End of Season Countdown

Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by goussoccer, Aug 5, 2019.

  1. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  2. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    Yeah, and I'd be worried about it except they have 1-2 games in hand on pretty much everyone else in the EC playoff hunt. So even if their PPG dips they have more chances to pick them up.
     
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  3. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Agreed, but it does mean you don't want very many (if any) zeroes and you know you are going to get some.
    The question I have is if you take the toughest two games off the Revs schedule then how would it appear? They have 2 games in hand vs. Montreal, DC and Chicago, but only 1 vs. Orlando. Which to me, makes a win against Orlando critical and a need to find another 6-7 points from the other games.
     
  4. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
    The only team to beat them since Arena came aboard is the best team in the league (by a wide margin). So, I'd say it's far from inevitable that they will get some 'zeroes'.

    I don't really expect them to run the table, but OTOH, other than LAFC as mentioned, they've been able to get points from everyone they've faced.
     
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  5. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
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  6. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    24 Takeaways for Week 27 - what marks success for each team?
    September 9, 2019, 6:23PM EDT
    Bobby Warshaw

    New England
    I think I must agree.
     
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  7. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Ok --- updated spreadsheet on our last games. We are on 39 points and history tells us we need to be in the 44-47 point range to be safe. So in the last five games we need 5-8 points to make the 44-47 number. Thee points against Orlando are CRITICAL for a couple reasons:
    1. Not sure there will be an 'easier' win opportunity in the remaining schedule
    2. It will put us 7 ahead of Orlando with 4 to play, rather than 1 ahead!!
    3. It will put us 5 ahead of Montreal who then plays Cincinnati next.
    So here are our last 5 games, where do we get the 5-8 points?? Has to start with 3 against Orlando and then maybe Portland, who is desperate at this point. (note - green highlight means they've improved their PPG over the last couple, red highlight means they have declined and no highlight means they've stayed the same since my August 19th post, if they are close that counts as a no highlight.)

    upload_2019-9-12_17-18-26.png
     
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  8. BrianLBI

    BrianLBI BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 7, 2002
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To my mind, the biggest risk factor is the Eastern Conference seedings not being settled by the time we play NYC & Atlanta. If they are fighting for a seed, we had best have a lock on the last spot by then.
     
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  9. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
    I don't think we'll have a problem qualifying (unless we totally collapse), but I think we need to pass RB in order to do anything other than a one-and-done.

    To do that, I think we need to win tomorrow, win our two remaining home games (the rematch against NYC should be a wild one) and get at least a tie at Portland or Atlanta (who may be locked into a slot and rest some key players).

    I'd guess that Bunbury is close to returning. I'm not totally convinced that there's a correlation, but we clearly seemed to lose steam on offense when he went out. He's clearly been hot/cold as a finisher, but defenses can't really count on that and need to account for him.

    Agudelo was a failure in his attempt to replace him, as was Penilla. JF Caicedo certainly got off to a brilliant start in his opportunity, but the refereeing debacle cut that experiment short. Whether it's Bunbury or not, it seems pretty clear we need some CF to stretch the defense and give Gil and Bou space to do their stuff.
     
  10. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Armchair Analyst: One big question for each MLS team, revisited
    September 12, 2019, 12:05PM EDT
    Matthew Doyle

    Revs:
     
  11. rkupp

    rkupp Member+

    Jan 3, 2001
    Because of the consolidated playoff format, the season is going to come to a very sudden end for a bunch of teams (i.e., more like an NFL playoff than an NBA/MLB/NHL playoff, or even a home-and-home style tourney).

    IOW, you play all season, ~32 games, to get a playoff spot (which may only earn you a road game) - and after 90 minutes you can be all done.

    And, conversely, you can kill it in the regular season, but a stumble in one match (maybe b/c of a bad/missed call by our outstanding reffing crews?) and you could be all done.
     
  12. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to disagree, since everything above is true, but a lot of people were clamoring for a better advantage for the higher seeded team. In a standard 2-leg series with the better team hosting the 2nd leg, they get the advantage of any OT or PKs being at home, but a lot of times we've seen them stumble on the road and have a hard time making it up in the home leg.

    At least the #1 seed gets rewarded with a first round bye.
     
  13. BrianLBI

    BrianLBI BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 7, 2002
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How are the Revs still clinging to a playoff spot?

    Columbus, Chicago, & Toronto drew. Montreal and Orlando lost.
     
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  14. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Revs are going to draw their way into the playoffs. If they get two points from the 2 games this week, ORL will be eliminated, and if CHI drops any points to TOR and MON drops points to ATL, they will be eliminated too, and the Revs will be in.
     
  15. patfan1

    patfan1 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 19, 1999
    Nashua, NH
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Revs need four points to clinch a spot.
     
  16. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The good news is that POR has been shut out in their last 3 games (all home). So if the Revs can manage one goal Wed night...
     
  17. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Or...
    1. Combination of us getting points and Chicago dropping points adding to 4, so long as (i.e. Chicago loses both games, but we lose ours as well...)
    2. We get the same thing with Montreal adding to 3 and so long as
    3. We get the same thing with Orlando adding to 2 and
    4. We get the same thing with Chicago adding to 1.
    Your way is simpler though! 4 points from 3 games.
     
  18. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Revs get in, it's only because no one else wants it:

    Armchair Analyst: All 24 MLS teams in review | Week 29 analysis
    September 22, 2019, 11:10PM EDT
    Matthew Doyle

     
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  19. BrianLBI

    BrianLBI BigSoccer Supporter

    Sep 7, 2002
    New Hampshire
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Helluva time for us to revive the tradition of an annual slump. On the plus side, summer is over....
     
  20. tsb11

    tsb11 Member+

    United States
    May 31, 2018
    The timbers are in dreadful form, but the revs have to fly east to west on a short week. I expect this one could get nasty
     
  21. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    After getting only 2 point from 2 very winnable games I'm not all that optimistic about the playoffs. And I'm OK with it if we don't get in.

    I agree with the poster who said it might be better for the off-season if we didn't. The thinking being that we turned around the season in the post-Freidel era to be respectable, but it is not good enough by any stretch.

    Otherwise, the spin doctors would be like Baghdad Bob, crowing that we are a "playoff team" and all is well. Which it clearly isn't. Instead, with a couple of moves, we can move up to actually being in the top quarter ot top third of the league next year.
     
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  22. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd rather that they make the playoffs. If they just miss, then the goal next year will be to make the playoffs. If they make it this year, the goal next year will be higher.

    If we make the playoffs with half a year of Bruce, then a full year should result in a top 4 conference finish.
     
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  23. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    Oh, but it is so much better because this season's version is a less worse slump. Not as much outright losing as prior years.

    (I am still struggling to read this whole Revs thing with any sort of overall prevailing positivity....they're not there yet.)
     
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  24. A Casual Fan

    A Casual Fan Member+

    Mar 22, 2000
    I am **desperately** clinging to the hope the Arena The Bruce has the power to put an end to that sort of nonsense -- and instead hold this team and its owners accountable to the reality of where they stand competitively.

    Claiming some sort of moral victory when you squeak into playoffs on an endless string of draws reeks of a team with years of accumulated subpar performance, a lack of intent to succeed, and possibly an inferiority complex. That's not the team I want.

    (No other team in Boston plays that game. They ALL know they need to compete year in and year out for a championship, even if some years they falter.).
     
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  25. eric_appleby

    eric_appleby Member+

    Jun 11, 1999
    Down East
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I very much doubt that Arena will feel that "making the playoffs" constitutes a successful season.
     
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