Copa Libertadores 2019

Discussion in 'Copa Libertadores / Sudamericana' started by Century's Best, Dec 19, 2018.

  1. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Palmeiras and Gremio have history ... when Scolari coached Gremio back in the 90s. They beat us 5 x 0 1st leg and we almost came back with a 5 x 1 win at home. Palmeiras x Flamengo SF would be lit too.
     
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  2. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    Grêmio will probably do it. Not sure if Internacional will get past Flamengo, though... for all the previous chokes by them, Jorge Jesus seems to know what he's doing and with Filipe Luís and Rafinha on the roster, this is probably one of the best Flamengo sides in a while. May not be enough to help them win it all, but Internacional will have a lot of work.
     
  3. locoxriver

    locoxriver Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 22, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Don’t forget Gabriel Barbosa, a luxury for a SA side to have in their squad. Without him they wouldn’t have gotten past a weak Emelec
     
  4. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    Maybe, maybe not. Without him would anyone else have stepped up? We'll never know. But Flamengo did what it had to do.
     
  5. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    I realize going to Ecuador is always difficult, but I think the chance of a superclasico semifinal is very high. And there would be so much at stake, especially after what happened last year.

    Looking at at the other side, all Brazilian teams left are tough, obviously, but for Boca - and also for River, I think the teams from Porto Alegre would be the toughest challenge. Both Inter and Gremio look solid.
     
  6. argentine soccer fan

    Staff Member

    Jan 18, 2001
    San Francisco Bay Area
    Club:
    CA Boca Juniors
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    C9B27956-DE6D-46A8-8203-28A7684D67AF.jpeg
    Palmeiras is the betting favorite to win la copa, followed by Boca, River and Inter.
     
  7. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Wish I was that confident .
     
  8. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Boca 2 x 0 away are basically through to the SF.
     
  9. SupaMario

    SupaMario Member+

    Aug 31, 2009
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA Tigre
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Got a good laugh from this.

     
  10. locoxriver

    locoxriver Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 22, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Argentine-Brazilian final guaranteed...

    Interesting how 3 of the semifinalists of the last edition are once again in the final four this year (River, Gremio, Boca).

    Both River and Gremio assert their powerhouse status in South America by making it to their 3rd consecutive Libertadores semifinals
     
  11. chaski

    chaski Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 20, 2000
    Itchycoo Park
    Club:
    Lisburn Distillery FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Faroe Islands
  12. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    At some point CONMEBOL did do away with a peculiar rule it created through which it would pair up same-country teams in the semifinals to avoid same-country finals (if I'm not mistaken). I agree with this - let the teams face whomever they must. I only wish they would also do away with the draw for the round of 16. Ranking teams from 1 to 16 based on group stage performance worked just fine for decades.

    Not to mention that Grêmio and CARP are the two last winners. Boca last year's runner-up.

    Your team has had a great run since 2014, and with 2015 and 2018, it's had an unforgettable period. If your team wins it in 2019, it's a golden age.

    As for Grêmio, you may not be aware of certain specifics, but last week's come-from-behind victory vs. Palmeiras was significant for a few reasons. Before last week, Grêmio's last win vs. Palmeiras in the city of São Paulo occurred 11 years ago. Since then, Grêmio lost six times and drew five matches at Palmeiras. Add to that the excellent defensive solidity Palmeiras showed in the first match, and many thought Grêmio was done. But Grêmio came through - it showed it is a very copeiro team.

    The question that always remains though is how long these two teams will keep up their form as contenders. No team stays this competitive endlessly; even with prize money that can bring in reinforcements, some parts wear out (including managers who at one point or another leave). Gallardo had been rumored to take over your NT and Renato Portaluppi is seen by some as a logical replacement for Tite (although Tite's job is safe for now because he led Brazil to continental glory this year). If one of these two clubs wins this year's Libertadores and either NT duty or an irresistible offer from a top UEFA team arrives, will the winning manager resist?
     
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  13. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    A statistical comparison of 2019’s four semifinalists presents a picture that is quite distinct between the Brazilian and Argentine teams, both in a semifinalist vs. semifinalist comparison as well as in a country vs. country comparison.

    Bringing up some of 2018’s numbers will also add context as 3 of 4 of this year’s semifinalists also reached the final four last year.

    In 2018, River Plate and Palmeiras had the best defense of the four semifinalists from the group stage to the return leg of the quarterfinals, having allowed 4 goals during 10 matches. Grêmio came very close at 5 goals allowed and Boca came last with 7 allowed.

    In 2019, the three 2018 semifinalists who made this far again have slightly worse numbers – and they are tied at 6 goals allowed from the group stage to the return leg of the quarterfinals.

    However, a closer look shows that Boca’s defense has improved. It allowed all those 6 goals in the group stage, but neither Athletico Paranaense nor Liga de Quito managed to score.

    River Plate has also been quite good defensively. It allowed 5 goals in the group stage, and had a clean sheet for three consecutive games before Cerro Porteño scored in the return leg of their quarterfinal matchup.

    Grêmio allowed 4 goals in the group stage (vs. 2 last year), had two clean sheets vs. Libertad in the round of 16, but Palmeiras scored once in each quarterfinal match.

    Flamengo, who boasts Jorge Jesus as its manager, likewise allowed 5 goals in the group stage, allowed 2 vs. Emelec in the round of 16, and 1 vs. Internacional in the quarterfinals.

