Group A: Mexico 4-0 El Salvador Canada 1-1 Honduras Honduras 1-1 Mexico El Salvador 2-1 Canada Canada 0-2 Mexico El Salvador 1-2 Honduras Mexico 3-0 Canada Honduras 2-0 El Salvador El Salvador 1-2 Mexico Honduras 2-0 Canada Mexico 4-2 Honduras Canada 3-2 El Salvador Mexico: 16 points (5W - 0L - 1D) Honduras: 11 points (3W - 1L - 2D) Canada: 4 points (1W - 4L - 1D) El Salvador: 3 points (1W - 5L - 0D) Group B: Costa Rica 2-0 Haiti Jamaica 1-1 Panama Panama 1-2 Costa Rica Haiti 0-1 Jamaica Jamaica 2-2 Costa Rica Haiti 0-2 Panama Costa Rica 3-1 Jamaica Panama 1-0 Haiti Haiti 0-2 Costa Rica Panama 2-1 Jamaica Costa Rica 2-0 Panama Jamaica 1-1 Haiti Costa Rica: 15 points (5W - 0L - 1D) Panama: 10 points (3W - 2L - 1D) Jamaica: 6 points (1W - 2L - 3D) Haiti: 1 points (0W - 5L - 1D) Group C: USA 3-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines Guatemala 0-0 Trinidad and Tobago Trinidad and Tobago 1-2 USA St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0-2 Guatemala Guatemala 1-0 USA St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago USA 2-0 Guatemala Trinidad and Tobago 3-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0-2 USA Trinidad and Tobago 2-2 Guatemala USA 3-1 Trinidad and Tobago Guatemala 3-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines USA: 15 points (5W - 1L - 0D) Guatemala: 11 points (3W - 1L - 2D) Trinidad and Tobago: 8 points (2W - 2L - 2D) St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0 points (0W - 6L - 0D)
@blacksun You typed 15 points for Costa Rica, but your score predictions give them 16 points. That's the most points anybody has predicted for Costa Rica so far.
I know, but at the end of the round I evaluate how many points everybody was off for each team and I want a record typed here of how many points everybody predicted for each team.
OK, let's try out my ELO ROT (rule of thumb) model: Group A: Mexico-El Salvador 3-0 Canada-Honduras 1-0 Honduras-Mexico 0-2 El Salvador-Canada 1-0 Canada-Mexico 0-2 El Salvador-Honduras 1-1 Mexico-Canada 3-0 Honduras-El Salvador 1-0 El Salvador-Mexico 0-2 Honduras-Canada 1-0 Mexico-Honduras 3-0 Canada-El Salvador 1-0 Mexico 18 pts Honduras 7 pts Canada 6 pts El Salvador 4 pts Group B: Costa Rica-Haiti 2-0 Jamaica-Panama 1-0 Panama-Costa Rica 1-0 Haiti-Jamaica 1-0 Jamaica-Costa Rica 0-1 Haiti-Panama 0-1 Costa Rica-Jamaica 2-0 Panama-Haiti 2-0 Haiti-Costa Rica 0-1 Panama-Jamaica 1-0 Costa Rica-Panama 1-0 Jamaica-Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica 15 pts Panama 12 pts Jamaica 6 pts Haiti 3 pts Group C: USA-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4-0 Guatemala-Trinidad and Tobago 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago-USA 1-2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Guatemala 0-1 Guatemala-USA 0-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Trinidad and Tobago 0-2 USA-Guatemala 2-0 Trinidad and Tobago-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 3-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-USA 0-3 Trinidad and Tobago-Guatemala 1-0 USA-Trinidad and Tobago 2-0 Guatemala- St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2-0 USA 18 pts Trinidad and Tobago 12 pts Guatemala 6 pts St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0 pts
