Some interesting results this week: You mentioned the Hopkins win! Amherst beat Middlebury 2-0 today Case Western beat Rochester MIddlebury also tied yesterday 0-0 Trinity (CT) Va Wesleyan drew with Washington and Lee Albright upset Arcadia Stevens had a scare vs Kings college down 1-0 with 18 mins left but came back to score two late Pomona after losing to Cal Lutheran 3-1 Wednesday rebounded with a 1-0 win vs. rival CMS Emory got two good wins on the weekend
Arcadia v Albright was quite a game. Albright scored :13 seconds in, held off the Knights until :40 left in regulation then gave up a header goal off a corner. Then, Albright went right down the field on the kickoff and got a corner and scored with :03 left in the game. Means that Arcadia will probably once again have to go to Messiah for the MAC Commonwealth Championship game.
The first of four NCAA D3 regional rankings were released yesterday. These rankings are are the biggest factor of what determines the tournament selections of the at-large teams. https://d3soccer.prestosports.com/rankings/2019/women/regional-rankings-1
It was interesting to see the SOS of the top teams. Below is a table of the top ten SOS with Massey SOS for comparison. RankPtsTeamMassey 1699Emory2(2.49) 2689JHU1(3.03) 3668Wheaton8(2.15) 4667William Smith4(2.33) 5660Denison12(2.04) 6644Stevens3(2.41) 7643Chicago5(2.32) 8640Brandeis31(1.66) 9638Messiah6(2.23) 9638Tufts7(2.22)
What is most interesting is that Dension is ranked so highly. They're an average side at best. They play in a weak conference (NCAC) and, additionally, may not even win that conference. They're barely squeaking by some of the weaker teams in that conference. Their best results have been draws with Carnegie Mellon and Ohio Northern. I'm really flummoxed how Denison's SOS is so high. They would get drilled by most of the teams on the list with them.
Fun stuff ahead in at least 3 big conferences.... Nescac is up for grabs. Middlebury Tufts Williams + Amherst will likely grab the top 4 slots in their 8 team conf tourney and anyone can take it. Middlebury v Williams is on tap for tomorrow. UAA goes without a tourney to end the season, but they have a defacto one in the works to end the reg schedule. Washington, Chicago and Carnegie Mellon are at the top of the table. Fri sees Wash and Carnegie face off. Sunday it’s Carnegie at Chicago. And Tuesday it’s Wash at Chicago. Chicago has the home advantage in their last 3 games! Centennial is still very much up in the air. They play a 5 team tourney to settle things for good, but the battle for the top seed and hosting rights is up in the air. Dickinson has a 2 point edge on Hopkins. Both are unbeaten in conference. Hopkins has a tough match at Gettysburg Wednesday and then Sat they close vs Franklin & Marshall - 2 opponents fighting each other for the 5th spot in the dance. Dickinson’s last 2 games are significantly more challenging as they face #3 McDaniel (a team looking to avoid the dreaded 4v5 game to start the tourney) and then Gettysburg. (If Gettysburg can’t get a result vs either Hopkins or Dickinson, they risk being left out of the league tourney)
Conference play is almost over and tournaments are coming right up. Which players have been recognized as Players of the Week (POW) more than once by their League or Conference? I only looked at conferences of the Top 25 teams. Players to watch as the season ends: Defensive POW (* = GK) 4X *Emma Hill (Jr, Centreville, MD): Salisbury *Madi Welliver (Jr, Turbotsville, PA): Susquehanna 3X *Madison Lockard (Jr, Oswego, IL): North Central *Emma Bruno (Sr, Pittsburgh, PA): Baldwin Wallace *Sarah Schollenberger (Fr, Woodbury, NJ): Coast Guard 2X Gabbie Cesarone (So, St. Charles, IL): WashU Julia Mulhern (Jr, Beaconsfield, QUE): St. Lawrence Keegan Caffrey (Fr, South Windsor, CT): Stevenson *Olivia Donkus (So, Kutztown, PA): Albright *Christina O’Block (Sr, Libertyville, IL): Carroll *Lindsey Bolas (Jr, Troy, MI): Oglethorpe *Kayla Usborne (Fr, Madison, NY): Brockport *Skyelar Mantz (Fr, Lodi, MI): Mt. Union Kendall Groom (Sr, Frisco, TX): Hardin-Simmons Lyndsay Wytkind (Sr, Bethesda, MD): Haverford Offensive POW 4X Riley Cook (Jr, Mechanicsville, VA): Christopher Newport Lydia Lawson (Sr, Mountain Top, PA): Elizabethtown Alana Hughes (Sr, Lexington, KY): Centre 3X Lexi Dean (Jr, Schenectady, NY): Pottsdam 2X Taylor Cohen (Sr, Pittsburgh, PA): WashU Bria VarnBuhler (Sr, Santa Rosa, CA): Pomona Pitzer Erin Scarborough (Sr, Myersville, MD): Hood Caelyn Stefffens (So, Normal, IL): Illinois Wesleyan Marisa Adelman (Sr, Branchburg, NJ): William Patterson Emily Yergin (Sr, Warrenton, VA): Shenandoah Jenna Fuller (Jr, Countryside, IL): Ohio Northern Migui Boldrin (Sr, Ribeiaro, Brazil): Centenary Taylor Bernal (Sr, Abilene, TX): Hardin-Simmons Hannah Schepers (So, Port Deposit, MD): McDaniel Erika Muskus (So, Scotch Plains, NJ): Gettysburg Meg Tate (Fr, Carlisle, PA): Dickinson Rookie of the Week 3X Christine Cataldo-Smith (Fr, Yardley, PA): RIT; also 1X Offensive POW Samantha Senatore (Fr, Whitehouse Station, NJ): Montclair State 12,544
