CONCACAF rankings thread

Discussion in 'CONCACAF' started by JYDA, Sep 15, 2010.

  1. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the September 2015 FIFA Rankings:

    26. Mexico (even)
    28. USA (up 1)
    39. Costa Rica (down 1)
    52. Jamaica (up 3)
    54. Trinidad and Tobago (up 2)
    59. Panama (up 6)
    81. Honduras (even)
    87. Haiti (down 3)
    98. Guatemala (up 10)
    102. Canada (down 1)
     
  2. SJJ

    SJJ Member

    Sep 20, 1999
    Royal Oak, MI, USA
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Country:
    United States
    Will the USA -v- MEX Confederations Cup playoff be classified as a Continental Tournament game, or a Friendly?
     
  3. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Good question. The FIFA Rankings Prognosis Tool gives each countries' games for the next month and what the game is classified as, but that won't tell us about the Confederations Cup playoff until the next FIFA Rankings are released on October 1.
     
  4. SJJ

    SJJ Member

    Sep 20, 1999
    Royal Oak, MI, USA
    Club:
    Michigan Bucks
    Country:
    United States
    #204 SJJ, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2015
    Some calculations on the potential groups for WCQ:

    points: scale 1441.80 (best) to 0.00 (worst)
    overall: scale 1 to 209
    concacaf 35: scale 1 to 35
    concacaf 18: scale 1 to 18 (countries remaining in WCQ)
    concacaf 12: scale 1 to 12 (if higher seed wins the current six ties)

    Group Aptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18
    Mexico847.902611
    Honduras403.808177
    Curaçao178.101482317
    El Salvador299.731071212
    Canada319.421021010
    Belize227.131281714
    Average379.3598.6711.6710.17
    Std Dev242.3842.357.695.64


    Group Bptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18
    Costa Rica730.693933
    Panama550.705966
    Grenada155.161582618
    Haiti385.388788
    Jamaica601.655244
    Nicaragua198.411392116
    Average437.0089.0011.339.17
    Std Dev230.3549.069.716.34


    Group Cptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18
    USA822.572822
    Trinidad and Tobago593.925455
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines268.181161413
    Aruba200.851372015
    Antigua and Barbuda304.211051111
    Guatemala332.799899
    Average420.4289.6710.179.17
    Std Dev238.4940.786.434.92


    So in straight points, group B is the toughest, then C, then A.

    In overall ranking, it's still B the toughest, then again, C, then A. (In both of these, it's very close.)

    In Concacaf only, group C is the toughest, and of the final-18, B and C are equivalent.





    Group Aptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18concacaf 12
    Mexico847.926111
    Honduras403.881777
    El Salvador299.73107121211
    Canada319.42102101010
    Average467.7179.007.507.507.25
    Std Dev257.4537.094.804.804.50


    Group Bptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18concacaf 12
    Costa Rica730.6939333
    Panama550.759666
    Haiti385.3887888
    Jamaica601.6552444
    Average567.1159.255.255.255.25
    Std Dev142.8820.272.222.222.22


    Group Cptso'allconcacaf 35concacaf 18concacaf 12
    USA822.5728222
    Trinidad and Tobago593.9254555
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines268.18116141312
    Guatemala332.7998999
    Average504.3774.007.507.257.00
    Std Dev254.6240.235.204.794.40
     
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  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Using that table, for each country here is their points minus the mean points of their three opponents (I'm not spending the time doing this for all Round 3 scenarios so I'm just doing it assuming that team that is expected to advance from Round 3 to Round 4 does so):

    Mexico: 506.92
    Honduras: -85.22
    Canada: -197.72 (112.50 worse than second)
    El Salvador: -223.98

    Costa Rica: 218.11
    Jamaica: 46.06
    Panama: -21.87 (67.93 worse than second)
    Haiti: -242.30

    USA: 424.27
    Trinidad and Tobago: 119.41
    Guatemala: -228.77 (348.18 wosre than second)
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines: -314.91

    The higher the value, the easier time the country should have advancing to the Hexagonal. I noted the difference between the second best and third best team in each group because two teams advance per group. The values add up to 0 for each group. The above is done based on the current FIFA Rankings, not the rankings used to determine which teams started in which round, so that is why a team that starts in Round 4 like Panama can be ranked behind a team that starts in Round 3 like Jamaica.
     
  6. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    FIFA says it will count as a continental tournament game.

