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Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by juvechelsea, Oct 26, 2018.
E. Alvarez is interesting but he also played Mexico U17 just this year. He could switch...
Arsenal youth on Balogun is impressive, but I can think of at least two who didn't turn out there so no gimmee.
I think he's further along nationality wise because while he did play England U17 this spring he has also accepted a U18 call for us in friendlies this fall.
Side note: Ramos was coaching the U18s at the time which speaks to the unfilled YNT coaching slots stuck behind the senior job.
Hoffman sounds like an interesting future prospect, plays for Karlsruher U17, has been in both our U18 and Germany's U16 and U17 camps. Born here but dad is German and a few years ago went back there for work.
I'm rather optimistic about Hoffmann and Balogun. Hoffmann was born and raised in the US and has played mostly for our youth teams. Balogun isn't really a true #9 but more of a striker/winger hybrid, and his England competition is really difficult, when you look at the likes of Sancho and Rashford and that's just the tip of the iceberg. He's not a standout with England YNTs, instead he's "just another guy" for them, and he's already demonstrated interest in us. In contrast, I think Malone will not be easy to get. First, unlike Balogun, he has yet to demonstrate interest in the US. Second, Germany is kind of struggling at this point: crashed out of the World Cup, got crushed by the Dutch in the UEFA Nations League, have called up just one young-ish striker (Timo Werner) in the last year and a half or so. Their callups of somewhat older, relatively mediocre options like Nils Petersen and Mark Uth for this new cycle shows they don't have the same forward depth of other top Euro countries. Malone has a shot with Germany.
Zelalem provides a cautionary story on multiple levels for Arsenal assets and the NT. Technically he's been on the books there 5 years since as a youth player but they just loan him out and show no interest. And meanwhile his cohort and even kids coming in after him are sliding into the USNT. He was found by Karbassiyoon who himself was supposed to be an Arsenal youth USNT prospect next big thing and it never quite happened. There have been others on English big clubs, eg, Cooper. I struggle to think of Americans who go from their academies to their first team. They all seem to detour into Loan Hell.
At one point it was does he play for us or Germany. Now we don't even call him.
I think people are drawn to the big clubs like moths to the flame but if I were his agent I'd sign my first team deal elsewhere. I know Pulisic was developed here and went abroad at 18 but he's rare in the sense of a big club player who is actually made integral to the big club who signed him. So many of these it seems like an asset strategy that suits the big club but the player spins their wheels or has one good loan year at a place they like but they don't get bought and they bounce around.
I mean, I'm a Chelsea fan, and it's like, an outstanding academy kid or two periodically percolate up into the team. Otherwise they're buying Kante or Hazard and loaning you out. It's the level of play, yes, but also the budgets and the notion that if they detect the slightest imperfection or unreadiness they can pay the going rate to find someone else ready now.
Pulisic's dad, as expected of a ex-pro in the coaching ranks, was just better informed than many other parents. BVB is head and shoulders above most clubs in producing young stars. Our lack of pervasive soccer culture is often what gets us in to trouble at every level.
well that is mostly all on Low both the WC disaster and NL, best thing for Germany is him getting the axe. Talent is there just wrong coach.
Germany in general doesn't call up young strikers to begin with unless they overperform in the league. As for Petersen, guy isn't mediocre, you think it's easy to score for a club like Freiburg? Last season he was involved in half of Freiburg's goals for a team that ended up just above the relegation zone. He's also 1BL all time substitute scorer and production wise in 1BL he's at 71 goals/assists in 163 games. Even NT he has 1 assist in 2 games. Uth on the other hand just doesn't fit Schalke with Tedesco's style of play, exactly the type of player that moves to a club without thinking is he a good fit or not. And just moves because of the club. Although less than 1/3 of the season is done. Still has time to turn the ship around or not.
as for Malone, well in the end of the day his shot is how he does at the pro level and not the youth level. Maybe he pans out or maybe he never does. Could end up like the numerous strikers who aren't good enough for the 1BL and their cap off is 2BL or lower, it's too early to tell. Besides, one has to be aware at all the competition for the same position, in all the age groups. Senior NT is not separated by age groups, so he faces vs everyone not just the 00s. For Youth NT, he's still eligible until the 2023 U21 Euros.
the real question for people who want guys like T.Tillman, M.Tillman, Malone etc. How much of that is based on people even watching any of them play? Or is it just based on youth stats and the club they play at? I recall most of the interest in Butler and Hawkins was based on them being at Bayern. Even when neither will ever be good enough for Bayern, one is gone and the other now can barely get sub appearances. Hoeness sometimes even prefers false 9 over Butler. T.Tillman did well in U17 but fell off afterwards, his bro who seems like potentially bigger talent is also doing well in U17 but could also still fade, too early. Or just look at Maloney of Union, saw tons of interest in him for awhile when he only has 1 pro cap and people wanted him based on what? Him being eligible and playing in Germany and pretty much it. Can anyone say they actually watched him play? Only for him to not have impressed at the US camp and is now left out of the US U20 qualifiers. Which also leans towards him not even making the U20 WC with the USA.
for youth players better to wait how they do as pros before wanting them even more so if they are provisionally cap tied.
