Umm, what? Surely you realize that those 3 teams represent waaaaaaaaay more than the fee they paid to get into the league. They bring the whole Canadian market to MLS, they bring TV money, they bring Canadian sponsorship money and a lot I am probably forgetting. If MLS has no presence in Canada they are losing way more than 10+35+35 million. Your post shows a serious lack of knowledge of how a pro sports league makes money. Based on all your previous essays I expected more.
I don't disagree at all. For sure there would have to be financial compensation/transaction or whatever the opt-out/buy-out clause is in those team's contracts with the league. CPL initially has no incentives for the 3 clubs to jump. This is a conversation for 2030 when the league reaches 16 teams and starts Division 2. CPL has the potential to start the conversation of having those 3 clubs joining in a decade. Paul Beirne hinting at it is really telling and a shift in the old status quo of never bringing that topic up. It's the right approach to work towards that instead of forcing a move
CPL: "come join CPL where in a year you could be relegated to DII." Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal: "So you want us to leave a guaranteed spot in MLS to join?" I bet that conversation will go real well.
The reality is it's more complicated than this piss take. If and when the CPL becomes established enough to warrant this, you'd need to also consider that (barring a change in MLS) any player contracts would need to be transferred from MLS to the clubs, and in all likelihood - the soon-to-be-erstwhile MLS clubs would ensure that they had lined up transfers/contracts for their first team players and had stopped graduating academy and reserve players to MLS contracts. To me, the extraction process alone is a significant barrier to this ever happening, and in any likelihood would only happen with one club at a time instead of all three en masse.
I'm fully aware of that, I was pointing out how little they initially paid and how much more they could ask in expansion fees compared to back then. In no way shape or form am I implying that are only worth what the expansion fee they paid to get in. This is a bit of an exaggeration, they draw poorly on Canadian TV except the MLS playoffs derby and both MLS cups. They draw from 3 cities, not the whole Canadian market. They add value to the league, no doubt about it but they aren't being followed by the whole county. Nothing inaccurate about saying that MLS would be able to ask for more money then what those 3 clubs paid. How much do MLS really value the Canadian market? That's a fair question to ask, I have yet to see an MLS Canadian office regardless what Garber promised. He also flat out said that he wasn't interested in Canada outside of the 2 teams... That's over 2/3 of the country. My comment about the league not losing sleep over it is a personal observation. Unilke the NHL, MLS have LOTS of markets willing to pay a very steep price to get in the league. I think it's a fair observation.
How much does MLS get paid for the Canadian TV contract? Serious question. How much does MLS make off Canadian company sponsorship? Obviously MLS saw value in moving into the Canadian market. The amount of money the clubs paid to enter isn't even part of the equation at this point. Your post stated that MLS would look at it and say they can get a lot more for those club rights now. That is inaccurate and your post is wrong.
The chances of them getting relegated would be virtually slim to none. There are upsides for them to join as well in a decade Spending in Canadian dollars instead of US dollars More rivalries (Quebec-Montreal, Vancouver - Surrey & Victoria, BC vs Alberta, Toronto-York & Hamilton) More TV viewership, expanding their fanbases, keeping or increasing their attendances More Champions league berth (an upside due to plans to expand the Club World Cup) possibly lower travel costs Possibly building a dynasty More merchandise sales There are upsides. We're just not there yet
No way you can know this. Anyway a chance is still a better chance than none. There is absolutely no way you can know this either. It is just as likely their TV viewership would go down. The league hasn't even kicked a ball and you are predicting increased TV viewership.
Canadian TV network don't disclose their TV deal with MLS. Sponsorship, I don't know Yes there is value to moving in 3 Canadian cities, not the whole Canadian market. They aren't the even the Blue Jays, the NHL and more recently the Raptors who's following across the country is increasing. MLS is still a business, looking at it from that angle is what businesses does. Unlike the NHL, there's a line up of cities wanting in the league and willing to pay a high price. If you remove the fan hat and put the business hat, there's nothing illogical about it
MLS will not look at the fee paid by the 3 canadian teams as any indicator of how much those teams are worth to the league. It is illogical. That would make no sense. Look at the small fee they paid many many years ago or look at the value they bring to the league every year now? You are wrong. The fee they paid will not even come into the minds of MLS if they start talking about replacing these 3 teams. You are right MLS is a business. That is why everything I say above is true.
MLS did not put teams in 3 Canadian markets out of the goodness of their hearts or to try to make the Canadian national team better. They did it as a business decision, because they saw money to make. You say "not the whole Canadian market"...you may be right but they went from no Canadian market to 3 of the most major population centers of Canada. That is worth a lot of money to MLS. They have long forgot and stopped accounting for the small fees those teams paid to enter. I am not saying the 3 teams will never leave MLS. I am saying their value to MLS has absolutely ZERO to do with the fees they paid. I can't believe I am even having to spell that out to someone who seems very intelligent.
