CPL Viability vs Canadian TV Markets

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Initial B, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    I was contemplating the financial requirements to run the CPL and I keep coming to the conclusion that the league won't be viable unless they can get a TV contract for significant money from a network. I found some 3-year-old data that placed Canadian Markets next to their US counterparts to see how they matched up. These are the top 25 markets in Canada with their NA ranking and equivalent-sized US DMA. Note these are not Census areas, but grouped the way networks would market to advertisers.

    4. Toronto-Hamilton (Philadephia, PA)
    12. Montreal (Phoenix, AZ)
    22. Vancouver-Victoria (Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA)
    43. Kitchener-London (Austin, TX)
    51. Edmonton (Alberquerque-Santa Fe, NM)
    53. Calgary (Jacksonville, FL)
    60. Ottawa-Gatineau (Buffalo), NY
    78. Quebec City (Tuscon-Sierra Vista, AZ)
    87. Winnipeg (Rochester, NY)
    112. East Central Ontario (Evansville, IN)
    122. Halifax (Ft. Wayne, IN)
    128. Saint John-Moncton (Fargo-Valley City, ND)
    137. Sherbrooke (Lafayette, LA)
    143. Sudbury-Timmins-North Bay-Sault Ste Marie (Amarillo, TX)
    147. Barrie (Chico-Redding, CA)
    149. St John's-Cornerbrook (Wausau-Rhinelander, WI)
    171. Saskatoon (Panama City, FL)
    173. Prince George-Kamloops (Terre Haute, IN)
    177. Kelowna (Wheeling-Stuebenville, OH/WV)
    178. Regina-Moose Jaw (Bluefield-Beckley-Oak Hill, WV)
    185. Trois-Rivieres (Idaho Falls-Focatillo, ID)
    191. Saguenay (Yuma-El Centro, AZ/CA)
    203. Rimouski-Matane-Sept Iles (Alexandria, LA)
    220. Thunder Bay (Casper-Riverton, WY)

    So just looking at this list and how it compares to the US, it looks like the CPL will have an uphill climb to get TV networks to look past advertising revenue when negotiating a contract. When MLS had captured 9 of the top 10 US TV Markets and about 30% of the households, they were able to get a $30 million TV contract . The top 10 TV markets in Canada account for 72% of the Canadian TV viewing households. Would it be possible for the CPL to negotiate a $7-8 million TV deal to help offset the financial burdens to the clubs? How would that help make the league more viable long-term?
     
  2. Daniel from Montréal

    Aug 4, 2000
    Montréal
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    But per capita, ratings in Canada are much higher than in US.
     
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  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well let's say Canada's ratings are double the US per capita. Initial B didn't provide populations, but I'm going to use the rankings for US markets he posted to post markets with double that population. Initial B listed 24 markets, not 25 like he said. I'm using Fall 2015 Nielsen TV market populations. The number in parenthesis is the number from Initial B.

    2. Toronto-Hamilton (Los Angeles, CA) (4)
    3. Montreal (Chicago, IL) (12)
    8. Vancouver-Victoria (Atlanta, GA) (22)
    17. Kitchener-London (San Diego, CA) (43)
    23. Edmonton (Portland, OR) (51)
    24. Calgary (Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC and SC) (53)
    29. Ottawa-Gatineau (Salt Lake City-Ogden-Provo, UT) (60)
    46. Quebec City (Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point, NC) (78)
    50. Winnipeg (Oklahoma City, OK) (87)
    61. East Central Ontario (Birmingham, AL) (112)
    63. Halifax (Honolulu, HI) (122)
    65. Saint John-Moncton (Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY) (128)
    73. Sherbrooke (Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE) (137)
    76. Sudbury-Timmins-North Bay-Sault Ste Marie (Sarasota-Bradenton, FL) (143)
    77. Barrie (Bakersfield, CA) (147)
    77. St John's-Cornerbrook (Bakersfield, CA) (149) (two Canadian markets are close enough to correspond to the same US market)
    103. Saskatoon (Lexington-Fayette, KY) (171)
    105. Prince George-Kamloops (Visalia-Tulare-Hanford, CA) (173)
    108. Kelowna (Corpus Christi, TX) (177)
    111. Regina-Moose Jaw (York, PA) (178)
    119. Trois-Rivieres (Oxnard-Ventura, CA) (185)
    124. Saguenay (Bridgeport, CT) (191)
    129. Rimouski-Matane-Sept Iles (Fayetteville, NC) (203)
    141. Thunder Bay (Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX) (220)

    The NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL rarely have teams outside the top forty markets. Doubling the populations increases Canada from having 3 to 7 markets that would be in the top forty in the US.
     