Actually, for the reasons explained in dlokteff's simulation thread, single-match predictions from the ELO ROT model are pretty boring, so I'll replace them with Poisson model predictions, which should be more accurate: Group A: Mexico-El Salvador 2-0 Canada-Honduras 0-0 Honduras-Mexico 1-0 El Salvador-Canada 0-0 Canada-Mexico 0-1 El Salvador-Honduras 0-1 Mexico-Canada 1-0 Honduras-El Salvador 1-0 El Salvador-Mexico 0-1 Honduras-Canada 1-0 Mexico-Honduras 1-0 Canada-El Salvador 1-0 Mexico 15 pts Honduras 13 pts Canada 5 pts El Salvador 1 pt Group B: Costa Rica-Haiti 1-0 Jamaica-Panama 1-0 Panama-Costa Rica 1-0 Haiti-Jamaica 0-0 Jamaica-Costa Rica 1-0 Haiti-Panama 0-0 Costa Rica-Jamaica 2-0 Panama-Haiti 1-0 Haiti-Costa Rica 0-0 Panama-Jamaica 1-0 Costa Rica-Panama 1-0 Jamaica-Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica 10 pts, +2 GD Panama 10 pts, +1 GD Jamaica 10 pts, 0 GD Haiti 3 pts (CRC and PAN advance on GD) Group C: USA-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 5-0 Guatemala-Trinidad and Tobago 0-1 Trinidad and Tobago-USA 2-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Guatemala 0-1 Guatemala-USA 0-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Trinidad and Tobago 0-2 USA-Guatemala 2-0 Trinidad and Tobago-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-USA 0-3 Trinidad and Tobago-Guatemala 2-0 USA-Trinidad and Tobago 2-1 Guatemala- St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2-0 USA 15 pts, +11 GD Trinidad and Tobago 15 pts, +9 GD Guatemala 6 pts St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0 pts
Group A: Mexico-El Salvador 3-0 Canada-Honduras 1-1 Honduras-Mexico 0-2 El Salvador-Canada 1-1 Canada-Mexico 0-0 El Salvador-Honduras 1-2 Mexico-Canada 2-0 Honduras-El Salvador 1-0 El Salvador-Mexico 0-1 Honduras-Canada 2-1 Mexico-Honduras 1-1 Canada-El Salvador 2-0 Mex 14 Hon 11 Can 6 ElS 1 Group B: Costa Rica-Haiti 1-0 Jamaica-Panama 1-1 Panama-Costa Rica 1-0 Haiti-Jamaica 0-2 Jamaica-Costa Rica 2-1 Haiti-Panama 1-0 Costa Rica-Jamaica 3-1 Panama-Haiti 1-0 Haiti-Costa Rica 0-2 Panama-Jamaica 1-1 Costa Rica-Panama 1-1 Jamaica-Haiti 2-0 JAM 11 CR 10 PAN 9 HAI 3 Group C: USA-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 4-0 Guatemala-Trinidad and Tobago 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago-USA 0-1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Guatemala 1-0 Guatemala-USA 0-2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-Trinidad and Tobago 0-2 USA-Guatemala 1-0 Trinidad and Tobago-St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1-0 St. Vincent and the Grenadines-USA 0-2 Trinidad and Tobago-Guatemala 2-1 USA-Trinidad and Tobago 1-1 Guatemala- St. Vincent and the Grenadines 3-0 USA 16 T&T 10 GUA 6 SVG 3
Just got in under the wire. Have felt lousy the past couple of days, and I couldn't log into this site earlier in the afternoon. Anyway, here goes nothin'! Group A Mexico 3-0 El Salvador Canada 1-1 Honduras Honduras 1-1 Mexico El Salvador 1-0 Canada Canada 0-2 Mexico El Salvador 1-1 Honduras Mexico 2-0 Canada Honduras 2-0 El Salvador El Salvador 1-2 Mexico Honduras 2-1 Canada Mexico 1-0 Honduras Canada 3-1 El Salvador Mexico 5-0-1 16 11-2 +9 Honduras 2-1-3 9 7-5 +2 Canada 1-4-1 4 5-9 -4 El Salvador 1-4-1 4 4-11 -7 Group B Costa Rica 2-1 Haiti Jamaica 1-1 Panama Panama 1-0 Costa Rica Haiti 1-1 Jamaica Jamaica 0-0 Costa Rica Haiti 2-1 Panama Costa Rica 2-0 Jamaica Panama 2-0 Haiti Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica Panama 1-1 Jamaica Costa Rica 1-1 Panama Jamaica 2-1 Haiti Panama 2-1-3 9 7-5 +2 Costa Rica 2-2-2 8 5-4 +1 Jamaica 1-1-4 7 4-5 -1 Haiti 2-3-1 7 6-8 -2 Group C USA 3-0 St. Vincent & the Grenadines Guatemala 1-1 Trinidad & Tobago Trinidad & Tobago 2-1 USA St. Vincent & the Grenadines 2-1 Guatemala Guatemala 0-1 USA St. Vincent & the Grenadines 1-2 Trinidad & Tobago USA 2-0 Guatemala Trinidad & Tobago 4-1 St. Vincent & the Grenadines St. Vincent & the Grenadines 1-3 USA Trinidad & Tobago 2-1 Guatemala USA 1-1 Trinidad & Tobago Guatemala 3-0 St. Vincent & the Grenadines Trinidad & Tobago 4-0-2 14 12-6 +6 USA 4-1-1 13 11-4 +7 Guatemala 1-4-1 4 6-8 -2 St. Vincent & Gren. 1-5-0 3 5-16 -11
@SetPeace You typed 4 goals scored and 5 goals allowed for Jamaica, but your predictions add up to 5 goals scored and 6 goals allowed.
