Here is the schedule for the next rounds of the 21 conference tournaments and the key games remaining for the three conferences that don't have tournaments. Rankings are GauchoDan's RPI numbers per Sunday night. AMERICA EAST Semifinals Wednesday 46. Albany @ 70. Vermont 17. New Hampshire @ 47. Massachusetts-Lowell NOTE: UNH seems like a lock for the NCAA Tournament even if they don’t win their conference’s automatic bid but if they do, it will be interesting to see if Albany or Mass-Lowell can get an at-large. AMERICAN ATHLETIC Semifinals Friday @ Southern Methodist 76. Connecticut vs. 61. Central Florida 90. Temple @ 18. Southern Methodist NOTE: At .500, 42. South Florida is currently the last team in the NCAA Tournament but if there are any upsets they are off the bubble. If SMU wins it all, this is – surprisingly – likely a one-bid league. ATLANTIC 10 Semifinals Friday @ Dayton 19. Virginia Commonwealth vs. 34. Rhode Island 27. Massachusetts vs. 24. Fordham NOTE: The A-10 could get four NCAA bids. That’s pretty impressive considering they aren’t usually thought of as a power-conference in soccer. Kudos to them. ATLANTIC COAST Semifinals Wednesday 7. Notre Dame @ 11. Virginia 5. Clemson @ 2. Wake Forest NOTE: The ACC should get eight teams in the NCAAs. Besides these four, No. 1 UNC, 3. Duke, 6. Louisville and, despite being .500, 21. Virginia Tech should get in. No. 45 NC State is a long-shot but stranger things have happened. At 26, Pittsburgh has a good enough RPI but is two games under .500 so they aren’t getting in this year. (But that’s a program on the rise.) Also, each of the four semi-finalists have played in the national title game the past four years. ATLANTIC SUN Final Saturday 72.Lipscomb @ 164. Jacksonville BIG EAST Semifinals Wednesday 51. Xavier @ 15. Butler 63. St. John’s @ 22. Georgetown NOTE: Butler and GU are safe for at-large bids. One win might be enough to get Xavier in but St. John’s most likely needs to win the conference to get a bid. At. 57, Creighton is almost certainly on the outside looking in after their QF loss. BIG SOUTH Semifinals Wednesday 127. Liberty @ 84. High Point 130. Presbyterian @ 59. Radford BIG TEN Quarterfinal Monday 100. Penn State @ 4. Indiana Semifinals, Friday @ Westfield, IN 12. Michigan vs. 31. Wisconsin PSU/IU winner vs. 41. Ohio State NOTE: OSU is a game under and would need to make the finals and lose on PKs to get an at-large bid. Going 0-8-0 in October is going to prove very costly. Despite QF losses, 9. Michigan State and 23. Maryland are safe for at-large bids. The conference should get five bids and could get a sixth if the Buckeyes somehow qualify. BIG WEST Final, Saturday 114. Cal State Fullerton @ 62. UC Davis NOTE: There is way too much talent in California for this to be a one-bid league for the second straight year. COLONIAL ATHLETIC Semifinals Friday @ James Madison 74. Charleston vs. 38. UNC-Wilmington 44. William & Mary @ 73. James Madison NOTE: Charleston and JMU need to win it all to make the NCAAs. One win should get UNC-W an at-large bid but it’ll be tight if they don’t win the final while William & Mary will be right on the bubble if they win the SF but don’t win the final. No. 43 Elon was a contender for an at-large bid but that likely went up in smoke with their QF loss. CONFERENCE USA Quarterfinals Wednesday @ Old Dominion 14. Florida International (bye) 35. Kentucky vs. 144. Marshall 60. New Mexico vs 48. Charlotte 81. South Carolina @ 36. Old Dominion NOTE: Could get as many as four teams in the NCAAs but could also be a one-bid league if undefeated FIU wins it all and KY and ODU lose in the QFs. Neither team has much margin for error. Neither do New Mexico or Charlotte, which likely need a run to the finals to get an at-large bid. HORIZON Quarterfinals, Monday 92. Wisconsin-Green Bay (bye) 101. Illinois-Chicago (bye) 109. Detroit Mercy @ 106. Wisconsin-Milwaukee 107. Cleveland State @ 88. Wright State METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC Semifinals Thursday 95. Quinnipiac @ 66. Fairfield 77. Canisius @ 52. Rider MID-AMERICAN Semifinals Friday @ Western Michigan 135. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville vs. 10. Akron 54. West Virginia @ 8. Western Michigan NOTE: This is no longer a one-bid league! But to get to three bids, WVU likely needs to win it all though a road win over WMU in the semis would move them right onto the bubble. MISSOURI VALLEY First round, Tuesday @ Bradley 162. Valparaiso vs. 121. Drake Quarterfinals, Wednesday @ Bradley 75. Missouri State (bye) 172. Central Arkansas (bye) 111. Loyola-Chicago vs. 83. Evansville 124. Bradley vs. Valpo//Drake winner NORTHEAST Semifinals Friday @ Brooklyn 108. Fairleigh Dickinson @ 163. Long Island 196. Robert Morris @ 78. St. Francis-Brooklyn PATRIOT Quarterfinals Tuesday 56. Loyola-Maryland (bye) 136. Boston University (bye) 151. Colgate @ 182. Bucknell 158. Holy Cross @ 93. Lehigh SOUTHERN Semifinals Friday @ Furman 68. East Tennessee State vs. 146. Mercer 110. UNC Greensboro @ 79. Furman SUMMIT Semifinals Thursday @ Omaha 183. Eastern Illinois vs. 55. Denver 178. Western Illinois @ 102. Omaha SUN BELT Quarterfinals Thursday @ Coastal Carolina 25. Coastal Carolina (bye) 67. Georgia State (bye) 201. Howard vs. 157. Hartwick 134. Appalachian State vs. 97. Georgia Southern NOTE: Between 1970, Howard and Hartwick combined to go to 13 Final Fours, play in 4 championship games and win 3 national championships. Now they are after-thoughts facing off in the QFs of a low-rated conference that will need to see CCU get upset if they are to get more than one bid. WESTERN ATHLETIC Quarterfinals, Wednesday @ UNLV 20. Air Force (bye) 53. Seattle vs. 156. Cal State Bakersfield 137. Grand Canyon @ 87. UNLV 147. UT-Rio Grande Valley vs. 105. San Jose State NOTE: Air Force is safe if they get upset. Seattle might squeak into the tournament if they get a pair of wins and lose to AF in the final. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There are three conferences without a tournament that give their automatic bid to the regular season champion, the Ivy, Pac-12, and West Coast. No. 13 Stanford has already won the Pac-12 and finishes the regular season Thursday with a home game vs. 33 California, which is a near-lock to get an at-large bid. 28. Washington, which plays 118. Oregon State, will also get an at-large bid. Despite their 37. RPI, UCLA won’t get an at-large bid because they’re two games under. 500 with only one game at 159. San Diego State remaining. In the Ivy, 16. Dartmouth has already claimed the automatic bid though 29. Columbia could technically finish as co-champions. The Big Green have 16 conference points and finish at 71. Brown. The Lions have 13 conference points and finishes at 113. Cornell. If Dartmouth ties or wins, obviously they win the conference title outright. But if they lose and Columbia wins, they’ll be co-champions, technically, though Dartmouth gets the automatic bid based on their regular season win over Columbia. The Lions will most-likely get an at-large bid. In the West Coast, things aren’t nearly as settled. No. 32. Portland is in first place with 13 points but has only one game remaining, Saturday at 96. St. Mary’s. No. 58 San Francisco is a point back but has two games remaining; Wednesday against 30. Pacific and Saturday vs. 166. Loyola Marymount. Pacifc is in third place with 10 points and could still win it all; they play 126. Gonzaga Saturday. With eight conference points and one game remaining, 40. San Diego can’t win the WCC but its RPI has it right on the bubble and a win Saturday at 161. Santa Clara will help their cause. Hard to see the WCC getting four bids but if USF wins the championship it’s not impossible.