update*** NESCAC - Tufts, Middlebury, Williams, Amherst all grabbed the top seeds as expected and all advanced in the quarters, although only Middlebury could do it in 90 mins. Semis on Saturday will see a replay of last season’s national title game, Williams vs Middlebury. In the UAA, Case Western decided to be the spoiler, and almost did it twice! They beat Chicago at home to start the weekend and had WashSTL down 1-0 late in the 2nd half before Wash pulled it out 2-1 in the 2nd OT. That also clinched the uaa title and the auto bid into the ncaas for Wash. The showdown on Tues at Chicago is the home teams chance to secure 2nd place in the conference. Carnegie Mellon is now on the outside looking in and needs a win vs Case Western to improve their ncaa chances. In the Centennial, Gettysburg didn’t get the memo that they were out of it and stunned Hopkins in a 2OT win in PA, the Blue Jays first conference loss. Dickinson rolled through their remaining games and took the #1 seed to Hopkins #2 in the conference tourney. #4 Gettysburg now hosts #5 McDaniel on Wed night for the right to play Dickinson while Hopkins and Haverford square off in the 2v3 game on Saturday. Finals on Sunday. Finally a well deserved shout out to the Western CT State team. In his 4th year as head coach (after many years as lead recruiting asst) Coach Alex Harrison has led the Colonials back to the conf tourney for the 4th time looking for his 4th straight conf title and ncaa bid. The often (justifiably) over-looked Little East Conference is situated amidst some heavyweight D3 soccer conferences (Nescac, NewMac to the North...NJAC, CommonWealth and Centennial to the South and West...and even a couple of UAA member schools sprinkled around them). All this, plus living in the heart of Ivy country makes recruiting a near impossibility for WCSU. Yet despite this, they have dominated their conference and routinely challenged themselves with non conf matchups like the recent 2-0 loss to Stevens Tech. And for what!?! The chance to get a shot at the big dance for just one game - where they are usually served up as cannon fodder to some of the top seeds in the country. They played Johns Hopkins, TCNJ and Middlebury in the last 3 years and only lost to Middlebury 1-0! So good on you Colonials! If you are looking for a Cinderella to root for in the next couple weeks, give them a look.
Two big upsets last night - Augustana and #5 Wheaton played to a 0-0 draw through 2 OT periods. Augustana advances to the CCIW final on PKs, 4-2, where they will face Illinois Wesleyan for the title and the AQ for the CCIW to the NCAA. Wheaton had a 30-4 shot advantage with 16 on frame. Got to put those chances away! Wheaton will still get an at-large bid so this is probably taking an at-large from another school. IWU had a slim chance to advance to the NCAA as an at-large without winning the title game if they had faced Wheaton and lost. Now they really need to beat Augie because there is no way that that the CCIW will get three bids. Mary Washington beat #8 Christopher Newport, 1-0, in the CAC semifinal. Mary Washington, with a record of 10-10, now plays York, 9-12 record, in the CAC final. As with the CCIW, this is probably taking an at-large from someone. Christopher Newport will more than likely get an at-large and the CAC winner the AQ. Additionally, as with the CCIW, I just don't see the CAC getting three bids so Salisbury is probably going to be the odd man out. In another game, Otterbein, of the Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC), needed 2 OT periods to overcome 8-9-1 Wilmington. Unless Otterbein advances to the OAC final and wins, they may be playing themselves out of a bid. Last week Otterbein lost to a fairly average Capital team, 2-0. The OAC is not a particularly strong conference and usually only gets the AQ with no at-larges. The best bet for the OAC to get two bids would be if a team other than Ohio Northern get the AQ in which case ONU would have a chance at an at-large.
Very helpful for the upcoming weekend matches. Interesting note: The 2 Rookies played club ball together and obviously have taken it to the next level.
