My upset picks for Saturday games (based on last regional rankings) Chicago over Pomona it’s going to be 40 with a 5-7 degree wind chill, and Chicago just won two games with snow on the ground. Pomona played last weekend in similar temps and has a roster full of cold weather natives, but Chicago lives in that weather all season, has juniors and seniors with final four experience, plays regularly on the Wash StL pitch, and won’t have jumped time zones to get there. Stevens Tech over HWS Honestly just a hunch.
@C13soccer I think Pomona vs Chicago will be a great game. The two women coaches have developed great soccer programs and they are not unfamiliar with each other. Pomona was walloped by Uof Chicago losing 0-3 in 2017 but in September of this season Pomona defeated Uof Chicago 1-0 at Chicago. This was 1 of only 2 losses for Uof Chicago all season. Pomona tallied only 1 loss themselves in a conference with some very strong teams. For example, Claremont finished in 5th place in the SCIAC conference (only 6-4-2 in conference games) and Emory finished 2nd in the UAA (5-2-0 in conference games). Yet Claremont just defeated Emory 2-1 in a contest where the teams seemed evenly matched to me. As blasphemous as it may sound this suggests the SCIAC might be on par if not tougher than the UAA. Am I allowed to say that? Based upon my sketchy reasoning I am going to go with the Pomona Sagehens over the Maroons.
Great games today. WS coming back against Stevens was Herculean effort. Pomona-Pitzer / Chicago great fun to watch. Two good teams. Wash U. excellent comeback against CMS. Messiah great effort against Trinity with their two All-Americans on the bench injured. Tomorrow should be great fun.
Damn! DOUBLE DAMN! In my defense, Stevens did carry a 2-0 lead thru 49 minutes. And Pomona needed a golden goal. but....DAMN!
So we’ve got one of the 8Great games tonight between the 2 Cinderella teams to get this far...Carnegie v St Thomas at Wheaton in what was previously id’d as the easiest quadrant of the bracket. Tomorrow we have the non-Cinderella’s. WashStl hosting Pomona and William Smith hosting Hopkins in two 1v2 games by quadrant. That leaves Messiah hosting Williams as the only real chance to pick an upset game. And I struggle to call the Ephs underdogs given their tourney record. Any takers on the Williams pick?
As I stated above, Messiah’s two All-Americans are injured, although I hear rumors that senior Brooke Firestone may play tomorrow after two weeks out with a hamstring injury. Sunny Gelnovatch, an important piece of the midfield probably will not play, so the Falcons won’t be 100% - but is anyone 100% at this point? Williams, I think, is also fired up to win for their Coach’s last season. I don’t think a Williams pick would be that big of an upset. Two great teams that looked good today.
Yesterday’s games. Long post. It was low-mid 40’s with a very light breeze. We had no rain or snow for 2-3 days prior to yesterday, so the field was in pretty good shape for late November in the Finger Lakes. We had good crowds for all four teams. The Dickinson fans had red “terrible towels” à la Pittsburgh Steelers. I chatted with 2nd year Dickinson head coach Ted Zingman’s parents at halftime of the Johns Hopkins game and found out he graduated from Hopkins, so they are used to cheering for both teams. I asked about how the game compared to the first two meetings this year and they said it was going about the same and they felt Dickinson could win the game….. Johns Hopkins 2 – Dickinson 0. There were good discussions of the previous Hopkins-Dickinson matches in this thread; this game seemed to support the observations that Hopkins is a really good, athletic, and fast squad. As ominous as