All predictions in one spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...NlGidh9h0r4lc/pubhtml?gid=3897829&single=true
That gave me an error message. While people are free to look at other people's predictions there, I'm not going to do anything on Google Docs. For now, here are the Matchday 1 score prediction results out of a possible 24 points with your points, correct results, and exact scores in that order: 1. EvanJ: 14, 5, 1 (exact score for CAN:HON) Tied 2. Blue_nation724: 13, 4, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 2. dinamo_zagreb: 13, 4, 1 (exact score for CR:HAI) Tied 2. NoSix: 13, 4, 1 (exact score for CR:HAI) Tied 5. Sebsasour: 12, 4, 0 Tied 5. bartecky: 12, 4, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 7. Outburstz: 11, 4, 0 Tied 7. Maximiliano Biancucchi: 11, 4, 1 (exact score for CAN:HON) Tied 9. barnabyjonez: 10, 4, 0 Tied 9. WhyMe: 10, 4, 0 Tied 9. chec: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 9. ChaChaFut: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for CAN:HON) Tied 9. italiancbr: 10, 3, 2 (exact scores for MEX:ES and CR:HAI) Tied 14. Every Four Years: 9, 3, 1 (exact score for CR:HAI) Tied 14. SetPeace: 9, 3, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 16. Dr. Gamera: 8, 3, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 16. GPisco: 8, 3, 0 Tied 16. IASocFan: 8, 3, 0 Tied 16. Chul0: 8, 3, 1 (exact score for MEX:ES) Tied 16. blacksun: 8, 3, 0 21. jagum: 7, 3, 0 The averages were 10.2 points, 3.5 correct results, and 0.7 exact scores. The games won by Mexico, USA, and Costa Rica were half of the games played but combined to give people 171 out of the 214 points earned yesterday which is 79.9 percent. WhyMe and bartecky were the only people who predicted Panama's win at Jamaica.
