Stevens held tight to messiah in every category but the score in a 2-0 loss. WashStl couldn’t get past/around/over/under the bus that Hope parked in front of the goal despite lopsided shooting and corner stats. Good on Hope for the draw.[/QUOTE] What were your thoughts on the Lynchburg/Hopkins game regarding why they handled them easily? Was Lynchburg level of play down from losing all those seniors, Hopkins just superior, or a combo?
What were your thoughts on the Lynchburg/Hopkins game regarding why they handled them easily? Was Lynchburg level of play down from losing all those seniors, Hopkins just superior, or a combo?[/QUOTE] Just going by the stats
Speaking of going by the stats, if you looked at the box score for yesterday’s matchup between visiting Hopkins and Messiah, you would bet good money that Hopkins had won. They were clear leaders in both shots and SOG’s. But alas, soccer. Messiah wins on a poor pass by the Blue Jays goalie that left Messiah with an empty net goal from inside the 18. It was their first SOG of the game at the 58 min mark. The game showed that either A) Hopkins is a legit top 10 squad, or B) Messiah is not as strong as in years past, or 3) both deserve their current ranking. We will know by Saturday night as both teams face ranked opponents - Hopkins at Stevens and Messiah at William Smith.
That perfectly summed up what I saw. My reaction to the game used a lot more words, and probably doesn't make the points so clearly. I watched this one on the live stream. The goal came from a howler of a turnover by the Hopkins GK in the 58th minute. It seemed to be a combination of her caught deciding whether to pass or to clear the ball plus her kick being a stub or a shank when she made it. Otherwise the game was even. Hopkins played pretty much Route 1 to target forward Rachel Jackson (So., Vienna, VA). Hopkins was aggressive in attack, making lots of shots from 18+ yards out. Messiah defended well and countered. The story of the game can be found in the stats. Hopkins led in shots 17 (6) to 8 (4). It was 8 to 2 in the first half. Messiah led in corners 6 to 1 – Hopkins fired the ball over the goal line, resulting in few corners while Messiah worked the ball in, earning corners rather than taking wasteful shots. During Messiah’s corner kick opportunity in the 62nd minute, Hopkins made 2 clears off the line, with the ball headed away by two different players (if I saw that right). Messiah’s senior forward Ellie Lengacher (Goshen, IN) had a very active game. The only score came from first year forward Brianna Seip (Jonestown, PA) – the only first year to start for either team. The rosters show patterns I have found to be typical of D3 Woso, which reflect both the institution’s academic reach and the coach’s recruiting strategies. Of 35 on the roster, Johns Hopkins has players from 18 different states, while all of Messiah’s 27 players, except 4, are from Pennsylvania.
I watched it live stream as well and concur with your “extra words” of analysis . I would add that Hopkins defense may be the strength of the team. Holding Messiah to just 4 shots on goal, and the goal being the only really dangerous run of play shot (the other 3 came off a single corner scrum, and two of those were headed away by a Hop defender!) says a ton about their defense. They are really fast in the back 4, especially in the two wings (Obayashi and Damron). The latter’s bio says she is also the Centennial 400m champ.
Emory at Christopher Newport - based on the statistics a very close game. Shots SoGs and corners all within 1 or 2 of each other. But #4 CNU hangs a 2-0 loss on Emory. Messiah’s string of winning games they were otherwise upside down in (Stevens and Hopkins) comes to an end at William Smith. In a statistical dead head they fall 2-0. WashU also suffered a similar fate, outshooting St. Thomas by a 2x margin, but falls in the 2nd OT, 1-0. Hopkins and Stevens (both recent Messiah victims) squared off in Hoboken. Hopkins repeated its 2x shooting dominance from the Messiah loss, but this time managed a 2 goal draw. They converted 4-2 on the shootout for the purposes of Stevens “tourney”, but it still counts as just a 1 point tie on the official results. Wis LaCrosse edged IL Wesleyan 2-1 on a very close statistical game.
William Smith 2 Messiah 0 in Geneva, NY It was an even 70 degrees with cloud cover for today’s game. The end of game stats looked pretty even, however only one Messiah foray at goal in the first half appeared to be dangerous. William Smith has an excellent defense, which I think will allow them to go pretty far this year. I thought WS’s midfielder Amanda Adams (Jr., Rowley, MA) played brightly; she fairly buzzed around the field and helped force the turnover that led to her scoring the second goal less than one minute into the second half. Coach Frey earned his 400th win vs. Grove City to open the season and Messiah has beaten pre-season #24 Stevens and #16 Johns Hopkins, but after seeing them today and Wednesday vs. Hopkins, I don’t think Messiah has the swagger they have had in the past. OTOH, in the closing 5 minutes today, Messiah pushed and pressed very hard to put a goal in – so they seem to be able to play the intense end of game push like they always have done. William Smith is now 5-4-3 vs Messiah going back to 2008 and have won 4 straight. All of the games have been shutouts, except 1-1 regular season draws in 2012 and 2015. For WS, the series started painfully, losing to Messiah in the NCAA semifinals in 2008, in 2010, and again in 2011. They have not met in the NCAAs since then. 4963
And in the late Saturday T25 matchup in Texas, Trinity scored 3 unanswered before Hardin Simmons put a late PK in to make it 3-1 for the 18 ranked visitors. Shots, SOG and corners all seem pretty equal. Anyone watch this one that can provide color?
After yesterdays loss to Trinity U., maybe Hardin-Simmons will also fall out of the rankings. They are currently 0-2-1. However, they may well win their next 16 regular season matches. Could WashU also fall out? I doubt it.