Just watched Dickinson decisively defeat Gettysburg 3-0 and Johns Hopkins defeat Haveford 1-0. It seems to me that Dickinson should be the favorite to win the Centennial Conference Final versus Hopkins and thereby obtain the automatic bid to the NCAA D3 tournament. The Dickinson players seem to play possession with poise and purpose and to a degree I have not seen in many teams outside of Williams and the UAA. Dickinson also seems to have some great athletes to execute their coach's strategy.
Show what I know. Since posting this on Oct. 13th, Amherst has won 7 in a row including wins against Middlebury and Tufts, scored 20 goals and had 1 scored against. They will play tomorrow for the NESCAC Championship.
D3soccer.com lays it all out in pretty good detail. Great site on a shoe string budget. Always interesting how human committees work. More and more data now but still never certain how committees "weigh" the different variables. Some view schedule strength strongly, others think head to head and common opponents is more important. I do like some emphasis on your finish. Conf Tournaments are important and a strong indicator of 'form'. As opposed to an early season win over a ranked team. If you finish strong, you get a bid! If you don't, you may lose out. In the S. Atlantic, Va Wesleyan could steal a bid today like Mary Washington did yesterday. That pushes all the other ranked teams to be considered down behind Macon/CNU. Will the Centennial really get 4 bids? Dickinson seems newly impressive team. The UAA advantage should continue. NESCAC seems messy this year but their top 4 are solid. https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-pool-c-early
Yes I thought the first goal from PK was not earned but the second JHU goal was well deserved and earned. I still think that this season Dickinson played some of the best soccer at this level. Now on to the tournament!
I thought the 1st goal (the pk) was UNFORTUNATE for Dickinson but definitely earned. It was not a direct scoring opportunity, but the JHU forward was going to get the ball near the end line to the goalies right and make a decent cross - so it was an indirect scoring threat. And unfortunately Dickinson tripped her from behind. Left the Ref no choice but to blow the whistle. The forward, O’Toole, is a junior returning from ACL, and regaining her form at the exact right time for Hopkins. She torched Dickinson all game with speed runs up the left sideline. Coupled with the previously discussed handfull Jackson at target forward, Dickinsons back line was under attack all day even after Hopkins parked the bus with 15 to play. In fact Jackson earned a PK attempt late in the game that the Dickinson goalie made a great save on to keep the score from being 3-0. The game stats point to another difference - by a large margin, Dickinson kept getting then ball to likely conference PoY Tate to do the shooting. That lead to a lot of Route 1 attacks and shots from distance. Hopkins shooting stats were more evenly balanced across the team.
The lower halves of the Messiah and William Smith quarters look tough. There will be some great second round matches.
UAA and Centennial the big winners in the bracket with 5 teams each. and for the first time in 4 years? Williams will have to play some opening round games on the road.
My DIII Bracket Analysis I calculated: Rank Index Points (RIP) = (UCS Rank + Massey Rank + Herosports/Bennett Rank) divided by 3. UCS is a poll while Massey and Herosports/Bennett are both numerical based on stats. I used the RIP to indicate the relative strength of teams and brackets. I graded each bracket by summing the RIPs for the top five teams in each bracket, regardless of how they were seeded within the bracket. (20 out of the 64 teams) Disclaimer: These are imaginary numbers and no true meaning can be extracted from them. A. The four brackets are not as well balanced as the last couple of years . 2019: 56, 63, 83, 48 2018: 54, 57, 55, 69 2017: 50, 51, 55, 80 B. The last 3 years, each of the four strongest teams was in a different bracket. This year, two of the top 4 are in the Upper Left bracket while none are in the Lower Left. The next four teams each appear in a different bracket. C. For the fourth year in a row, all four brackets are set up so the two strongest teams in the bracket can’t meet until the Quarter Finals, which is an improvement compared to previous years when strong teams faced-off in the first or second round. ------Rank Index Points for Top Five Teams in Each Bracket------ UPPER LEFT--------------56------------UPPER RIGHT------------63 Messiah -------------------------1--------------------WashU---------------------------6 Randolph-Macon------------22------------------Cal Lutheran-----------------21 MIT--------------------------------6---------------------Emory---------------------------19 TCNJ-----------------------------9---------------------Pomona-Pitzer---------------4 Tufts----------------------------18---------------------Chicago------------------------13 LOWER LEFT-------------83----------LOWER RIGHT------------48 Wheaton------------------------7--------------William Smith----------------------4 St. Thomas--------------------23--------------Middlebury----------------------16 Ohio Northern----------------26--------------Johns Hopkins------------------7 Centre---------------------------8---------------Christopher Newport---------13 Arcadia-------------------------19--------------Dickinson---------------------------8 14,222