Updated.... AMERICA EAST Final Sunday 39. Albany @ 36. Massachusetts-Lowell NOTE: At No. 20, New Hampshire should get an at-large bid. But will the AE final loser still get one? AMERICAN ATHLETIC Semifinals Friday @ Southern Methodist 79. Connecticut vs. 59. Central Florida 89. Temple @ 18. Southern Methodist NOTE: At .500, 45. South Florida is currently the last team in the NCAA Tournament but if there are any upsets they are off the bubble. If SMU wins it all, this is – surprisingly – likely a one-bid league. ATLANTIC 10 Semifinals Friday @ Dayton 17. Virginia Commonwealth vs. 33 Rhode Island 26. Massachusetts vs. 24. Fordham NOTE: The A-10 could get four NCAA bids. That’s pretty impressive considering they aren’t usually thought of as a power-conference in soccer. Kudos to them. ATLANTIC COAST Final Sunday @ Charleston, SC 10. Virginia vs. 1. Wake Forest NOTE: The ACC should get eight teams in the NCAAs and seven should be seeded. Besides the finalists, No. 2 UNC, 3. Duke, 5. Clemson, 6. Louisville, 8. Notre Dame and, despite being .500, 23. Virginia Tech should get in. No. 50 NC State is a long-shot but stranger things have happened. At 26, Pittsburgh has a good enough RPI but is two games under .500 so they aren’t getting in this year. (But that’s a program on the rise.) ATLANTIC SUN Final Saturday 74. Lipscomb @ 162. Jacksonville BIG EAST Final Sunday 49. Xavier @ 22. Georgetown NOTE: 14. Butler and GU are safe for at-large bids. Xavier probably needs to win to get in. At. 58, Creighton is almost certainly on the outside looking in after their QF loss. BIG SOUTH Final Sunday 126. Presbyterian @ 69. High Point NOTE: Despite a regular season win over UVa, 64. Radford’s season is likely over. BIG TEN Semifinals, Friday @ Westfield, IN 13. Michigan vs. 32. Wisconsin 4. Indiana vs. 46. Ohio State NOTE: OSU is a game under and would need to make the finals and lose on PKs to get an at-large bid. Going 0-8-0 in October is going to prove very costly. Despite QF losses, 9. Michigan State and 22. Maryland are safe for at-large bids. The conference should get five bids and could get a sixth if the Buckeyes somehow qualify. BIG WEST Final, Saturday 109. Cal State Fullerton @ 60. UC Davis NOTE: There is still way too much talent in California for this to be a one-bid league for the second straight year. COLONIAL ATHLETIC Semifinals Friday @ James Madison 72. Charleston vs. 38. UNC-Wilmington 48. William & Mary @ 79. James Madison NOTE: Charleston and JMU need to win it all to make the NCAAs. One win should get UNC-W an at-large bid but it’ll be tight if they don’t win the final while William & Mary will be right on the bubble if they win the SF but don’t win the final. No. 42 Elon was a contender for an at-large bid but that likely went up in smoke with their QF loss. CONFERENCE USA Semifinals Friday @ Old Dominion 44. Charlotte vs. 15. Florida International 124. Marshall @ 34. Old Dominion NOTE: No. 47 Kentucky losing to Marshall very well may have cost them an at-large bid. 62. New Mexico’s season is over, too. A win over FIU would likely give Charlotte a good enough RPI to get in. ODU could fall below the cut if they lose to Marshall because of the Herdsman’s RPI. HORIZON Semifinals Friday @ UIC 112. Detroit Mercy vs. 88. Wisconsin-Green Bay 96. Cleveland State @ 101. Illinois-Chicago METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC Semifinals Thursday 89. Quinnipiac @ 65. Fairfield 76. Canisius @ 55. Rider MID-AMERICAN Semifinals Friday @ Western Michigan 139. Southern Illinois-Edwardsville vs. 11. Akron 57. West Virginia @ 7. Western Michigan NOTE: This