I do but it seems you don't understand logic. How can only three teams have more probability to make it than not when four teams are guaranteed direct qualification?
Those odds must be wrong or they use facts that aren't real facts but bias instead, because as long as any team has chances to get the tickets to the WC (even though they might be very low), they must have some sort of percentage to get there. At present times, the only fact that stands, is that we don't have any team qualified to the WC yet, the same as we don't have any team eliminated yet. A 100 % odds, implies that there is full certainty that it will or has already happened. And a 0 % odd, implies , that their is no chance at all that it will ever happen, and of course that whom holds those odds, is already eliminated. (btw, this is about probabilities, and the basics in calculating them is to use facts as data, and never use any sort of bias or subjective info, as these invariably will affect those results).
It is fact. Basically there is no combination of results that leaves Brasil out and two other teams have very high chances, again just based on multiple combination of results. The only two mathematically eliminated are Bolivia and Venezuela.
NEVER SAY NEVER Scenario with Brazil out : round 14 Brazil 0 - 1 Paraguay Bolivia 0 - 1 Argentina Peru 0 - 1 Uruguay Ecuador 0 - 0 Colombia Chile 1 - 0 Venezuela round15 Peru 1 - 0 Bolivia Chile 0 - 0 Paraguay Venezuela 0 - 1 Colombia Uruguay 0 - 0 Argentina Brazil 0 - 1 Ecuador round 16 Argentina 1 - 0 Venezuela Ecuador 1 - 0 Peru Paraguay 1 - 0 Uruguay Colombia 1 - 0 Brazil Bolivia 0 - 1 Chile round 17 Bolivia 1 - 0 Brazil Argentina 1 - 0 Peru Colombia 0 - 1 Paraguay Venezuela 0 - 0 Uruguay Chile 0 - 0 Ecuador round 18 Brazil 0 - 1 Chile Peru 0 - 1 Colombia Paraguay 1 - 0 Venezuela Uruguay 1 - 0 Bolivia Ecuador 1 - 0 Argentina Final positions : 1.- Argentina........32 pts. (qualified) 2.- Uruguay..........31 pts. (qualified) 3.- Ecuador..........31 pts. (qualified) 4.- Chile...............31 pts. (qualified) 5.- Colombia........31 pts. (playoff ) 6.- Paraguay........31 pts. (out ) 7.- Brazil.............30 pts. (out ) 8.- Peru................18 pts. (out) 9.- Bolivia.............10 pts. (out) 10.- Venezuela......7 pts. (out)
For me, yes. We may not have as much of an ability to grind out results but we're still better than Colombia and Ecuador.
Im Peruvian but in what world are we better than either of those teams? Playing nice and passing it is one thing, but getting results is how you measure how good a team really is. Ecuador doesn't necessarily impress me but I wouldn't say Peru is better because we finally won an away game after 12 years. Colombia has too much quality to be ranked under Peru. Until Peru can win games like yesterday's consistently, which means being able to defend set pieces effectively, then we are adequately placed in the standings. We're playing better but finishing chances is a sign of a complete and mature team. For a team that defends as poorly as we do, you can't afford to miss the chances we do and expect to unseat teams like Ecuador and Colombia to get into qualification spots.
On form, we're better than both those teams. I've seen Colombia's last 4 games and they are absolutely dreadful. Ecuador is a tough one but I'd rank us slightly above them as they have a very good advantage at home but overall they've not been great. We may not be getting the results, but despite that we've still only lost 3 games since the Copa America. We've drawn a lot due to silly defensive mistakes, but if we're on that topic I can name you several mistakes at the back from Colombia as well. Its arguably even worse for them actually. I'm not sure how much you've seen of those 2 teams, but just come out and appreciate that we're playing with the right mentality and seriousness. Dominating the matches and now actually scoring, something we lacked at the start of the qualifiers. Sure we miss chances, but many South American sides do and its not a problem that only we have. Its easy to say Colombia are better than us because of historic reasons and just by looking at the table but Los Cafeteros have genuinely been shocking. You can give me all the stats you want but I've seen them play as well as us and we have been better. All this since the Copa America anyways. Your argument about us not getting results instead of Colombia is also ridiculous. Since september we've gotten 8 points. Colombia with 11 but they've had an easier run of games and grinding out a result against Bolivia is something Peru could do. Especially when Colombia create only 2 chances that look like they were going in and won by a non existent penalty against a Bolivia team with 7 debutants. All this said, I'm not optimistic for our game with Uruguay, but it takes something awful to be worse than what Colombia have been since september. We've not been that
Also, I don't think its fair to judge Peru's ability to grind out results based off the last few games. We beat Ecuador playing ok but not as good since October, and no team could grind out Argentina or Brazil. If anything they should be the ones grinding out the results and to an extent, Argentina is doing that right now.