I'd be shocked, but TFC aren't strangers to mediocrity after all... So you're speculating that Montreal vs. New England would draw more than Quebec vs. Montreal? Vancouver vs Surrey would do worse than Vancouver vs Real Salt Lake? I'm not convinced that those 3 would draw less by facing Canadian cities constantly than playing teams fans care little about if at all. MLS TV Viewership https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Soccer_on_television#MLS_Cable_Viewership_Average CFL TV Viewership draws at least double that with 1/10 of the population of the US. http://3downnation.com/2017/10/13/cfl-tv-ratings-drop-mirrors-industry-wide-trend/ If CPL gets half those numbers, we're in MLS territory already with 1/10 of the population. Even half of the MLS average would be a win for CPL when looking at the number of teams and population in comparison to the US. It's just the way it is here, rivalries sells here.
You and I don't know what's in those contracts (opt-out / buyout clauses). I already agreed with you that compensations would have to be paid. You and I are talking about 2 different things, you're not wrong either.
I am saying you have no idea what ratings 3 MLS teams would get in the CPL. You absolutely can't state as fact like you did that it will be better. I would be surprised if CPL's marketing budget will be higher than MLS. Just because they would be playing another Canadian team doesn't mean they would get higher ratings. Canadians may very well not embrace this league as DI and still see MLS as superior. It doesn't even exist yet so lets not start saying it will have higher ratings.
You clearly misunderstood me. All I said is that the league could make even more money buy allowing 3 US teams in comparison to what they paid almost a decade ago. There's no denying the added value they bring to the league, that's not the point.
No, you said that MLS would look at the small fees paid by the 3 canadian teams and realize they can get much more now. That is not what a business will do. they will look at how much the 3 teams are worth to MLS right now and see if they think 3 US markets that don't already have a team could contribute the same amount. I find it highly unlikely any 3 remaining US markets could contribute as much as the only 3 canadian markets do.
that is the point. why would they care what the 3 teams paid to join many years ago? Does that mean they can replace LA Galaxy because they didn't pay as much as Orlando to enter the league? They can't "make more money" because they aren't only making money off the expansion fee. That is what your theory is contending.
Let me rephrase that, it's my opinion that they would draw more. Right now, Canadians aren't watching MLS and have little incentives to do so. In CPL, those 3 would be watched from coast to coast, Victoria to St. John's. Correct me if I;m wrong but I just don't buy that Vancouver or Montreal are the biggest draw on US TV during regular season. TFC perhaps and even then... It's not always how much but how well you spend the marketing budget. There's a history/track record of Canadians doing so. CFL (higher TV and attendances than MLS) and NHL (strongest ratings are when Canadian clubs face one another). How about the MLS semi-finals between Montreal and Toronto? Heck, even the Memorial cup draws more than MLS. It's just the way it is here. For that, Canadians would have to be watching MLS to begin with, which they don't outside the main 3 cities.Those soccer fans didn't care about MLS and those teams when CPL didn't exist, they are unlikely to switch to MLS and start caring about them when they are about to get clubs in their own cities.
So now we are comparing Football and Hockey ratings to MLS as examples of why soccer ratings will be better. I give up.
So a second team in NYC wouldn't be worth more overtime than TFC? What about a bid to have a team in Chicago, like downtown Chicago? That's more valuable than Montreal? What about Detroit, San Fransisco, Boston or Phoenix, all much larger than Vancouver? Pretty sure those TV markets would be a huge upside for the league.
I'm talking trends here, not literal comparisons. I used an MLS proper example. The Montreal - Toronto playoff derby has yet to be surpassed and I doubt it will anytime soon in Canada. Seattle was close during the MLS final but I doubt Salt Lake or Colorado beats it. It was 2 Canadian teams facing up in a match heavy in importance. That's what's sells here.
Soooo....Montreal, Vancouver, and Toronto would draw better by NOT playing against Zlatan, Schweinsteiger, Vela, Gio Dos Santos, Messi, Ronaldo, Rooney.....seems a bit of a stretch. Also, I would find it difficult to believe that Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver would be able to sign players of the caliber of Piatti, Drogba, Giovinco, Bradley, Altidore, etc playing in the CPL. Let's see who the first players signed are, and a few balls are kicked before making grand predictions. Also, we need to let the league marinate a few seasons before saying that the three MLS Canadian teams will jump aboard. The three Canadian MLS teams get a ton of value playing in MLS, and in turn they add a lot of value to MLS. It should also be pointed out that there aren't 3 comparable markets without an MLS team in the US that compare to Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. MLS isn't going to want to replace TFC, Vancouver, & Montreal with Louisville, Indianapolis, OKC, etc.
There already are 2 NY area teams. Apparently the league already answered those questions. They obviously thought having a presence an a completely different country was more valuable than the markets you mention.
I agree that this would be a very complex endeavor, no doubt about it. Still, I wouldn't say never. I'm still thinking that it's the end game for the CSA which would be to CPL benefit.
Messi and Ronaldo are in MLS? That's news to me but to answer your question, I doubt it. They aren't drawing more with those guys minus Messi and Ronaldo, not sure Rooney would do it either. Montreal had Drogba and you still had Garber bashing Montreal attendances... Actually not denying that. Piatti was signed at a bargain though so these type of international players could be in CPL, more so than a Giovinco. That's why I always say a decade from now. They are in MLS because the CSA allows it. Neither of us can predict until when it will stay as is.