CPL Predictions 2025

Discussion in 'Canada' started by Kingston, Feb 16, 2019.

  1. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    While not all the details have yet been released, we already have quite a bit of information on the CPL as its inaugural season approaches.

    I believe it will take between five and ten years for this new league to show that it is here to stay and to become established. Since there are seven founding teams and since that would take us to the year before Canada co-hosts the World Cup, let's look ahead seven years.

    Imagine it is spring, 2025 and the CPL is about to kick off season seven. What is your prediction for the state of the league? I'm not so much interested in the on-field stuff as I am the off-field stuff. Number of teams, attendance, etc.

    Since it will obviously be difficult to make this type of prediction, feel free to include what you feel to be pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic scenarios.
     
  2. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    Here's mine:

    Pessimistic (50% chance of happening)

    Wikipedia: The CPL was a professional Canadian soccer league. Although it enjoyed success in some markets, a number of CPL teams in smaller cities were unable to attract enough fans to be financially successful. Their failure left an insufficient number of teams for a viable league. Four former CPL teams now play in the American-based USL. Several current Canadian national team players got their start in the CPL.

    Realistic (40%)

    Following the off season sale of the Victoria team to new owners and the contraction of the York 9, the CPL will kick off its seventh season tomorrow with eight teams. Average attendance is over 5000 in most markets so resources should exist to for teams to meet the $1.5 million salary cap. Ottawa and Hamilton appear set to lead the way in attendance again this year while Winnipeg will try to repeat as champions. Edmonton and Calgary look forward to renewing hostilities. The nascent rivalry between Halifax and Quebec should also be interesting to watch, especially as they are each other’s closest geographic rivals following the shuttering of the Laval franchise two seasons ago.

    Optimistic (10%)

    Season seven starts tomorrow with a record twelve CPL teams. Although it didn’t come quickly enough to save Saskatoon, the revenue sharing agreement put in place over the off season should shore up finances in Victoria, London, Kitchener, and Halifax. Edmonton and Calgary will both enjoy their expanded stadia while Laval and York are now finally settled in permanent homes following tortuous stadium negotiations. This should help push league wide average attendance over 7500, although with significant differences between the highest and lowest teams. Hamilton, Ottawa, Quebec, and Halifax have all made designated player announcements that allow them to each secure one high value Canadian whose salary will only count $250k against the $2.5 million salary cap. This will also be the first year for farm teams for Edmonton, Calgary, and Winnipeg in the new Prairie D3 league. A number of CPL players will be missing for national team duty at times during the season as Canada looks to secure its qualification for next year’s World Cup. Excitement is also high to see if this will finally be the year a CPL team wins the Canadian Championship following Ottawa’s heartbreaking shootout loss to TFC in the final last year.
     
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  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Won't you not have to qualify as tri-host? In the general, the CPL would have to decide if and when to break for qualifiers, the World Cup, and the Gold Cup.
     
  4. Polygong

    Polygong Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 8, 2007
    Toronto
    Club:
    Toronto FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    This has not yet been decided, but let's be honest here, Canada and Mexico are just a side show in this tournament, we're each hosting 10 group stage matches and that is it.

    I for one would prefer that Canada has to qualify. We need as many real competitive matches as is possible.
     
  5. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    With the new media deal that was announced, the league will
    • Still be operating
    • Closing the CPL 1.0 era and prepping for CPL 2.0 post 2026 (Top 5 CONCACAF League)
    • 16 clubs are in the league (objective was by 2026)
    • Academies being setup playing in D3 leagues
    • Prepping for Women CPL after the 2023 Women's World Cup (Jordyn Huitema is the goal as the face of the league)
    • Acquisition of PLSQ
    • Setting up a Western D3 league with current PDL teams as it's foundation
    • Monopolization of the D3 tier and setting it up as the CHL leading up to 2026 with a "Memorial Cup"
    • A CPL player will have lockdown a spot on the staring XI of the national team (defense or keeper)
    • A CPL team will have qualify to CCL via Concacaf league
    • A CPL team will win the V Cup and go to CCL
    • League will be accepting bids for D2 to launch Spring 2027 after the World Cup and establish Pro/Rel
     
  6. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    The new media deal (assuming it is actually $20 million per season in the fine print) is a massive shot in the arm. It is enough for me to revise my odds of the league making it from 50% to 70%.

    I'm not sure exactly how we measure this but, yes, top five in CONCACAF is possible.

    Teams with national level travel, whether D1 or D2, are going to need to draw 5000 or 6000 per game. In order to have D2 (assuming a 16 team D1) there need to be at least 24 teams. I mean, we aren't going to have a two team D2, right?

    Personally, I don't see even 16 viable markets at the 5000 to 6000 attendance level. I really don't see 24 but I'd be interested in hearing your take on it.

    I definitely see an amalgamating of the D3 leagues under one CHL-type umbrella.

    By 2025 I'm not sure if we see a complete western D3 or just a BC D3 (perhaps based on the PCSL). Even long term travel might make it more practical to keep BC separate from the prairie provinces.

    As for academies, I can definitely see it. I could also see some sort of CPL D3 draft system, however. That way CPL teams could avoid the cost/risk of running their own D3 team but the CPL could still ensure good transfer of players up from D3 at a league level.

    Possibly, although I'm thinking someone with a locked down starting spot is more likely to be a CPL graduate. I do see CPL players on the roster, though.

    Yes and no. :)
     
  7. Victor Smitty

    Victor Smitty New Member

    Cavalry FC
    Canada
    Feb 23, 2019
    I think if the league ever gets to 14 teams and lasts at least 10 years, and gets to 6000 + attendance by year 3, it should be a success. I don't believe it will ever have enough teams for promotion and relegation. Any more teams than that is pure fantasy. We don't even have enough cities over 400 000 to sustain more teams.
     
  8. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    CPL said the minimum was around 200k. Regina isn't 400k but would be perfect for a team, besides, they sell out their 33k stadiums for CFL
     
  9. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    They've also said they need about 6000 fans per game to survive.

    I've never seen them explain how they expect to regularly get 6000 fans from areas with populations of 200 000.

    There will be positive outliers (like the Roughriders in Regina) but you can't run a league based on outliers. A quick comparison of Canadian sports teams' attendances compared to metro populations shows very few examples of teams getting that sort of support.
     
  10. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    It's a challenge, a big one but far from impossible.

    How? Just look how the current teams are doing their marketing which is a stark contrast to our MLS teams approach. It's working from the league's end.

    It will be up to ownership to do the rest. Many of the targeted markets have no professional sports, that's a big advantage to build upon.
     
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  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #11 EvanJ, Feb 25, 2019
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2019
    The last sentence is a good point. There are NCAA Football teams that average over 50,000 in small cities without professional teams. In terms of marketing the CPL in small cities, some NCAA teams could be models. Outside of sports, what are the biggest tourist attractions and special events in Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Regina, New Brunswick, and anywhere else the CPL has a club or may expand to that does not have MLS or USL? Can going to the CPL become something that people like doing together?
     
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  12. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I want to say that I edited my post after Robert Borden repped it.
     
  13. Kingston

    Kingston Member+

    Oct 6, 2005
    I'm just wondering, since you are one of the most hopeful people about the prospects of the CPL, what your pessimistic prediction would be?
     
  14. Victor Smitty

    Victor Smitty New Member

    Cavalry FC
    Canada
    Feb 23, 2019
    Yeah, they probably come from a good 100 km radius around Regina, which raises the available population. Also, I think smaller cities have a higher rate of game attendance vs local population. It would be great to see the CPL can thrive in cities under 300 000.
     

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