is no longer a one-bid league! But to get to three bids, WVU likely needs to win it all though a road win over WMU in the semis would move them right onto the bubble. MISSOURI VALLEY Semifinals, Friday @ Bradley 80. Evansville vs. 75. Missouri State 171. Central Arkansas @ 115. Bradley NORTHEAST Semifinals Friday @ Brooklyn 111. Fairleigh Dickinson @ 160. Long Island 196. Robert Morris @ 77. St. Francis-Brooklyn PATRIOT Semifinals Friday @ Loyola-Maryland 138. Colgate @ 54. Loyola-Maryland 142. Holy Cross vs. 131. Boston University SOUTHERN Semifinals Friday @ Furman 68. East Tennessee State vs. 149. Mercer 110. UNC Greensboro @ 81. Furman SUMMIT Semifinals Thursday @ Omaha 183. Eastern Illinois vs. 56. Denver 177. Western Illinois @ 108. Omaha SUN BELT Quarterfinals Thursday @ Coastal Carolina 25. Coastal Carolina (bye) 67. Georgia State (bye) 201. Howard vs. 157. Hartwick 132. Appalachian State vs. 99. Georgia Southern NOTE: Between 1970, Howard and Hartwick combined to go to 13 Final Fours, play in 4 championship games and win 3 national championships. Now they are after-thoughts facing off in the QFs of a low-rated conference that will need to see CCU get upset if they are to get more than one bid. WESTERN ATHLETIC Semifinals Friday @ UNLV 98. San Jose State vs. 21. Air Force 52. Seattle vs. @ 84. UNLV NOTE: Air Force is safe if they get upset. Seattle might squeak into the tournament if they get another win and lose to AF in the final.
The West Coast Conference has managed to have all four of its final regular season games have an impact on the NCAA Tournament. San Francisco is now in first place, two points clear of Portland, but its RPI likely doesn't get them an at-large bid. But three other WCC teams, including Portland, are in Bubbleville and need wins in their finales. 166. Loyola Marymount @ 43. San Francisco (15 points) 32. Portland (13 points) @ 90. St. Mary’s 125. Gonzaga @ 36. Pacific (10 points) 40. San Diego (8 points) @ 158. Santa Clara USF beat Portland so they have that tie-breaker if the Dons tie and Portland wins. Also note that this is San Diego coach Seamus McFadden's final game after being at the program as HC since 1981. If USD wins, expect the committee to give them the benefit of the doubt for one of the final at-large slots.
AMERICA EAST Final Sunday 41. Albany @ 35. Massachusetts-Lowell NOTE: At No. 18, New Hampshire should get an at-large bid. But the loser here probably misses the NCAAs (though Lowell might squeak in to an at-large). AMERICAN ATHLETIC Final Sunday 53. Central Florida @ 17. Southern Methodist NOTE: At .500, 46. South Florida is currently on the wrong side of the bubble. If SMU wins it all, this is – surprisingly – likely a one-bid league. ATLANTIC 10 Final Sunday @ Dayton vs. 33 Rhode Island 21. Massachusetts vs. 13. Virginia Commonwealth NOTE: The A-10 could still get four NCAA bids. Both finalists should get in to the NCAAs, even after one of them loses. So should 26. Fordham. But things are gonna be tighter than a bug’s ass for 38. Rhode Island. ATLANTIC COAST Final Sunday @ Charleston, SC 9. Virginia vs. 1. Wake Forest NOTE: The ACC should get eight teams in the NCAAs and seven should be seeded. Besides the finalists, No. 2 UNC, 3. Duke, 5. Clemson, 6. Louisville, 8. Notre Dame and, despite being .500, 22. Virginia Tech should get in. No. 47 NC State is a long-shot but stranger things have happened. At 29, Pittsburgh has a good enough RPI but is two games under .500 so they aren’t getting in this year. (But that’s a program on the rise.) ATLANTIC SUN Final Saturday 81. Lipscomb @ 158. Jacksonville BIG EAST