  4. Daniel from Montréal

    Aug 4, 2000
    Montréal
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    It sucks for the CPL that the Big 3 aren't there. Because the numbers per-capita are actually 10x (ie more viewers in absolute numbers for 2016 all-Canadian Eastern Final and MLS Cup than for the equivalents in the US).
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is it fair to just go by a few playoff games? If I multiplied the populations by 10 instead of 2, all 24 markets listed by Initial B would be bigger than the 40th biggest US market. 17 Canadian markets would be bigger than the 20th biggest US market.
     
  6. Paulo_PT

    Paulo_PT Member

    SL Benfica
    Portugal
    Sep 17, 2017
    CanPL can't work in the same level as MLS. It's a mistake that will lead to CanPL failure!
     
  7. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    4. Toronto-Hamilton (Philadephia, PA)
    12. Montreal (Phoenix, AZ)
    22. Vancouver-Victoria (Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA)

    And there in lies the huge problem for the CPL. Do you go head to head with MLS teams in their own market or do you not go into the 3 largest markets? I see neither as a viable long term plan.

    This will be D3 level soccer being passed off as Premier. Now I'm okay with D3 level because you have to start somewhere but the casual fans will be bored and stay away in droves. If they don't have TV revenue and they don't own the stadium for auxiliary revenue I don't know how long it will last.

    The idea that more pro jobs will help more players develop is valid but if a player can't take and hold a starting role at the MLS level what good will they be to our national team?
     
  8. Initial B

    Initial B Member

    Jan 29, 2014
    Club:
    Ottawa Fury
    I'm also a Fury supporter and we had lots of support when Marc dos Santos was coach and they played in NASL. When Paul Dalglish took over with a less-entertaining brand of soccer (to put it nicely), numbers went down. With the new coach this year we'll see how the Fury will do, but I expect them to pull in the 6000+ range in attendance this year for Div2 level soccer. We know that the CPL is going to have a higher salary range than Div2 leagues (otherwise the Fury wouldn't have blanched when they saw the expected team salaries), so I would expect attendance to increase if the Fury switch leagues.

    Also, the Toronto-Hamilton TV market includes Mississauga and York Region, both of which have expressed interest in the CPL. Surrey is a part of the Vancouver-Victoria TV market, so the only major market being left out is Montreal (unless they get a team in Laval or Longueuil).
     
  9. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    CPL isn't trying to be MLS. It's more European and a fairer comparison would be Scandinavian leagues who also play in the summer, love hockey to death, similar weather, less population, lower GDP and can still produce very capable Europa quality teams, sometimes champions league

    *no I'm not implying CPL will have champions league or Europa quality teams however just like those league, improvement and growth will follow

    Both. MLS teams have had medium to low penetration into their immediate suburb. Saputo and even Manning acknowledge that they need to do better outside of their cities.

    CPL putting teams in the immediate suburbs (Surrey, Vaughan) and grow the product to make it successful is lower risk and possibility of higher gain long term. As for Montreal, all they need is a Quebec City team to spark the interest in CPL.

    The long term goal (last 3 expansion spots out of 16) are expected to be Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver once the league is ready. By waiting last for those 3, you also maximize the expansion fee you can ask for those club instead of doing this now.

    It's sanctiones as Division 1. You're over thinking it. Also they will have higher budgets than D2.

    MLS being the measuring stick is an odd way at looking at the bigger picture. So those teams that beat or held the USMNT to draws have lots of players from leagues "deemed lower than MLS" yet Panama, Honduras and Costa Rica can go to the world cup and in some cases have better teams.

    That logic has been proven wrong so many times
     
  10. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    If they wait to the end then it probably won't happen. Sorry but without those 3 markets you have squat for TV. This becomes a solely gate driven league with estimated attendance of 5,000.

    I don't care what it is sanctioned as by the CSA. It is the product on the field that will determine its level. We have no idea what the budget for players will be. Saying it will be higher than D2 based on what?

    Not odd at all. It is the top level of soccer in our country and will be even if/when CPL gets going. If a player can't take and hold a starting job at the top level available in his country then he will be a utility player at best.

    It has never been proven wrong. You are making apples to frisbee comparisons. South of the Rio Grande things are drastically different. The comparison to the Scandinavian leagues is much more appropriate to our situation.

    If/when the CPL starts it will help but don't think it will be the cure all that a lot of people claim. By and large it will be a place for those players who can't make it at the MLS level.
     
  11. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I can't speak for others, but that's basically what I was expecting it to be.
     