    The GA-GS comparison is similar for all 4 semifinalists in the entire tournament:

    Boca: 17 scored, 6 allowed
    River: 13 scored, 6 allowed
    Grêmio: 16 scored, 6 allowed
    Flamengo: 16 scored, 8 allowed

    This year, however, I decided to incorporate league play to gauge how solid the semifinalists have done in domestic play. I picked the 3rd week of July as a starting point because the Argentine league kicked off then, while the Campeonato Brasileiro has two turnos (first round of 18, second round of 18) was already underway. Interestingly enough, during the same time period that Argentina had 8 rounds of play, Brazil had 11, from the first turno to the second.

    During these stretches of home competition, Grêmio and Flamengo have nearly identical results:

    Grêmio: 24 scored, 11 allowed
    Flamengo: 26 scored, 10 allowed

    If we merge Libertadores R16 and quarterfinal numbers to these (given that the R16 was in mid-late July, at around the same time I begin to count league play statistics), Grêmio and Flamengo are dead even at 31 goals scored and 13 allowed (11 league games, 4 Libertadores games).

    Furthermore, Grêmio and Flamengo met on the 14th round of the Campeonato Brasileiro, with Flamengo winning 3-1.

    Crossing the border, there’s a greater contrast. River presents a far better offense than Boca during 8 Superliga matches (17 vs. 9), but Boca is decidedly better defensively, as it allowed 1 goal in 8 matches vs. River’s 5 goals allowed in the same 8 matches.

    Boca has scored either 1 or 2 goals on every victory during this 8-match streak, and one of the two games which ended 0-0 was a match vs. River.

    River lost two matches during this period, both by 1 goal (0-1 and 1-2), but it also boasts a 4-0 win and a 6-1 win.

    If we merge Libertadores R16 and quarterfinal numbers to these, River Plate has 20 goals scored and 6 allowed, while Boca has 15 goals scored and again, only 1 allowed – an impressive streak of 12 unbeaten games.

    However, as we all know, domestic league play does not always translate into cup successes, and anything can happen during 90 minutes. Let’s hope this year lacks last year’s shenanigans of coaches walking into locker rooms and fans attacking players’ vehicles.

    I close this post by listing the last 5 matches for the 4 semifinalists, all league play results:

    Grêmio: WWWWD (16 goals scored, 2 allowed)
    Flamengo: WWWWW (12 goals scored, 2 allowed)
    Boca: WWWDW (5 goals scored, 1 allowed)
    River: WLWDL (7 goals scored, 3 allowed)
     

    Attached Files:

  14. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    Rainy weather in buenos aires today, Pratto injured, Boca playing with only 1 attacker, I smell a 0-0...
     
  15. Joe Martelo

    Joe Martelo Member

    Portugal
    Sep 30, 2019
    Jorge Jesus is a good coach. Portuguese managers do very well these days because their tactical approach and preparation is quite advanced. However, Jorge Jesus is respected by everyone because his teams tend to take a positive approach.

    Flamengo got an away draw 1-1 against Gremio. Could they go all the way?
     
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  16. unclesox

    unclesox BigSoccer Supporter

    Mar 8, 2003
    209, California
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Wow! Had no idea Jorge Jesus went to South America! :cool:
     
  17. Joe Martelo

    Joe Martelo Member

    Portugal
    Sep 30, 2019
    Question - are Brasil fans happy with Jorge Jesus? I have a feeling the non flamengo fans hate him .
     
  18. MIGkiller

    MIGkiller Member

    Flamengo
    Brazil
    May 9, 2003
    Rio de Janeiro
    Club:
    Flamengo Rio Janeiro
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    We love Jorge Jesus
     
  19. locoxriver

    locoxriver Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 22, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    What's up with the Brazilian federation pushing to get rid of the away goal rule in future Libertadores competitions?

    In my opinion the rule adds entertainment value to the game, inviting teams to be offensive and seek the back of the net rather than settling for a 0-0 draw away.

    Don't understand the logic behind the CBF's pressure towards CONMEBOL
     
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  20. Century's Best

    Century's Best Member+

    Jul 29, 2003
    USA
    From what I gather in the Brazilian sports press, Jorge Jesus is being treated as a maverick and a much-needed infusion of foreign football management whose success in the Campeonato Brasileiro (with 64 points, Flamengo is atop the league table by 10 points vs. 2nd-place Palmeiras) is proof of his quality. There are some who have even called him to replace Tite as Brazil NT manager.

    Flamengo does have an extremely solid roster; had Jorge Jesus taken over a team with a much more modest roster, Flamengo would likely not be the top team in Brazil at the moment. But results speak for themselves.
     
  21. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    I have mixed feelings about the away goal rule. It's probably a net positive even though I think many teams still go out to bunker on away fixtures. What bothers me is when sometimes a goal in the 2nd fixture, sometimes early in the game, basically kills the tie and cuts most excitement out.
     
  22. locoxriver

    locoxriver Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 22, 2005
    Los Angeles
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina


    This was disgraceful. What a shameless performance from the corrupt Wilton Sampaio.

    The video above should serve as enough evidence to ban him from reffing future Libertadores matches, and it doesn’t even show of the biggest errors he committed during the game.

    One thing is making a mistake or two, but when you literally make up at least 15 fouls for one side you cannot hide your intentions. Shame, shame
     
  23. celito

    celito Member+

    Palmeiras
    Brazil
    Feb 28, 2005
    USA
    Club:
    Palmeiras Sao Paulo
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Final has been moved to Peru.
     
  24. SiempreCrema

    SiempreCrema Moderator
    Staff Member

    Deportivo Independiente Miraflores
    Peru
    Feb 4, 2015
    Club:
    Universitario de Deportes
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    And it's in the joke that is the Estadio Monumental, cos the Nacional has been rented for a bloody reggaeton concert...
     
  25. chaski

    chaski Moderator
    Staff Member

    Mar 20, 2000
    Itchycoo Park
    Club:
    Lisburn Distillery FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Faroe Islands

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