Getting back to the topic...I think the Copa America Centenario was great... and I'm looking forward to the next edition... in 2116.
The Olympics didn't dampen the apeal for the Euro or the Centenario. And few true footballing nations have ever placed a whole lot of emphasis on the Olympic football tournament outside of Brazil's unique set of circumstances following the manner they exited the 2014 WC, and being the hosts of both events. I doubt Brazil chooses the Olympics over a Copa America in this fashion ever again.
Unless you were living in Europe or focused on the Euro, it was still a pretty big deal. Technically it wasn't a Copa America, but it was still counted as a major tournament equivalent to a Copa America so most ppl I conversed with or observed still were serious about winning it. And many viewed it on television outside of the US.
Sponsors spend a lot of mnoney on Olympics. It's better to play the Copa América in non-Olympic, non-World Cup years.
Did anything negative (for those companies) happen last year with Centenario, Euro and Olympics being played at the same time, though?
While I agree the points that you lay out, I don't believe that there is such thing as impossible when dealing with human variables. For example I believe that there is one way by which a merger or semi-reallignment of sorts might be forced upon the confederation and that would be if Mexico were to unilaterally decide to move. Now this would have many caveats. The FMF would have to believe that by doing so they would also at the very least force the USSF to almost immediately follow suit in order to preserve their financial future in the sport. CONMEBOL can provide a lot of upside, but the biggest reason that Mexico has never pressed on past threats to try to exit the confederation (despite all competitive advantages in CONMBEBOL) is because their relationship with the USSF, SUM, and the Mexican-American population in US markets is far too lucrative to exchange for what they may get as a member of CONMEBOL. As with Australia when they left Oceania, FIFA would probably require that CONCACAF ratify the move but few believed that this was the primary sticking point so much as Mexico itself simply trying to assure it's ability to set it's own schedule in North and South American competitions. However, hypothetically, should Mexico move it would almost certainly put the US in an uncomfortable position of either continuing their existing relationship with Mexico and aiding them in having their cake and eating it too in order to maintain the financial boost that Mexico provides or jumping ship themselves which would pass the choice down the line. Financial considerations would then have to be weighed against competitive ones. It's not a clear-cut scenario, but I don't think that it's completely impossible, only highly improbable. In addition, I think that you may underestimate how many possible scenarios may arise from the expansion of the World Cup that may have been unthinkable prior to it. It reminds me alot of the unintended circumstances that NCAA football incurred when they finally created a playoff system which led to rampant realignment that had previously been unforeseen. I'm not saying that this is a thing that I would wager money on. Good money is still against it unless it actually happens, but as we approach 2026, we may be surprised by some of the developments that come of it. It may not even happen in CONCACAF or CONMEBOL but in AFC or CAF. I wouldn't necessarily say that all bets are off, but it's interesting that almost immediately after the 48 team WC was ratified, we immediately hear FIFA for the first time come out in support of a CONMEBOL-CONCACAF merger, CFU rumors of a CONCACAF-xit, and CONMEBOL realigning it's own tournament and possibly basing it in the US for the second time in four years. These are not things to be overlooked. However, the combined tournament play and increased integration offers CONCACAF and CONMEBOL the means of having an effective merger without actually having to go through the act. They get the benefits without any mutual risk, excepting for the damage done to CONMEBOL's own traditions. I agree that the reasons for this to remain unlikely still exist, however to overlook how the dynamic of football has already been shaken by the restructuring of the WC and how that might affect those possibilities going forward is somewhat dismissive of factors that would at least make the men in suits who have financial considerations take some pause before doing what we as fans would immediately assume that they would do. If they saw a means to mitigate their risk while maximizing their profits, they'll go with money every time. A 48 team WC gives FIFA the opportunity to mitigate their risks for them if they are truly in favor of some type of merger or realignment. They have a bigger cake to offer. However, the spots are set in stone for 2026, but this doesn't mean that, should an interconfederational playoff emerge, some favors or sweeteners cannot be offered to make the smaller members of both confederations feel more secure. With all this said, I'm merely speculating, and as nothing that we say here actually affects or changes what happens in RL, then I don't see the harm for any one of us proposing why or how what we each want or don't want may or may not work and why. So while I understand where you're coming from, recent development offer a slight (though not significant) move in the direction that I hope for, and I'm going to talk about why. It makes no sense to even engage in the ramifications of this current development if this is sort of speculation is rendered off-limit in any way, since it's a part of that discussion because it's been made such at least by the media.
If the event brings in more than it costs, then it may be a value-added cost. Copa America is worth more to CONCACAF than Gold Cup, but abandoning it would abandon the development of CONCACAF's lower rung teams. However the USSF may begin to accept more invitations to Copa America in the future. CONMEBOL may increase the number of invitees in the future. Who knows what the future may bring. Only the heads of the confederations know their plans and how they are affected by WC expansion. I think it will be interesting to keep an ear to the ground for now, but we may not truly see the real ramifications until around 2020 as the 2026 competition grows close and the 2020 Copa is played, whether in the US as rumored/planned or elsewhere. Any last minute posturing or deal-making will occur around that time if it happens at all. Right now we're still too far out for anyone to commit to any type of long-term strategy going forward if the expansion truly has changed the dynamic for anyone on this hemisphere. Perhaps nothing does change by 2026. But there is nearly a decade for anything to be considered. Maybe even things that none of us have yet imagined.