mathematically ? On Bolivia's favour : In this case, not only points matter, but also goal diference, so here it goes : round 14 Brazil 3 - 0 Paraguay Bolivia 3 - 0 Argentina Peru 0 - 3 Uruguay Ecuador 3 - 0 Colombia Chile 0 - 3 Venezuela round15 Peru 0 - 3 Bolivia Chile 0 - 3 Paraguay Venezuela 3 - 0 Colombia Uruguay 3 - 0 Argentina Brazil 3 - 0 Ecuador round 16 Argentina 0 - 3 Venezuela Ecuador 2 - 0 Peru Paraguay 0 - 3 Uruguay Colombia 0 - 3 Brazil Bolivia 3 - 0 Chile round 17 Bolivia 3 - 0 Brazil Argentina 0 - 1 Peru Colombia 0 - 0 Paraguay Venezuela 3 - 0 Uruguay Chile 0 - 0 Ecuador round 18 Brazil 3 - 0 Chile Peru 1 - 0 Colombia Paraguay 0 - 3 Venezuela Uruguay 0 - 3 Bolivia Ecuador 1 - 0 Argentina Final positions : 1.- Brazil..............42 pts. (qualified) 2.- Uruguay..........32 pts. (qualified) 3.- Ecuador..........30 pts. (qualified) 4.- Bolivia...........22 pts. GD -7 (qualified direct) 5.- Argentina........22 pts. GD -8 (playoff ) 6.- Colombia........22 pts. GD -9 (out ) 7.- Paraguay........22 pts. GD -11 (out ) 8.- Venezuela.......21 pts. (out) 9.- Peru................21 pts. (out) 10.- Chile.................21 pts. (out)
Again, mathematically ? On Venezuela's favour : In this case, not only points matter, but also goal diference and goals scored, so here it is : round 14 Brazil 3 - 0 Paraguay Bolivia 0 - 0 Argentina Peru 0 - 2 Uruguay Ecuador 0 - 2 Colombia Chile 0 - 2 Venezuela round15 Peru 0 - 2 Bolivia Chile 0 - 3 Paraguay Venezuela 2 - 0 Colombia Uruguay 0 - 0 Argentina Brazil 6 - 0 Ecuador round 16 Argentina 0 - 1 Venezuela Ecuador 0 - 1 Peru Paraguay 0 - 1 Uruguay Colombia 0 - 1 Brazil Bolivia 2 - 0 Chile round 17 Bolivia 0 - 0 Brazil Argentina 3 - 0 Peru Colombia 2 - 0 Paraguay Venezuela 3 - 0 Uruguay Chile 0 - 0 Ecuador round 18 Brazil 2 - 0 Chile Peru 1 - 0 Colombia Paraguay 0 - 1 Venezuela Uruguay 0 - 0 Bolivia Ecuador 0 - 2 Argentina Final positions : 1.- Brazil..............43 pts. (qualified) 2.- Uruguay..........31 pts. (qualified) 3.- Argentina........30 pts. (qualified) 4.- Colombia........27 pts. (qualified) 5.- Venezuela.......21 pts. GF 25 GA 31 GD -6 (playoff ) 6.- Ecuador..........21 pts. GF 23 GA 29 GD -6 (out ) 7.- Chile...............21 pts. GF 21 GA 27 GD -6 (out ) 8.- Peru...............21 pts. GF 22 GA 30 GD -8 (out ) 9.- Paraguay.......21 pts. GF 16 GA 25 GD -9 (out ) 10.- Bolivia...........16 pts. (out)
We did Argentina at both final matches at Copa America and Copa Centenario Brazil, at the first match-date, during this same qualifier process (in fact, their only defeat till now). Very good joke. (not good enough for a rep)
We grinded a victory. Technically, the battle (the match) was a draw, but we won the war (the tournament). At the end, which is what matters, we were the ones whom cellebrated, while the others cried.