Rachel Jackson (So, Vienna, VA) is as target forward, attacking midfielder Emily Maheras (Sr, Bernardsville, NJ) and outside forward Riley O’Toole (Jr, San Diego, CA) are the most dangerous players. All three are good, tall, strong, and fast; Maheras is best on the ball. O’Toole was wearing a knee brace and her knee seemed to trouble her from time to time. Attacking central defender Mizuho Obayashi (Jr, Ogden, UT) is scary good. Dickinson’s star forward Meg Tate (Fy, Carlisle, PA) did not see enough of the ball to be a factor. I really liked the play of Dickinson left fullback Sarah Williams (Fy, Perkasie, PA) – I didn’t realize she was a first-year until just now. After yielding the first goal, I did not see Dickinson being able to get back in the game – they never really threatened. William Smith 3 – Stevens 2. From the Finger Lakes Times: The Heron soccer team's 3-2 victory over Stevens marked the first time in at least 21 seasons William Smith overcame a 2-goal deficit in a game it won. Equally amazing: In the 217 games they've played in this decade, the Herons have trailed by as many as 2 goals in only 4 games. And, regarding WS’s first goal in the 5th minute of the second half Amanda Adams sent a through-ball to a teammate in an offside position. That player circled away from the ball in order not to be whistled for the infraction. The sequence confused the Ducks’ back line for a split-second, and that’s all the time Sheila McQuillen needed to burst between two defenders and tuck a close-range shot underneath Stevens keeper Izzy DiDario. I heard a Duck fan yell “OFFSIDES,” but in real time, I did not see what he was yelling about; the play was on the far side of the penalty box with many players in the line of sight. In the first half the Ducks played like Herons: immediate pressure on the ball and a cover player in right away. If a Heron tried to hold the ball or dribble it at all, the ball was lost. Both Duck goals were made by excellent shots, which should have been pressured more by the Heron defenders. Probably the worst half of soccer I have seen the Herons play this year – they got out-hustled stem to stern. The Herons started the second half at full speed, Sheila McQuillen scoring in the 50th minute and again 47 seconds later. The second goal (more FLT): Katrine Berg, who provided quality minutes in a substitute’s role, crossed a ball from the left flank to the middle. Julia Keogh’s clever dummy let it roll to an unmarked McQuillen, and the junior settled it just inside the 18-yard line and belted a ball into the far side of the goal. At the time I compared McQuillen’s shot to George “Ice” Gervin scoring for the San Antonio Spurs. The keeper was on her toes, in proper position and McQuillen drove the ball on the ground just inside the far post. Ice. Sorry about my enthusiasm – I love my Herons. I watched Carnegie Mellon vs. St Thomas last night. CM advanced 6-5 in KFTPM. I felt CM was overall the better soccer team, but obviously the game was played dead even 0-0 2 OT. Seven rounds of KFTPM; 4-3 StT going into the 5th, the second CM kick was saved. The 5th CM kicker scored and the last StT kicker could have won the game, but missed wide left. Both made 6th kicks, CM made the 7th and the last StT kick was saved and CM moves on. 17,336
Williams v Messiah moved off of grass at Shoemaker Field to Lacrosse turf. Eerily similar to the 2016 quarterfinal game where #8 Messiah beat #3 Williams 4-1 on their home turf after the game was moved to the football stadium due to a New England snowstorm. These senior classes were freshman for that game. Very odd that this would happen again, only this time a freak PA snowstorm. Can’t figure out if it favors one team over the other...