I'm having a difficult time understanding why Centre is ranked as highly as they are. It's true that they are undefeated but they have a low SOS. Apparently the selection committee agrees with me somewhat because Centre is not hosting. How often does a team go undefeated and not earn the right to host? Below I'm going to paste a note I left on the D3soccer forum. These are just my initial thoughts in looking at the bracket. So are there any omissions or inclusions in the field that surprised anyone? I have heard some grumbling from Centre fans that despite a 21-0-0 season, they are not hosting and must travel to Ohio Northern. I actually am going to respectfully disagree with those fans. Centre has one of the lowest SOSs in the entire field. Unless I'm mistaken, Webster and Concordia are the only teams in the field with a lower SOS than Centre. If Jay Hoffman wants to enhance Centre's prospects of hosting, he should have a stronger OOC schedule because the conference that Centre plays in, the SAA, is not strong. Centre's best win of the year was definitely its 1-0 win over Emory at the end September but the Colonels did not face enough other quality opponents to supplement that win. There was a game scheduled against Mt St Joseph, an NCAA qualifier last season, but they were not a good side this season. NCAC teams Wittenberg, DePauw, and Denison were all on the schedule as well but none of those teams were that strong this season and the NCAC was not a strong conference. The lone OAC conference team on the schedule, Mt Union, was not that strong and, again, the OAC was a middling conference. Centre would be better off scheduling more difficult sides and perhaps losing a few along the way as opposed to how Hoffman currently schedules. This would also prepare them more for the post season. The Colonels do have a decent chance to survive the opening weekend but I don't see them hanging around after the second weekend. Assuming that Centre wins their opening game, they'll more than likely face a very beatable Ohio Northern team in the second game. Jim Hutchinson and Christan Shirk did an excellent job of analyzing and predicting the field prior to the selections. Here is is if you haven't read it already: https://d3soccer.com/columns/jim-hutchinson/2019/womens-at-large-analysis-and-predictions In the analysis, Otterbein and Wesleyan were listed as being "on the right side of the bubble." Both must have been on the wrong side of the bubble because neither was selected. I was actually surprised that Otterbein was mentioned as having a good chance due to losing to Ohio Northern in the OAC final. I honestly can't remember the last tie that the OAC had an at-large selection. The conference is decent but is not particularly strong. I would have been surprised if Otterbein had made the field and their omission was the correct decision by the committee. I was more surprised by the omission of NESCAC member Wesleyan. Wesleyan had a 4-4-1 record versus ranked teams including a 2-1 win over Williams. What probably doomed Wesleyan was going 0-3 over the last 3 games. I was a little surprised that the Centennial Conference had 5 selections. I thought one of Swarthmore or Haverford would be in the field but not both. There were 10 selections in the tournament between the UAA and the Centennial. Last year the UAA also had 5 teams in the field and that did not turn out well for them.
5 from Centennial: Dickinson, Hopkins, Haveford, Gettysburg and Swarthmore with the last 4 teams all having 6 Conference wins each... 5 from the UAA : WashU, Emory, U of Chicago, Carnegie Mellon and CWR w a 2 win -5 loss conference record as a testament to how tough the UAA is... 4 from the NESCAC: Tufts, Middlebury, Amherst and Williams...
I agree about Centre and their less than weak schedule. I follow Chicago a bit and was surprised by the record of their opening opponent Pitt Greensburg. They too are undefeated with just a single draw as a blemish. Looked up their schedule on Massey and they haven’t played a single opponent under 225 on Massey with most in the 300s or more. Masseys best of 7 sim has Chicago beating them in 4 games some by double digits!
Interesting comments about Centre. It's still a decent accomplishment to have a season with 1 tie and no losses. For what it's worth, Masey rankings has Centre ranked at #4 in the nation despite their comically weak SOS...With respect to the Centennial, in the last game of the season, Swarthmore defeated Haveford 3-0 and I wonder if that tipped the scale for the Garnet. Also, the fact that 4 of the teams from the Centennial had 6 Conference wins each may have also played a role... Also very impressed with D3 soccer's forecasts for the at large bids...
Just to be clear, it was not my intention to dismiss Centre or try to degrade them in any way. I am not interpreting your comments as you viewing my comments that way. I merely want to clarify myself. I have no doubt that Centre is a very good team. It is also an excellent school. Centre actually has no ties this season. They're 21-0. For the group of players that are seniors this season, they are 76-6-5 over the last 4 seasons. That is very impressive. Jay Hoffman is also a very good coach. My main point that I was trying to convey is that I believe that they would be better served by beefing up their schedule. The conference is not all that tough so it will need to be done vs OOC opponents. It looks like they tried to do that by scheduling Emory plus some other sides that have historically been decent. Aside from Emory, though, those teams did not really have great seasons. DePauw played in the NCAC final but, again, that is really not a strong conference. In the future they should put some more UAA teams on the schedule. Go to an early-season event where they'll play better teams, etc. There's a lot that they can do. They might not win all of their games but they also might not find themselves being undefeated and being on the road as they are this year.