You misunderstood his point..he was referencing games where 3 points were the prize, and brought in two games from a different competition format Correct me if I am wrong but that match goes down officially as a draw Therefore if the 2015 final had been played in a qualifier you would have lost 2 points at home..
I am grateful to the colorful posters whose imagination brought me some chuckles this morning. Brazil eliminated from Russia 2018 in the current qualification tournament? "Never say never?" I'll say never right now; Brazil will NEVER be in a position to fail to qualify for next year's World Cup. We had struggles early on, but as of now, it's IMPOSSIBLE that Brazil will not qualify. PS: bad refereeing in Buenos Aires... my countrymen should've done better. Oh well.
Time for Peru to be kicked out of world cup contention by Uruguay for the 4th or 5th consecutive time. SiempreCrema stop reading newspapers like Libero, please.
officially goes as a win over a penalty kick definition. And no, we wouldn´t have lost 2 points at home, as FIFA is very clear on that one : when a penalty kick definition takes place, it's 2 points for whom wins it, and only 1 point for whom loses it (in an official draw, it's only 1 point each). For the case at that final match we won 2 points, while the other finalist only got 1 point, reasons why we were crowned as champions (and the other team, not).
well, you are making a statement more with your heart than on real facts. My past posts were to prove that mathematically it was still possible for Brazil to not make the WC; the same thing as to disprove whom said that mathematically, both Bolivia and Venezuela were already eliminated, in this qualifier process. It was also meant to somehow prove wrong a probability chart, someone else posted before, which has many flaws in how data was used, in order to get the results it finally got. We all know that most of those ficticious results I posted, really are not likely to happen, but in football you really never know with absolute certainty what can, or what can't happen. There will always be some few odd results that don't fit in no ones expectations, and if by any strange circumstance or oddity, they do happen, you like it or not, Brazil would be out of this WC. And this is a mathematical fact, not an opinion.
Here's the guy who makes me laugh! Um... no. Theoretically, what you wrote is correct. But those with a working knowledge of CONMEBOL WCQ history would never even posit what you posted. Since the "cada time vs. cada time" system was first implemented, Brazil has never failed to qualify if it achieved 30 points. 1998 and 2014 did not include Brazil as we were the reigning champions for the former and the hosts for the latter. Even when we struggled heading towards 2002, we finished with 30 points - 3rd place overall, only 1 point behind 2-place Ecuador and same as 4th place Paraguay. For 2006 and 2010, we finished with 34 points. Today, a few days before the 14th of 18 matches, Brazil has 30 points with 5 matches to go. History and the current circumstances of both Brazil and other CONMEBOL competitors clearly indicate that it is literally and absolutely impossible for Brazil not to qualify. Your mathematical calculations are, as I wrote, correct - but they're farfetched and utterly unfeasible. This last paragraph is again theoretically correct. And yet again, your mathematical facts will never pan out beyond theory and your calculator or Excel spreadsheets. Now, as for "odd results," it's too bad Chile lost this past Thursday. Your team was the better performer during 90 minutes and I'm sure you would've loved to have won, not only because this is a highly competitive WCQ and those 3 points may well prove to be crucial at the end, but because you would've loved to extend your trash-talking habits against the Argentines, whom I know you Chileans have no love lost for. I hope that your team doesn't see too many more "odd results" in the remainder of this tournament, because it would be rather sad if the reigning Copa América champion (two justly earned titles; I did particularly applaud your 2015 victory in part because some people here were very disrespectful towards your team) failed to reach the World Cup. It would not reflect well upon CONMEBOL. So, going forward, let's both hope that the mathematical facts translate into real-world facts that favor your team (except for the final match, when we will face you on our ground). Realistic soccer fans will not follow "never say never" about Brazil's chances to reach Russia 2018 without the 5th playoff, but that can't be said as of right now about certain other squads.