I wonder if this has anything to do with it:
"Initially, only two non-German players were allowed in each squad in the Bundesliga. This was increased to three in 1992. In the 2006/07 season, the limits on foreign players were lifted following an agreement between the league association and the DFB. Then, as now however, each club in the Bundesliga and Bundesliga 2 must have a minimum of twelve licensed German players under contract. The UEFA Local Player Regulation was also introduced to promote the development of young players. Since the 2008/09 season, a minimum of eight players in each club must have been trained locally, and four by a club or association in Germany."
I've been critical of MLS because I feel like the 8 international slots in practice become the majority foreign starter rule. I feel like between the academy issues, end of Bradenton, shrinking starter slots for Americans, this is why in a down ebb we're struggling.
But to me EPL at big clubs is even worse. The work permit rules can sometimes be tough for the younger or more marginal internationals. But once you're inside that it's basically a free for all, I assume within the very soft limits of this UEFA HGP rule.
I don't mean this to be nationalistic or xenophobic but I think it sets the dynamic within which our players try to keep their jobs and excel. If CFC can just go out and buy a centerback how invested are they really in a marginal loan player like Miazga. At best they're just betting you either maybe are the one guy who magically turns out, or that they can shop you as an asset for everyone else.
But I do think the precise landing spot for Americans matters and Germany seems more interested, less biased on our players. And to me maybe rules putting some limits on foreign players create a setup, including for their domestics, but also for us, a little less throwaway.
I think they also benefit from having the II teams where you can be on the big club payroll but registered and getting PT on the other team. A player like Sargent is given room to excel without having to worry about them using some career pro in the minors instead. And then on the other hand they can sit around and cherry pick the ones who excel.
forget youth players,if one looks at 1BL and 2BL German-Americans, then a lot of injury issues/prone players in recent times.
I still don't see any German-Americans from the pros that as of yet can be as influential as Jones, FJ, Brooks, and Chandler when it comes to club careers.And from those 4, Jones is retired, FJ is soon to be 31 and has back problems as well as seemingly being displaced from being a starter, even seemed linked with MLS. There are also some indication that other younger players are being prepped to displace/take his place in the future. Big question mark on Chandler who comes back in Feb, has he lost his place on the team? etc.
seems like George and Wooten (if he continues to perform for struggling Sandhausen and stays injury free) are the only options from the remaining lot. Kronholm is 33 and isn't really International caliber. Boyd gets nothing but scrap minutes. Lankford is currently injured and has barely done anything as a pro. The Parker bros are injury prone same goes to Gipson. Morales hasn't really impressed much in 1BL this season either. Costly hasn't done much either for now (too soon for him) and his team could be relegated back to 3rd Liga. Then comes the Boyd and Wooten age factor they are both almost 30+, maybe the new coach continues the recent trend of young/younger strikers.
Brooks is the one. Although I'm not a fan of his, he can do well against aerial attacks and those are much more common in the BuLi than in C-CAF qualifying.
The only real cautionary story GZ and DK tell anyone is dont get injured.
You stuggle to think of any players to think of Americans who went from a teams academy to the first team but then mention Pulisic, who actually went at 16/17. You could add Mckennie who went at 18 and is in the first team. I'm guessing we will see many more in the next few years. Wood went at 14.
There are many different paths and none should be ruled out. The player should choose what is right for them.
I thought Pulisic went to Germany before his 18th b'day
You're right, 16. Deal is because he has Croatian citizenship he could bypass the 18 year old rule.
Sorry but Pulisic and McKennie were developed here and then went abroad. That is effectively cherry picking. I am talking went to Dortmund or Schalke and came up through their system and then stayed there.
you are mixing too many concepts and it is confusing to everyone... I responded to the following statement.
"I struggle to think of Americans who go from their academies to their first team."
Giving two examples isnt cherry picking. Your comments on GZ are misguided and went to Arsenal a similar age the CP went to BVB. GZ started with arsenals u16s and CP started with BVBs u17s.
Was Zelalem not developed in the US? The way you made the claim on the other two, id guess you'd want to do the same for Zelalem.
GZ is complicated, he played in German pro team academies as a child, came here and played traditional club, then went back over (this time to England) at 16. He played for Germany YNT while there and then had to switch.