Today William Smith 2 – Johns Hopkins 0. 42 degrees, partly sunny with a steady breeze in the first half – WS played that half with the wind behind them. The field was in the same shape as yesterday, except for the two games that were played on it. I had the impression that the Hopkins players did more slipping than the WS players. It was a BATTLE. WS’s center defender Maialen Martinez (Jr, San Sebastian, Spain) smothered JH’s Rachel Jackson everywhere and everywhere else JH was marked aggressively. The first few minutes of the game flowed JH’s way, but WS found their balance and the rest of the game was fairly even. JH had shots in the first half, but missed the goal several times. 0-0 halftime score. The game stats favored JH and would make one think WS was on its heels a lot [Shots (17-5), SOG (5-2), Corners (9-3)], but it did not feel that way. Back to the marking – yesterday I always knew where JH’s Maheras and O’Toole were, but today they were hard to find in all the tackling. Hopkins continued to send the ball to Jackson for the full game, even though Martinez denied her the ball time after time. WS’s GK Amanda Kesler (So, Winchester, VA) had an outstanding game, making all the saves and controlling all the services she needed to. WS’s “Ice” McQuillen scored the insurance goal on a long lead pass to the left side from Martinez. McQuillen had pretty much only the keeper to beat after receiving the ball about 25-30 yards out even with a defender running over at top speed to disrupt her. She headed to goal and slotted her shot on the ground to the far post. After the game I saw one of the moms from the 2013 team “coaching-up” a mom of one of this year’s first-year players about going to the Final Four. It’s nice to have connections and continuity. I see Messiah did not get bumped out via KFTPM today – good on them. And I'm very happy for Pomona-Pitzer - in the post game, their coach told the interviewer they had logged 9,000 airline miles so far in the tournament. 17,485
Great games Sunday, watched all three (William Smith and Messiah concurrently). Very impressed with Ponoma-Pitzer, they surprised me with how they went toe-to-toe with Wash U. The WS and Pomona semifinal game will be a great one. I was also impressed with the job William Smith did with JHU, especially Jackson. She is a strong force for Hopkins and they kept her out of the game. Took Maheras out of the game, too. Strong defensive game for WS. Impressive win for the Herons. Messiah/Williams was greatly impacted by the wind. All four regulation scores were in the same goal, with the wind. The Ephs' Tolliver up top had a great game and nearly single-handedly won the game for Williams. Messiah's Brooke Firestone came in and played a midfield role instead of her usual forward, and that could have been the difference in the game. It kept her in the game and not having to make any long runs and able to rest her hammy. Without All-American midfielder Gelnovatch in to distribute the ball, there was a void that Firestone filled admirably. Great to see the Falcons get the PK monkey off their back, but felt bad watching Coach Pinard's post-game press conference. She is a class act and her team played their hearts out for her.
Comparison of Final Four Teams I watched a re-play of WashU vs. Pomoma-Pitzer and observed that Pomona-Pitzer is both quick and fast and they instantly recover when transitioning to defense. I’m not sure that they have one, two or three players immediately on the ball, however, everyone gets in defensive position right away. I do not think you can go over the top to get behind them, but if you do not move quickly into the attack, the whole team will be there to defend you. Based on the stats, Messiah looks favored to win it all, however their only loss this year was to William Smith and Pomona Pitzer is a defensive stone wall. For the semi-final games Massey has Messiah 78% to Carnegie Mellon 22% to win and Pomona Pitzer 68% to William Smith 32% to win. The overall offensive and defensive stats look like this. SEASON TeamGPGGAAShutoutsMassey SOS Messiah3.630.33192.32-10th Carnegie Mellon2.430.7422.19-18th Pomona Pitzer2.740.21202.34-5th William Smith2.320.27172.22-16th LAST 8 GAMES TeamGFGAShutoutsKFTPM GamesOther Messiah2936WilliamsNo other OT games Carnegie Mellon1864St. ThomasLosses to Chicago, WashU Pomona Pitzer2208WashU OT win vs Chicago William Smith2027NoneNo OT games 18,267
Maybe it is just this year but it seems as though women coaches have experienced a rate of success in D3 that is disproportionate to the actual number or women coaches...U of C, Pomona, William Smith, Williams and more all skippered by Female coaches...it's interesting...
@CoachJon I believe you are partial to WS but what do you and others think the Finalist teams will be...?
Since you asked, I think Messiah makes the final. The other semi winner is very hard for me to pick. The stats and Massey favor Pomona Pitzer in that game. The 10-player defense that PP has is intimidating and WS does not have a big GPG average. WS had a gutsy come-from-2-goals-down win vs. Stevens and a 90-minute battle with Hopkins, while PP went to OT to win over Chicago and went to KFTPM vs WashU – a game I did not feel was an especially physical contest. The last time WS was in the semi-finals before 2013 was in 2011. I remember feeling very strongly the Thanksgiving break hurt the WS’s momentum built during that tournament. They lost to Messiah 1-0 and Messiah went on to win it all. We don't know how the break will affect any of the teams. I don’t think that being in the final 4 before will give much of an advantage to WS because these players have not been there before. The 2013 WS championship team was preceded by semi-final appearances in 2011 and 2010. To conclude, I think both PP and WS coaching staffs will have prepared their teams and the game will come down to soccer being a “player’s game.” The girls will determine who wins.
