Does a market need to be tested by losing?

So Atlanta United has made every effort to emulate the early on and off- field success of the Seattle Sounders. Leading up to this weekends matchup, stories have been written dictating the relationship between the two franchises leading up to Atl's first game. Darren Eales visited the franchise in Seattle several times, ostensibly to gleam ideas on culture, player selection and team-building. Currently the franchise looks very similar to the one built by Seattle early on. Seattle went with a base of young latin American talent. They didn't need to use DP salaries to acquire Fredy Montero, Osvaldo Alonso or Jhon Kennedy Hurtado, but they did spend one on the transfer fee needed to acquire Alvaro Fernandez. In addition, much like Atlanta's gamble on Kenwyne Jones, the Sounders took a flyer on Freddie Ljungberg, but in the latter case spent a DP Spot. Atlanta also did not need to spend DP spot on Jones, saving all three for it's bigger latin American signings. They did emulate the Montero signing in getting Yamil Asad on loan, however their ability to actually purchase him is questionable.

So all of these similarities brings into focus one question, does anyone really want to tackle the pressure of emulating the Sounders early success in a parity league without pro/rel. Don't get me wrong, I have little problem with the structure of the league. And while I like pro/rel (which I believe keeps things interesting for fans when a franchise enters what here would be considered rebuilding years; instead of TFC and Dynamo losing fans during down years, those fans might stick around to push the team to avoid the drop or gain promotion. Just my opinion for context; quote me and refer all replies related to this particular opinion to this thread over here: https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/arena-promotion-relegation-impossible-dream-world.2029846/page-32#post-35300004) I accept that the conditions are not currently conducive to it. They may never be. We'll have to wait and see. So this being the current state, one has to wonder how a franchise like Seattle whose fans has known nothing except 6 trophies, playoff runs every season and regular appearances in CCL, will encounter a run of apathy like the one the Dynamo are recently recovering from, much less Toronto FC's run of apathy stemming from it's inaugural season.

Consider this quote from Darren Eales as something that he keyed upon when listening to Sounders supporters: https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2017/03/31/wiebe-ambition-admiration-connect-atlanta-and-seattle

We talk about fair-weather fandom quite often in American sports. We imagine that the supporters culture and the allure of the fan experience might be a counter to the drop-offs that a fanbase might experience once in the league. But that didn't help TFC or Houston during their respective down periods.

Perhaps the Portland Timbers have had the perfect balance. They've had years of success and apathy interspersed with one another. They've bounced back from each down year perhaps better than the previous season of success.

With TFC, this is the very poster examination of whether or not even the most fervent fanbase can survive a near decade-long period without on-field success. On initial examination one might say that this proves that it cannot, however, a TFC fan might also say that it was apathy coupled with MLSE increasing season ticket prices despite that apathy that finally broke the camel's back.

The Houston Dynamo, otoh, is the poster examination on whether or not initial success spoils a fanbase later on in it's existence. (Chicago Fire to a lesser extent since it was still formed during the early years of the league, and since then almost all of the franchises founded during that time period have had various struggles to remain relevant within their markets.) Dynamo fans remained engaged throughout their years in the weaker Eastern Conference in which an aging, and largely financially under-invested in squad still managed to make the finals to two more MLS Cups shortly after opening a new stadium. But even with a strong supporter culture, a new stadium etc, the franchises casual fanbase dwindled during their early years in the Western Conference and placement near the base of the table.

As both of the above teams have come out of their doldrums TFC's fanbase has already proven responsive and returned in larger numbers than before. The Dynamo's recent home match shows signs of doing the same. Is this new returned fanbase going to be more resilient than before? Is this a look into the future for a Seattle fanbase who have never not competed for trophies or even a Portland fanbase whose taste of apathy has been short-lived up unil now? Will Minnesota United be better off for being able to cherish each win like a long lost cousin for it's initial time in the league? Or is it better to take on the pressure of having to win every season like Seattle, or Atlanta have to do in order to avoid finding out how loyal their fans truly are?

To be fair, Seattle fans look committed. The championship parade was another milestone in MLS' existence, but we can't truly know how resilient the fanbase is until they... lose. And not just for one year, but for an extended period of time. Sure MLS teams have mechanisms to spend their way out of trouble, and considering the worldwide talentbase in the sport, it's a mechanism that is considerably more effective than in other North American sports leagues. But losing is still inevitable even for the big spenders unless they hit home runs on every single one of their signings. Seattle has had a better average than most. Despite signing Ljungberg, they go some good out of Blaise Nkufo when he finally adjusted and have always signed good keepers without DP tags. But how long can they keep such a balance? They will lose at some point. Are Seattle's fans ready for that? Surely Houston and TFC fans once thought so. As they return in numbers having tasted the cold side of things, perhaps they are the more tested.

 

BBVA Compass stadium has a max capacity of 22,000. What are you talking about?

This thread is about long-term franchise performance and how that affects their respective fanbase. I'm not sure what you're on about.

E2A: Ugh... it took way too long to piece together what you were saying. Those are the totals over three matches for each season if I'm getting you correctly. Yes the number has fallen again this season. But the team is better this season and their last home match was an improvement over the first two, so word seems to be getting around. Toronto took time to turn around as well once Giovinco arrived.

I think this is a place where one can hypothesize that pro/rel could help, however, that would assume that footballing culture and stadium atmosphere cannot also keep fans engaged. We're not too deep into the MLS 2.0 years that made this an emphasis and few clubs have gone up and back down the tables since then in a significant manner. Many teams have been either competitive or noncompetitive for the bulk of that time or been back and forth enough so as not to create a trend.

The only team that we can truly question is FC Dallas, who have been at the top of the table but have yet to really create alot of excitement within their market. However much of that goes to their ownership and the fact that they're an original MLS market. The only original markets that haven't struggled of late are LA (to some extent) and SKC. So perhaps all MLS markets are doomed once they grow old enough, win or lose...

 

Remarkably the fanbase has seemed pretty resilient thus far. It hasn't turned into a graveyard to their stadium, but Toronto fans held out for many years until the ill-advised price hike finally killed the golden goose there until the big buys and Tim Lieweke's revamp in the front office. I wonder if they could use a guy like him to get everything in order down in Philly. The difference seems that, TFC wasn't as complacent as Philly's ownership has been. Even the price hike could be said to have been needed to pay down many of the overpriced signings that they attempted prior to the current set of DPs which didn't work out. TFC threw everything at the wall but were just inept with their signings. Philly's management could be accused of simply promoting mediocrity in the hopes that they might stumble into a phantom playoff run and win a title.