Final Sunday 51. Xavier @ 19. Georgetown NOTE: No. 14. Butler and GU are safe for at-large bids. Xavier probably needs to win to get in. At. 58, Creighton is almost certainly on the outside looking in after their QF loss. BIG SOUTH Final Sunday 125. Presbyterian @ 67. High Point NOTE: Despite a regular season win over UVa, 62. Radford’s season is likely over. BIG TEN Final Saturday @ Westfield, IN 27. Wisconsin “vs.” 4. Indiana NOTE: Both finalists are in, as is No. 15 Michigan. Despite QF losses, 9. Michigan State and 22. Maryland are safe for at-large bids. BIG WEST Final Saturday 109. Cal State Fullerton @ 59. UC Davis NOTE: There is still way too much talent in California for this to be a one-bid league for the second straight year. COLONIAL ATHLETIC Final Sunday @ James Madison 33. UNC-Wilmington vs. 45. William & Mary NOTE: Wilmington should be OK for an at-large bid if they lose but the Tribe will be right on the bubble if they lose. No. 43 Elon was a contender for an at-large bid but that likely went up in smoke with their QF loss. CONFERENCE USA Final Sunday @ Old Dominion 28. Charlotte @ 32. Old Dominion NOTE: Both finalists appear safe for an at-large if they lose. So should one-loss No. 20 Florida International. No. 49 Kentucky losing to Marshall very well may have cost them an at-large bid. 63. New Mexico’s season is over, too. HORIZON Final Saturday 78. Wisconsin-Green Bay @ 93. Illinois-Chicago METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC Final Sunday 50. Rider @ 68. Fairfield MID-AMERICAN Final Sunday 12. Akron @ 7. Western Michigan NOTE: This is no longer a one-bid league! But 57. West Virginia will probably not be able to make it 3. MISSOURI VALLEY Final Sunday 170. Central Arkansas vs. 77. Missouri State NORTHEAST Final Sunday 144. Long Island @ 173. St. Francis-Brooklyn PATRIOT Final Sunday 112 Colgate vs. 146. Holy Cross SOUTHERN Final Sunday @ Furman 148. Mercer vs. 90 UNC Greensboro @ SUMMIT Final Saturday 54. Denver @ 102. Omaha SUN BELT Semifinals Saturday 97. Howard @ 24. Coastal Carolina 58. Georgia State vs. 110. Georgia Southern NOTE: Howard now has two wins on the year! CCU still gets a bit if they are upset but 58. Georgia State probably needs to win the auto bid. WESTERN ATHLETIC Final Sunday @ UNLV 69. San Jose State vs. 56. Seattle NOTE: No. 25 Air Force is safe for an at-large bid but their upset cost some team on the bubble dearly. Seattle still probably has to win the automatic bid to get in.
Thursday, Stanford wrapped up a seed by beating Cal. The win moved the Cardinal up to 10 in the RPI and despite the loss, Cal moved up to 31. Also Thursday, Washington blew a two-goal lead @ Oregon State and lost 4-3, a result that drops them to 40. (Underachieving OSU moves up to 101.) Per GauchoDan, the last team in is currently No. 39 San Diego so that choke job by the Huskies could doom them. Speaking of San Diego and the West Coast Conference, later today... 44. San Francisco hosts 166 Loyola Marymount. A win or a tie or a loss and a Portland tie or loss gets them the WCC’s automatic bid. 34. Portland is at 93. St. Mary’s. A win by the Pilots and a loss by USF gives UP the titles. 36. Pacific hosts 127. Gonzaga and 39. San Diego is at 162. Santa Clara. The lower WCC teams’ collective RPIs are bad enough that they will likely cause the higher teams’ RPI’s to drop a bit even with wins. Any losses by the favored teams could be fatal for an at-large bid. The WCC could get as many as four and as few as one NCAA bids.
Remember, it's not the RPI of your opponents that dooms you. It's the win-loss record of your opponents.