Just to add a little color...C Moraga was the assistant coach for the Whittier College Poets and was well regarded by the players from what I understand. In 2017 Moraga helped guide the Poets to one of the only NCAA tournament appearances in Whittier College history. Last season the HC retired and Moraga appeared to be passed over for the HC position at Whittier...and looky here now Moraga is the assistant coach at Carnegie Mellon and his team is playing in the Final Four...maybe he should not have been passed over after all...
The semi-finals and final are live streamed on NCAA.com Friday: https://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2019/12/06 Games at 11:00 am and 1:45 pm EST. Saturday: https://www.ncaa.com/liveschedule/2019/12/07 Game at 2:30 pm EST. In the past I have found the production to be pretty good.
D3soccer.com has previews of the two semi-final games: Messiah vs. Carnegie Mellon: https://d3soccer.com/ncaatournament/2019/Women/final-four-previews/2019-Womens-semifinal-1-preview William Smith vs. Pomona Pitzer: https://d3soccer.com/ncaatournament/2019/women/final-four-previews/2019-womens-semifinal-2-preview 19,172
UAA All Americans have been announced: https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/united-soccer-coaches-announces-ncaa-division-iii-all-america-teams/ WashU and Wheaton both have two First Team players. Three-time All Americans: Julia Panko (Stevens), Brooke Firestone (Messiah), and Ashley St. Aubin (Augsburg) One freshman: Alex Adams (3rd Team, Carnegie Mellon). Five sophmores: Kate Luers (3rd Team, Wartburg), Alex Balfour (3rd Team, St. Thomas), Brianna Crowley (2nd Team, Arcadia), Sara Bakke (1st Team, Wheaton), Gabbie Cesarone (1st Team, WashU).
This might be a stretch.. Carnegie Mellon had the worst year in many years in C Moraga 1st season and had a 5 game improvement this year but Yon Struble is well regarded and done very well historically. Whittier finished 4th in the conference and made the tourney only to get trounced 4-0 in the 1st round in the season you are referencing. I would say we need to give it a few more seasons before we make a judgement. Whittier has been competitive the last 2 years in the SCIAC and hired a quality coach by all accounts.
Agree that Coach Yon at CMU is a great coach and well regarded as a coach...I like how his teams play....and no disrespect intended for the new hire at The Poets admittedly, however, winning only 3 games this season was disappointing... with respect to the 2017 NCAA tournament, I watched the Whittier 0-4 loss to PacLu and would aver that the game was not nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. Whittier had 9 shots vs 7 shots for PacLu and Whittier had 3 corner kicks vs 4 for Pac Lu. Pac Lu converting their shots (one was a sweet header as I recall) was the difference. Also, Whittier won the 2017 SAIC Championship by defeating CalLu and then Pomona in the Final.
Well Messiah advances after PK's and after being behind 0-1 for a decent portion of the game. I thought Messiah was the better team overall. CMU's goalie had a few daring saves defeating Messiah forwards in 1v1s...CMU had a lot of difficulty simply connecting passes to their forwards. Despite that CMU had at least 2 shots that seemed to miss by a few inches...overall however, most of the game was played within 30 yards in front of the CMU goal.
Both Semi-Final full game replays are on NCAA.com plus a short highlight video covering both games. The post game press conference for the WIlliam Smith Pomona Pitzer game is on this page: https://www.sagehens.com/sports/wsoc/2019-20/releases/20191206rpzit1 I did not find a post game press conference for the Messiah Carnegie Mellon game on either team's web site. Annually I say that it is not right that the D1 athlete-students get a day to rest between the semis and final while the D3 student-athletes have to play the final on the day after the semis.