount of points from those it could spell trouble given that Napoli, Juventus, and Fiorentina are also on the list. In the end though, as long as Carpi and Verona keep dropping points, it should a battle for only one relegation spot, between 4-6 teams. I think Palermo has what it takes to survive
Here's the last 10 games analyzed for the 7 teams I think will play a part. Verona is as good as relegated (knock on wood). Palermo is smackdab in the middle in terms of average place of the last 10 opponents. Both teams below them right now have marginally easier schedules, though that will change next week since they play each other (19th and 18th place) while Palermo plays the 2nd best team. Basically I think only one of them will be able to take advantage of there easier schedule. Meanwhile, Carpi has a real advantage with only playing one top 5 team. Just one more reason to hope they are further set in 19th place after the next two weeks (a loss vs Frosinone and a draw vs Verona would be great.) Udinese with the toughest run-in, playing 4 of 5 of the top five teams. They have also been on a brutal streak lately, winning just 1 of their last 10, having played relatively easy competition in that time. Now facing harder opponents on average, they should drop any more points. Honestly, depending on what Frosinone do, I'd say Udinese may be the odds-on favorite to get relegated.
Wasn't really feeling up to doing a game thread today, but unsurprisingly, Palermo lost, 1-0 this time. However, Carpi also beat Frosinone, which means Palermo remains above the red line... Meanwhile, Genoa beat Torino today and, at 34 points is almost certainly safe. If teams continue on their current ppg, the red line would fall at 34 points almost exactly. Its unlikely that Genoa gets no points out of the last 9 games. Meanwhile, Verona on 19 points is basically guaranteed to be relegated. Averaging .7ppg, its unlikely they gain 9 points on teams ahead of them in the last 9 games. Sampdoria is, in all likelihood safe, but their difficult schedule leads me to include them for at least one more week. At 32 points though, its unlikely 4 teams pass them. If 35 points is enough for safety, Palermo will need just 8 points out of their last 9 games. With games against Frosinone and dead-last Verona still on the schedule, that is very doable. In fact, Palermo have, easily, the easiest schedule of the current relegation battlers. Frosinone's difficult schedule means they are likely gone, and I might actually still bet on Udinese rather than Carpi to be the third team down. But that puts Palermo in a precarious position.
Still too busy to be doing matchday threads for these games (or even watch them, for that matter) but not a particularly great result from Palermo today. 0-0 and a point against a midtable team isn't really the end of the world, but results elsewhere mean Palermo now finds themselves in the relegation zone, albeit only because of goal difference. Even more worryingly, Palermo have scored just once in their last five games.
ESPN FC article about Zamparini reportedly stepping down during the summer. I'll believe it when I see it, obvy.
Yeah its not looking great. I'm finally done with my big test, so I may be able to watch games again, but looking at the updates for yesterday's I may not want to. Next week is another loss, and Novellino is gone either this week or next. God only knows who will take over, probably Ballardini as laughable as that will be. Realistically, unless Udinese really slip up, there are three teams fighting for one spot: Carpi, Palermo, and Frosinone. Palermo has the easiest schedule of the three, but they haven't won a game since January 24th. They have only scored twice in their last seven games.
Looks like the prophecy has been fulfilled... BREAKING: Serie A club Palermo sack their EIGHTH manager of the season as Walter Novellino makes way for Davide Ballardini— calciomercato.it (@calciomercatoit) April 11, 2016
It sucks that safety is still possible. Because Zamparini doesn't deserve it. And because it makes these events all the more annoying
http://www.football-italia.net/82721/palermo-handed-stadium-ban as a result of poor fan behavior, palermo will have to play their next match behind closed doors.
Carpi with a big win today. Not good news for Palermo as they are now 3 points back of safety with a game against Juve tomorrow....