  12. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Or they wait for someone to throw enough money at them to expand there. Technically, Surrey and Victoria tap into that TV market while Hamilton, York Region and Waterloo Region tap into the GTA TV market.

    Of course, without those 3 cities, you can't maximize your potential but, it doesn't mean they get squat. 2/3 of Canada does not live within the 3 Metro areas and they still plan to put teams in the metro, not the city proper at first.

    It's important I think to point out that nuance.

    Early estimates are placing the average salary in the 55k-75k range. Earlier reports said that the minimum salary would be close to the CFL which is around 54K. That's several times what USL guys are earning. It's not even close actually.

    So Panama, Costa Rica qualifying to the WC and Honduras finishing 4th in the HEX, all with lesser leagues according to most, was a figment of my imagination?

    Speaking of Scandinavian leagues, Denmark and Sweden are going to the world cup. Their leagues have attendances in the range of what CPL aim to achieve, between 6k to 10k. Their domestically aren't higher than Serie A or Eredivisie yet, their national teams are going to the world cup ahead of Italy and Netherlands. Sure, their players ended up in higher leagues, but for most of the cases started in their domestic leagues.

    MLS is NOT a Canadian League. We have 3 teams and that's it and that should never be enough or substituted as our domestic league. That model doesn't work, we haven't produce the results to prove that it works. That's insufficient to hope to achieve what these nations have done. So at the end of the day, I really don't care about the pointless MLS vs CPL comparison, because that's not the point.

    CPL is not expected to do that in year 1, the expectation is that over time it will as the league grows, budget grows, better internationals joins the league while developing and given opportunities to young players who have nowhere else to go pass university.

    I don't get why anyone would be against that and fall back to the pointless comparison with MLS instead of celebrating that this is what we're building.

    Who also aren't given the opportunity to make it at that level. You have to look at it that way as well.
     
  13. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    #13 tm13, Jan 31, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2018
    Oh there have been lots of opportunity given in V's Cup action and in MLS not to mention training with the first team daily but few have stepped up and delivered when they got on the field for the first team. Opportunity has been given. Playing time is never given, it is taken. Taken by the player most likely to help his coach keep his job.

    Having a domestic league will be helpful addition but don't expect too much from it. It will be home to players who are mostly D2 or D3 level. The CPL will not be MLS level in our lifetimes. Will it help? Yes of course. Will it be the saviour of Canadian soccer? No, that is expecting way too much. Could it have the effect the Panama league had? Possible but as I've said, south of the Rio Grande is a totally different story.
     
  14. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Opportunities in the V Cup? The CSA ended up having to force them to start Canadians (the 3 MLS Canadian team)

    Opportunities were made available but it's insufficient. Canada, like every other nations needs it's own league.
     
  15. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    Well we agree on that much :)
     
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  16. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I heard on the radio that the only nation to ever qualify for a World Cup without a domestic league is Iceland. Hoping that Canada would improve without it's league was always a tall order.

    I wrote this before both Floro said it best before being fire

    Paraphrasing:
    The problem with Canada is not talent. It's not playing enough minutes at club level at a higher level. Players aren't used to play 90 minutes of football and deal with the pressure of keeping the ball and pushing to recover the ball at a high level consistently. Also, I can't teach set pieces, free kicks and corners during the national team practice. That should be mastered at the club level.

    CPL helps with that
     
  17. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    What was considered our domestic league in 1986?
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Every member of UEFA except for Liechtenstein has a domestic league. I'm not saying the leagues are professional, but they exist. Iceland's league is ranked 35th out of 55 in UEFA.
     
  19. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    You're right, radio guy was wrong. I wouldn't count NASL as our league and CSL started a year after in 1987.
     
  20. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    NASL. Although it was done like dinner by then it had been around since the late 60's and provided the opportunity for playing time to a lot of players.
     
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  21. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Could NASL be considered a domestic league though?
     
  22. tm13

    tm13 Member

    Jan 15, 2008
    Rocky Mountains
    Yes. It was for both the USA and Canada. 6 different Canadian teams played in it over the years in 5 different cities.
     
  23. Garry Grams

    Garry Grams New Member

    Cavalry FC
    Canada
    Feb 20, 2019
    Actually, if the CPL teams had a million dollars each to help offset costs, right now that would probably be a significant financial boost for them.
     
  24. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    With this new media deal, seems like this is what they will be getting, even more at first.

    The goal shouldn't be to offset costs and use it to break even, it should give then the fiscal space to further invest in academies, infrastructure and talents.
     
  25. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    I disagree. The league's first goal is to prove viability. Walk first, then run.
     
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