News: DCUnited Off-Season thread.

Sounds like something he might have learned in England.

I think this version of Ben lives mainly in this forum these days, but we shall see.

 

Mr. Moderater: When does the "Off-Season Thread" merge with the "Pre-Season Thread?"

 

A few post above this one it was stated ...... The offseason thread will be untethered and allowed to drop down the list, use the preseason thread (which is stickied) instead.

Or if you're like you and me ... post in once in a while to keep it at the top of the thread list instead ....

 

bump

 

To stave off Q*bert's doom and gloom for a moment.

Here's the away PPG for the teams that made the MLS playoffs last year: 1.5, 1.29, .94, 1.18, .94, 1, .94, .88, 1.17, .58, .76, .64.

The mean away PPG for a playoff team was .985. The median is .94.

If somehow DC has, say, 18 points after their first 14 games, by virtue of winning the 2 "home" games and scratching out a point per game for the 12 road games, that'll definitely be in last place, but it's not a death knell for their playoff hopes.

 

18 points from 14 games is not a definite for last place. Almost a third of the league (7 out of 22) finished the season with a PPG average below that. I would not be surprised if we're around 15 or 16 points from 14 games at that point and in last place, but it's not guaranteed that'll put us in last place.

 

I'll buy that counter argument.

 

I bumped Q*berts post mainly because of the last paragraph. Many people had complaints about KP but I had no doubt that he wanted DC United to win. With the current FO winning would be nice but it is not all that important,

 

I'd prefer to think of it in terms of potential.

The old adage is, win at home, tie away. If you do that on average, more often than not, you'll win the supporter's shield.

14 games in , with 12 away games and 2 home games, if DC has 18 points, we're on track to win the supporter's shield.

The average team in MLS will do 2/3rds of that. If you tie 2/3rds of your away games and win 2/3rds of your home games, you'll end up with 46 points on the year, which may or may not just get you into the playoffs.

14 games in , with 12 away games(x .66 pts each) and 2 home games ( x. 2 pts each), an average MLS team (the team likely to be a borderline playoff team) should have 12 points.

The worst team in MLS (the team on track to end up last at the end of the year) should have closer to 9 points.

Those are the metrics I'll be looking at after 14 games. Then the summer signing window will change everything, for better or worse.