My point on GZ is pretty darned simple. He has been on the books at Arsenal there since 2013. At a certain point the name brand is pointless if they never play him. I think he has like 2-3 cup games for Arsenal total for a career. Otherwise he bounces around on loan to Rangers, Venlo, etc. Now he is hurt and even when well they don't really fancy him so he's off on loan someplace else. Do that long enough and you end up like Gabe A, etc., career never gets going. Come back here and you are rusty, out of shape, perhaps beat up, and maybe you find a second start like Kirovski or maybe it's soon over like Cervi.
There is a significant amount of this risk in any prospect. But I think there are some unique risks in signing at big clubs where the odds may be actually against you breaking in, and then maybe the loans work or not, maybe they sell you or not.
Hyndman is another one. We kind of blow off a couple years of that, oh, big club loan kid, next year. Next thing you know these people are 23-25 and the window starts to close on having a productive career anywhere. I start to ask questions because that big a prospect shouldn't do an absolute flame out. They should be of some value someplace, I'd think.
I think some of this has to do with club choice because if they go direct to some smaller club and play, you look at lesser names like Novakovich, Amon, you will get your chance. I think if you're Pulisic and it works out great, you're the guy on the Wheaties box. But I think going to and staying at and becoming an integrated part of these big clubs is actually rare and that should factor in the calculus. I mean, Miazga got press for signing CFC. He never really plays there.
If you want my precise opinion, it would be that there is nothing wrong with going abroad but that by about 20 or 21 you need a home where they are integrating you into the first team. Landon went abroad at 17 and was back here on loan by 19. I think career risk should be taken early career or late and in that 20-25 y/o frame ideally you are settled and coming into your own, not on erratic loans or taking splinters and trying to hang on. You do that and I am not sure if you are distinguishable from a MLS draft pick who actually gets to play here.
People tend to pimp EPL and B.1 as fanboys but Championship and B.2 seem to be the more reliable path to career progress. You can climb that next rung up in a bit but you run less risk of being an absolute washout. Look at Green or Wood, what they do going big club vs how their careers go when they are content to be on a good team perhaps in a lower league that actually wants to use them. Not only do they flower for them but they are on fire for us. Jozy's best year was AZ. Jozy got the heck out of there as fast as he could. I don't understand the mentality.
Stefan Frei was a Swiss U15 but has no caps. Now has a US passport. GAA 2018 ~ 1.0.
The only real cautionary tale for GZ is dont get injured. At 20 he had made his way through the youth ranks and clearly wasnt ready for a top 6 EPL side, so they got him loans to second division teams in Scotland (to learn to be a pro and play in front of large crowds) and The Netherlands (to play a different style against men).
There is no right answer and no wrong answer. There are many variables that play into it and each player should look for the situation that helps them maximize their potential. There are cautionary tales from just about every path, but it seems certain people focus on the ones of big clubs.
Im as big of a Hyndman fan that there is. I could see why he chose the path he took and look to make more sense at the time. At this point, it is easy to make a strong argument that it wasn't. Small injuries led to significant periods of not playing at all. He is 22 and in a loan situation that isnt great. Time is running out for him. He needs to have a big break through in the next year or so or the probability becomes very small he makes it a high level. Im a USMNT team fan, so glad he is shooting for the highest level. If he makes it, it is big plus for us. If he is just making his way in a lower level it more average players.
I guess CP and WM are complicated too. They both spend at least a year in Europe at a very young age.
I'm not trying to say a Euro academy hurts. I'd probably say the opposite. But the U18 rule is going to make it rare an American kid can use that. But in either case I think that first team for a big club can be a tough ask for all but the best or most prized prospects, and what you're saying on Hyndman agrees with where I am headed, that if you try and force it too long it's neverending loans and a player can start to not pan out.
I disagree on Zelalem. Zelalem hurt his knee a year or so ago. Prior to that he was with Rangers when they were second division after the bankruptcy, and then Venlo. In the process he's gone from a player preemptively capped to forgotten, and that was true before the knee. You're kind of acting like he's Arsenal but for a knee. They gave him a couple cup games then loaned him out for years, no. They may be playing a waiting game but to me while that time runs the player gets older and older (now 21), and the US moves on without them. There is always another Zelalem coming up. People seem to forget that there are always a half dozen of these future studs at the high age groups and in two years another half dozen and in two years and in two years.......
More I watch more I think if you don't make it almost immediately (like 1-2 years) like Christian or Weah, you should skedaddle while you're still young. Donovan came home and found his feet. You don't have to come home to find a place that will play you. But if you're still perseverating and playing their loan game at 23 how is it that much different than the kids who Traffic used to endlessly rotate around Europe.
Zelalem was never that good. He played a flashy game that looked good on highlight videos, but his performances and skill-set never amounted to anything exceptionally great.