Above an beyond any speculation about mergers and permanent CONCACAF-CONMEBOL tournaments, could this at the very least prompt more involvement on the part of the USSF in CONMEBOL competitions. Many South Americans have stated that the USSF often receives the same invite extended to Mexico to South American tournaments. The standing 2 invitees to the Copa America as currently comprised could often be filled by the US in addition to Mexico and CONMEBOL would likely look no further for their invitees. What would prompt the USSF to emulate Mexico and increase their activity in Copa America or even Libertadores?
Mexico making a unilateral decision to join CONMEBOL wouldn't force anything on the rest of the confederation. It might encourage consideration of a migration by the USA, but the other 39 nations in CONCACAF won't be going anywhere. Why? 1. It isn't in their competitive interest to do so. 2. CONMEBOL does not want them. For a nation like Mexico, a move might be in line with their competitive interests and CONMEBOL would have more to gain from welcoming them, so the odds of that kind of move happening are at least greater than non-existant. The odds of Canada, Central America, and the Caribbean following along are so close to zero as to be rendered just about non-existent (the odds of the USA following Mexico are only moderately greater). The Caribbeans will end up in their own OFC-style confederation before they agree to join CONMECAF. You and I both know this, so there is no need to pretend otherwise. If you don't like the term "impossible", then call it improbable. Either way, it isn't happening. The only re-alignment scenarios with a greater than non-existent chance of coming to pass are: 1. Unilateral move by Mexico to CONMEBOL 2. USA following Mexico to CONMEBOL (or going jointly with them - I doubt Mexico goes without this) 3. A partial merger/re-alignment that includes as part of the process the creation of a separate confederation for the Caribbean nations and the Central Americans (plus Canada). 4. A full merger that includes as part of its process some sort of structured qualifying that guarantees at least one Caribbean and one Central American team get through every single cycle. Those are the only solutions that are politically feasible enough to get any traction. They're still improbable, but much further away from zero odds of getting somewhere. Anything beyond that is a non-starter. I don't think I do. I've already acknowledged above (and earlier, in this thread and elsewhere) that expansion creates substantial opportunity for realignment, i.e. the facilitation of new confederations (ex: CFU confed). Such re-alignment could even make a merger more likely (since it would remove most of the primary opposition), and I have also acknowledged this. I expect some surprises. I'm virtually certain that a full merger between CONCACAF and CONMEBOL (absent the 4 scenarios I listed above) will not be one of them. Unless you're talking about one of the 4 scenarios I listed above, there's nothing you can hand the CFU or UNCAF to get them to agree to a full on merger. The first FIFA president to try that will completely lose those voting blocs and earn dedicated opposition for the rest of his tenure. Again, we're both aware of this.
CONCACAF doesn't want to let the Caribbean nations go because then they couldn't hold their annual meetings in Aruba. Costa Rica and Mexico are nice, but they have extradition treaties with the United States.
@Athlone The problem with squad rotation is that you get B-teams sold to the public as A-teams. I do think the contracts should start being configured on number of games played- so, for example, a club signs a player for 2 years and 80 games. If the club wants to "spend" those games on cups or preseason friendlies, it can't use him for every league game. If the player wants to spend some of his games on his country's B-rated national competition, he, or the country, has to compensate the club. The presumption is built in that the World Cup, including qualifiers, is good for both player and club, and is a limited number of games, so doesn't count against the player's quota.
The summer transfer window ends August 31, and I don't like the top European leagues starting in August not knowing whether they will or won't have certain players. I like Manchester United, and that happened to goalkeeper David de Gea, who could have gone to Real Madrid. If contracts are done so that two players who sign at the same time could have their contracts end at different times, contracts could end at times that aren't near a transfer window. An 80 game contract could last well over 2 years if the player gets injured.
I am going to combine a bunch of Forum topics here and say with the Announcement of the 48 team expanded World Cup bid by the USA and the possible discontinuation of the Confederations Cup.... ....it is more likely that the USA along with sponsors and Television Networks are going to fight even harder to host more combined Copa Americas in 2020 and 2024. The proposed Combined Copa tournaments can be very good litmus tests and dress rehearsals for what they want to do come WC 2026 logistically and Stadium preparation wise.
To fight for ? No man, if they ever want another one, they'll have to beg for it instead, as they don't belong to Conmebol, whom are the rightful owners of the tournament. And not only beg Conmebol for considering it, but also beg FIFA, they give it an official status again, including it in the official calendar. And btw, the USA really doesn't need preparation wise of their stadiums, as according to their own bid, they are already prepared to do it right away.
IT is difficult to characterize it as begging when it was very successful financially and had the highest attendance in the Copa America's history. Ratings were also pretty darn good and when you have Television and sponsors on your side it is far from begging. Just have to figure out how it can work as more of an every four year thing. As for the Stadiums yes, none have to be built as you have so astutely pointed out however there are a few venues that need to be tested with grass that have artificial turf. Having these sort of tournaments help figure out the best way to prepare for field conditions during the summer time period and other preparations.
begging, paying, you can call it as you wish, but true thing is that without the Conmebol teams with all their star players in it, and without FIFA's backing, they don't have almost anything, except their classical Mexico-USA match. You don't need any international fixture to do that, and if you still believe that they do, they can perfectly go along with their Golden mickey mouse cup (after all, this one gets played there, every 2 years).