    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the October 2015 FIFA Rankings:
    27. Mexico (down 1)
    29. USA (down 1)
    42. Costa Rica (down 3)
    57. Jamaica (down 5)
    59. Trinidad and Tobago (down 5)
    65. Panama (down 6)
    77. Haiti (up 10)
    82. Guatemala (up 16)
    83. Antigua and Barbuda (up 22)
    89. Honduras (down 9)

    The third through sixth best UNCAF countries out of seven are close (Guatemala with 401 points, Honduras with 379, El Salvador with 363, and Nicaragua with 360). Nicaragua is up 44 spots to 95th, Aruba is up 22 spots to 115th, and Guyana is up 17 spots to 137th. Despite advancing over Aruba in WCQs, St. Vincent and the Grenadines fell behind Aruba and is 19th in CONCACAF and 122nd overall.
     
  7. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Country:
    United States
    Does this mean the rating will be a 3 for this game?

    Here are the ratings from FIFA

    I: Importance of match
    Friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0
    FIFA World Cup™ qualifier or confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5
    Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0
    FIFA World Cup™ final competition: I = 4.0
     
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Yes. FYI here's the current points and possible range of points in the November 2015 FIFA Rankings for USA and Mexico:

    Mexico: Has 842 and will have 809 to 881
    USA: Has 807 and will have 759 to 846

    Mexico and USA can both gain up to 39 points, but Mexico can lose up to 33 points and USA can lose up to 48. If USA wins both and Mexico beats Panama, Mexico will have 824 points and USA will pass Mexico.
     
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  9. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the November 2015 FIFA Rankings:

    24. Mexico (listed in a tie for 24th but ahead of France if you look at exact values) (up 3)
    33. USA (listed in a tie for 33rd but 34th behind Hungary if you look at exact values) (down 4)
    40. Costa Rica (up 2)
    54. Trinidad and Tobago (up 5)
    61. Jamaica (down 4) (listed in a tie for 61st but ahead of Israel if you look at exact values)
    65. Panama (same position)
    73. Haiti (up 4) (listed in a tie for 73rd but ahead of Gabon if you look at exact values)
    80. Antigua and Barbuda (up 3) (listed in a tie for 80th but 81st behind Saudi Arabia if you look at exact values)
    91. Guatemala (down 9)
    94. El Salvador (same position)

    Honduras is 95th and has fallen out of the Top 10 in CONCACAF.
     
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  10. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the December 2015 FIFA Rankings:

    22. Mexico (up 2)
    32. USA (up 1)
    37. Costa Rica (up 3)
    49. Trinidad and Tobago (up 5)
    54. Jamaica (up 7)
    64. Panama (up 1)
    77. Haiti (down 4)
    82. Antigua and Barbuda (down 2)
    88. Canada (up 14)
    91. Cuba (up 17)

    Cuba had the most spots gained in CONCACAF and St. Kitts and Nevis had the most spots dropped in CONCACAF, down 20 to 121st. Honduras is 14th in CONCACAF and out of the Top 100 for the first time ever. Their previous worst position was 95th in November 1998 and November 2015. Canada has their best ranking since they were 88th in July 2013. Canada is ahead of Honduras for the first time since October 2012 before Honduras beat Canada 8:1.
     
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  11. Belgium? Man, FIFA rankings are so much worse since they were fixed to prevent Mexico to earn further seeds.
     
  12. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the January 2016 FIFA Rankings:

    23. Mexico (down 1)
    32. USA (same position)
    37. Costa Rica (same position)
    50. Trinidad and Tobago (down 1)
    55. Jamaica (down 1)
    65. Panama (down 1)
    79. Haiti (down 2)
    88. Canada (same position)
    92. Antigua and Barbuda (down 10)
    93. Guatemala (up 1)

    Honduras is 12th in CONCACAF and re-enterered the Top 100. They are up 3 spots which is the most in CONCACAF. Cuba fell the most spots in the world, down 45 to 136th, and they're 17th in CONCACAF. Dominican Republic fell 6 spots to 160th. Only 16 new games went into the January 2016 FIFA Rankings.
     