I was curious about the geographical distribution of D3 colleges and universities, beyond the general understanding they are mostly private schools in the east and midwest. In particular, I was curious about D3 in WA, OR, and CA. Wikipedia lists 443 D3 schools in 35 states plus D.C. – I am not sure how many have women’s soccer. D3soccer.com lists the schools by Region. The numbers for the West Region are: CA-11; CO-2; NE-1; OR-5; TX-16; WA-4; Total = 39, or 9% of all D3. So, it is geographically and economically tough for WA, CA, and OR schools to play against the top schools in the rest of D3. Four schools that have managed to be competitive and stay in the Top 40 over the last five years are listed below. The average Massey Ratings for 2013-2018 are given, because the historical Massey Ratings are relatively straight forward to find and the rating is numerical rather than a poll. Cal Lutheran, Thousand Oaks, CA: 46 The 2-0-1 Regals tied Hardin Simmons 0-0 on the road. Pacific Lutheran, Tacoma, WA: 31 The Lutes are 2-1-1. Puget Sound, Tacoma, WA: 42 The 1-2-0 Loggers lost at Wheaton 3-0 to open the season and host Trinity (TX) this coming Friday. Pomona Pitzer, Claremont, CA: 39 The 3-0-1 Sagehens tied MIT 0-0 at home and beat Chicago 1-0 and Illinois Tech 3-0 on the road. 5132
@CoachJon Pomona seems to have arranged to play some of the top D3 teams in the last two seasons. They were trounced versus WashU last year and this year they just notched a win against UofChicago which is pretty terrific for them...
I did not see where Swarthmore was ranked in the top 10. The United Soccer Coaches Poll has them ranked at #14 as of August 5th.
Thanks for sharing this! Those 4 West teams have traditionally played the best schedule possible. Not real familiar with Massey but these 3 of the 4 have been in the NCAA tournament in those years mentioned and I believe Pomona got to the final 8 and Cal Lutheran to the final 16. Pomona looks to be off to a really good start. I get the feeling UPS might be down a bit with the late coach change in the last few months.
I'm familiar with Massey and have run tests of his system to compare his women's Division I ratings to the NCAA's RPI ratings and to alternative systems I've developed as modifications to the RPI. In my opinion, Massey's ratings are the best. In parfticular, with reference to the posts here about teams in the west as compared to the east and mid-west, Massey -- at least for Division I -- does a very good job rating all the schools within a single system. Of course, there's probably more "correspondence" for Division I schools (meaning cross-regional games).
Updates on the prediction for the first real poll of the year following the weekend results - WashStl, Messiah, Misericordia and ChrisNewport will all drop out of the T10 but remain in the T25 Hardin Simmons, MIT, Farmingdale and Scranton will fall off the T25.
Here is the page for current Massey ratings. If you are interested to can explore from there. https://www.masseyratings.com/csocw/ncaa-d3/ratings
Got three of the T25 drops right, and 1 of the T10 drops. Really missed on Messiah and CNewport. Go figure how Messiah remains so highly ranked after their loss and Middlebury drops below them without a blemish!?!? https://unitedsoccercoaches.org/rankings/college-rankings/ncaa-diii-women/ For the new appearances, very surprised by NYU ascending to the T25 as they were beaten 3-0 and even more lopsided stat numbers by Hopkins on Sunday. But their ranking adds a FIFTH T25 matchup for Hopkins in their first 6 games. The last of those contests is tomorrow vs #7 TCNJ.
Hopkins at TCNJ - Hopkins finally had a game where it WASNT the stat leader (at least in shots) and the pulled out a 2-1 win at TCNJ. All the other stats (SOG, corners, etc) were pretty tight and reflective of the game I saw. Both teams had huge momentum/possession swings - the Lions owned the first 15 mins, scored a goal on a goalie mistake (again?! See Messiah game) and then momentum swung to the Jays who scored off a corner and controlled the balance of the first half. Most of TCNJs 2nd half threats were from far outside the box with most of their runs being stymied by the speed in Hopkins’ outside backs. Hopkins scored off a set piece that the goalie leapt to block but Hopkins had a nice crash the goal follow up to put the “garbage” back in. At the 75 min mark Hopkins dug in, swapping out 2 forwards for defenders and held on for the win. TCNJ shouldn’t be penalized too much in the rankings, the game could have easily ended in a draw or with their victory. Look for Hopkins to get a 3 to 4 spot boost. This was the last of Hopkins 5 game ranked opponent start of the season. They finished 3-1-1 in that stretch (Lynchburg, Messiah, Stevens, NYU, TCNJ). They get a visit to Rowan next. TCNJ gets Stevens.
It’s a shame that UChicago got “weathered” out in their visit last night at Hope MN. I was looking forward to that game and I believe that UAA would have gotten on the Cadillac Board in that game.
Stevens got snake bit again in a T25 matchup. After playing Messiah tight and losing 1-0, they played a little less tight to Hopkins and squeaked out a 2-2 draw at home. Tonight they dominated most of the game and all of the stats vs another Centennial stalwart, Swarthmore on the road. But they gave up an early goal in the opening minutes and their dominance could not get one past the Swarthmore tender despite several 1v1 looks. The 1-0 loss makes them 0-2-1 against T25 teams with TCNJ on tap for the weekend.
Tough weekend for the defending champ Ephs. First up was a Nescac loss to Wesleyan (2-1), and closed the weekend with a 1goal draw vs Springfield. Neither opponent on the T25.
Interesting I saw the game and looked at the stats...Stevens dominated the first half to some degree but in the second half Swarthmore had the edge. The Stevens forwards were not able to get past the Swarthmore goalie in 2 1v1's.