Due to fan problems in #Palermo - #Lazio match, tonight's match vs #Atalanta will be the first played behind closed doors in club history.— Enzooooo (@ViciniLo) April 20, 2016 Palermo need a win in this game. Carpi is very likely to lose against Milan, and we can hope Frosinone will drop points against Chievo. That would bring Palermo out of the drop zone again, and in a good place with games against Frosinone and Verona both left (along with a likely loss against Fiorentina and a toss up against Sampdoria)
,If you're looking for something more optimistic, local 'rivals' Trapani have won 7 games in a row and are now in 4th place in Serie B. They are coached by ex-palermo manager Sersi Cosmi. An amazing run, considering that 2010-11 was their first season in Lega Pro Secundo Division (4th tier) after 13 years in the non-professional Serie D or lower.
2-2 draw after a 75th minute equalizer from Palermo. First penalty for Palermo in the 1st minute. Struna with a red card. Sounds like quite the game. Point is good, but 3 points was really needed here Chieveo crushed Frosinone 5-1 which is good. Now just one point behind them, and (barring a miracle against Milan tomorrow) only two points behind Carpi. Game against Frosinone next week is crucial. Can't imagine there's any way to safety that doesn't involve winning that game.
Trust milan to blow it. 0-0 against Carpi. Palermo are still 4 points (or 3 points and a LOT of goals, as they tied both games against Carpi) from safety.
Because I'm not depressed enough already: Iachini earned 14 points in his 12 games as manager at the start of the season. In the 22 games since then the long string of managers (including an unfortunately timed return from Iachini) have only gotten Palermo a further 15 points. During Iachini's run, 12 goals. Since 18. Goals allowed 16 to 46. Thats an increase from 1.3 GAA to 2.1 GAA. Of the 4 teams Iachini beat, only Udinese also lost the return fixture. Iachini managed a draw against Bologna during his return. The other two were losses. Palermo's only wins since Iachini was fired? Udinese, who has only just gotten out of the relegation fight. Frosinone, who is still very much in the fight, and Hellas Verona, who is basically relegated already. Firing Iachini was a huge mistake. It was clear at the time. It will be even clearer if (sadly looking more and more like when) Palermo is relegated.
Huge 2-0 win today over Frosinone. First win in 14 matches. Not all good though as Gonzalez is suspended for the next match, and Vazquez had to come off with an injury. Lets hope its not serious.... Tied on points with Carpi, who play Empoli tomorrow. Remaining schedules Carpi (32 points): Empoli, @Juventus, Lazio, @Udinese Palermo (32 points): Sampdoria, @Fiorentina, Hellas Verona Frosinone (30 points): @milan, Sassuolo, @NAPOLI Carpi need to lose to Empoli tomorrow. The fact that they were able to grind out a point against Milan worries me. Frosinone should be done now, with three very tough games left. Palermo have the easiest game left of the group, against last place Verona. But I'm afraid they will need another result against either Sampdoria or Fiorentina to get ahead of Carpi. They could very easily beat Udinese, who has improved since changing managers, but not significantly. If that happens (and also if they get points against Empoli), it'll take more than one win to get ahead of them. Hopefully 4 points will do it, but it might take 6 or more.....
yeah thats not good. Could take as many as 7 for Palermo now. Almost certainly will take at least 5. I don't trust Udinese to beat Carpi. It's starting to look very dire.
Big 3 points today, although they're all big at this point. Milan was able to draw with Frosinone after trailing most of the game.
This was the first time #Palermo have won back-to-back matches since weeks 1 & 2 of the season (wins vs Genoa & Udinese).— Enzooooo (@ViciniLo) May 1, 2016 Still gonna take some luck to stay up. Palermo and Carpi are currently even on points, and Carpi holds the tiebreaker (in the unlikely scenario that Frosinone comes into play, Palermo has the tiebreaker over them). Remaining games Palermo: @Fiorentina, Hellas Verona Carpi: Lazio, @Udinese I can easily foresee Carpi getting all 3 from the Udinese game, which means Palermo need to get a point out of the Fiorentina game next week. If they do that, they will almost certainly be in control of their destiny (barring a calamity by Lazio). Hellas Verona is very beatable.
Carpi have had 2 penalties save, and trail 2-0 to Lazio at halftime Palermo were under siege most of the first half, but are still 0-0 with Fiorentina. Both results would be great if they held. Udinese is currently tied with Atalanta. If they lose, they could be at risk of being the team relegated. (they play Carpi on the last day)