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  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the February 2016 FIFA Rankings:

    22. Mexico (up 1)
    31. Costa Rica (up 6)
    32. USA (even)
    49. Trinidad and Tobago (up 1)
    51. Jamaica (up 4)
    60. Panama (up 5)
    65. Haiti (up 14)
    85. Canada (up 3)
    90. Antigua and Barbuda (up 2)
    91. Honduras (up 7)

    Costa Rica passed USA, and FIFA says USA will lose at least 1 point in March 2016 FIFA Rankings regardless of how they do against Canada. Honduras re-entered the CONCACAF Top 10. The Semifinal group with Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, and Haiti looks even harder now. The FIFA Rankings for the other countries left in WCQs are Guatemala (96th and 11th in CONCACAF), El Salvador (98th and 12th in CONCACAF), and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (144th and 19th in CONCACAF). CONCACAF has 35 countries and had a net movement of 34 places up.
     
  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the April 2016 FIFA Rankings:

    16. Mexico (up 6)
    25. Costa Rica (up 8)
    29. USA (up 1)
    52. Panama (up 3)
    53. Trinidad and Tobago (down 4)
    54. Jamaica (down 2)
    71. Haiti (down 7)
    85. Antigua and Barbuda (up 5)
    86. Honduras (up 3)
    89. Guatemala (up 6)

    Farther down, St. Kitts and Nevis was up 29 spots to 92nd, Guyana was up 23 spots to 133rd, and Aruba was down 24 spots to 137th. St. Kitts and Nevis and Belize, who was up 5 spots to 114th, had their best rankings ever according to FIFA.
     
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  15. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    There were hardly any changes in the May 2016 FIFA Rankings. All the countries I listed are in the same position as in April 2016 unless I specified otherwise. Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF:

    16. Mexico
    25. Costa Rica
    29. USA
    52. Panama
    53. Trinidad and Tobago
    55. Jamaica (down 1)
    71. Haiti
    85. Antigua and Barbuda
    86. Honduras
    89. Guatemala

    Jamaica got passed by Korea Republic, who were awarded a forfeit win over Kuwait.
     
  16. Mister215guy

    Mister215guy Red Card

    May 7, 2016
    If the USA can't beat a top 50 team in a competitive match, why is it still ranked in the top 50? That doesn't make sense. The USA should realistically be ranked 70-75 considered they can't beat Trinidad and lost to Guatemala.
     
  17. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Losing at Guatemala was bad, but getting a draw at Number 53 Trinidad and Tobago isn't a reason to be ranked 70-75.
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    Here are the Top 10 in CONCACAF in the June 2016 FIFA Rankings:

    16. Mexico (even)
    23. Costa Rica (up 2)
    31. USA (down 2)
    46. Jamaica (up 9)
    56. Panama (down 4)
    64. Trinidad and tobago (down 11)
    74. Haiti (down 3)
    83. Antigua and Barbuda (up 2)
    86. Honduras (even)
    91. Guatemala (down 2)

    Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago were the only CONCACAF countries to move 8 or more spots in either direction.
     
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  19. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Country:
    United States
    Based on this logic the US should be ranked 13 or better, because it just beat Ecuador.
     
  20. ArsenalMetro

    ArsenalMetro Member+

    Arsenal
    United States
    Aug 5, 2008
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    All comments like that suggest to me is that the person making them thinks there's an actual person in Zurich who puts these teams in order.
     
  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    LOL. I don't think there's an easy way of finding this out, but it would be interesting to list a list of times where Team A was ahead of Team B in the FIFA Rankings, Team A beat Team B, and Team B passed Team A in the next FIFA Rankings.
     
  22. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Country:
    United States
  23. IASocFan

    IASocFan Moderator
    Staff Member

    Aug 13, 2000
    IOWA
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Country:
    United States
    Notice also that we have:
    USA better than Costa Rica, Costa Rica better than Colombia, and Colombia better than USA! :cool:
     
  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Country:
    United States
    I know. In order to do what I said I would have to look at each team's all-time results from ELO or someplace else to see when teams played each other. Doing that for every possible pair of two teams would take way too long. If anybody finds a website with each team's FIFA Ranking every month along with what new games the team played that month, I would love that.
     
  25. Footsatt

    Footsatt Member+

    Apr 8, 2008
    Michigan
    Country:
    United States
    I thought you were looking for information on a list of times where Team A was ahead of Team B in the FIFA Rankings...

    If you scroll down in the link I posted then you will see this information recorded by months.

    Example:
    August 1993: USA 28 - Mexico 14
    September 1993: USA 26 - Mexico 16
    October 1993: USA 26 - Mexico 18
    November 1993: USA 27 - Mexico 17 (USA 1 - 1 Mexico / October 1993 Friendly)

    It would not be to difficult to combine this info with a head to head results from another site.
    Mexico v USA all time record.
     

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