Here are how many people predicted each outcome for each game. It will always add up to 21. If an outcome isn't listed then nobody predicted it. The games are grouped by matchday. The most commonly predicted outcome is in bold. It is also underlined if the outcome was predicted by a majority of people. MEX-ES: MEX win 20, ES win 1 CAN-HON: CAN win 7, Draw 12, HON win 2 CR-HAI: CR win 19, Draw 2 JAM-PAN: JAM win 11, Draw 8, PAN win 2 USA-SVG: USA win 21 GUA-T&T: GUA win 7, Draw 9, T&T win 5 HON-MEX: HON win 4, Draw 10, MEX win 7 ES-CAN: ES win 10, Draw 8, CAN win 3 PAN-CR: PAN win 10, Draw 10, CR win 1 (a tie for the most commonly predicted outcome) HAI-JAM: HAI win 7, Draw 8, JAM win 6 T&T-USA: T&T win 5, Draw 6, USA win 10 SVG-GUA: SVG win 2, Draw 7, GUA win 12 CAN-MEX: CAN win 1, Draw 5, MEX win 15 ES-HON: ES win 4, Draw 11, HON win 6 JAM-CR: JAM win 8, Draw 11, CR win 2 HAI-PAN: HAI win 7, Draw 8, PAN win 6 GUA-USA: GUA win 4, Draw 9, USA win 8 SVG-T&T: Draw 1, T&T win 20 MEX-CAN: MEX win 21 HON-ES: HON win 19, Draw 1, ES win 1 CR-JAM: CR win 18, Draw 2, JAM win 1 PAN-HAI: PAN win 18, Draw 3 USA-GUA: USA win 20, Draw 1 T&T-SVG: T&T win 21 ES-MEX: ES win 2, Draw 1, MEX win 18 HON-CAN: HON win 20, Draw 1 HAI-CR: HAI win 3, Draw 9, CR win 9 (a tie for the most commonly predicted outcome) PAN-JAM: PAN win 10, Draw 10, JAM win 1 (a tie for the most commonly predicted outcome) SVG-USA: USA win 21 T&T-GUA: T&T win 13, Draw 7, GUA win 1 MEX-HON: MEX win 18, Draw 3 CAN-ES: CAN win 18, Draw 2, ES win 1 CR-PAN: CR win 18, Draw 3 JAM-HAI: JAM win 16, Draw 4, HAI win 1 USA-T&T: USA win 17, Draw 4 GUA-SVG: GUA win 21 26 out of 36 games (72.2%) had an outcome predicted by a majority of people. 5 games (13.9%) had one predicted outcome, 9 games (exactly 25%) had two predicted outcomes, and 22 games (61.1%) had three predicted outcomes. Here is each country's lowest predicted goals scored, highest predicted goals scored, range (highest - lowest) in parenthesis, and mean predicted goals scored: Mexico: 6 to 22 (16) ,14.4 Honduras: 3 to 15 (12), 8.1 El Salvador: 0 to 15 (15), 5.3 Canada: 1 to 8 (7), 4.8 Costa Rica: 4 to 17 (13), 8.9 Panama: 3 to 14 (11), 7.6 Haiti: 0 to 16 (16), 4.4 Jamaica: 3 to 12 (9), 6.7 USA: 9 to 27 (18), 15.7 Trinidad and Tobago: 6 to 26 (20), 10.3 St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0 to 5 (5), 1.9 Guatemala: 3 to 12 (9), 7.5 Here is each country's lowest predicted goals allowed, highest predicted goals allowed, range (highest - lowest) in parenthesis, and mean predicted goals allowed: Mexico: 1 to 8 (7), 4.0 Honduras: 1 to 15 (14), 7.2 El Salvador: 3 to 14 (11), 11.0 Canada: 3 to 26 (23), 10.6 Costa Rica: 2 to 14 (12), 5.1 Panama: 2 to 10 (8), 6.7 Haiti: 3 to 15 (12), 8.3 Jamaica: 3 to 16 (13), 7.4 USA: 1 to 7 (6), 3.4 Trinidad and Tobago: 3 to 13 (10), 6.1 St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 11 to 36 (25), 18.2 Guatemala: 3 to 21 (18), 7.6 Here is each country's worst predicted goal differential, best predicted goal differential, range (highest - lowest) in parenthesis, and mean predicted goal differential: Mexico: +5 to +16 (11), 10.4 Honduras: : -5 to +5 (10), 1.0 El Salvador: -10 to +12 (22), -5.6 Canada: -23 to +2 (25), -5.8 Costa Rica: -5 to +9 (14), 3.8 Panama: -2 to +4 (6), 0.9 Haiti: -10 to +8 (18), -3.9 Jamaica: -7 to +6 (13), -.08 USA: +5 to +22 (17), 12.3 Trinidad and Tobago: -2 to +23 (25), 4.2 St. Vincent and the Grenadines: -32 to -9 (23), -16.4 Guatemala: -9 to +8 (17), -0.1
Weird, it works for me in any browser even if I'm signed out of google account. Does anybody else have the same problem. It easier to track competitors' predictions in one spreadsheet. That is why I put them there. I know you have your own methods and they work very good.
I attached a screen shot of the error message I got. If you want you can copy and paste your file into Excel and e-mail it to EvanJ35@ hotmail.com (remove the space). Here is the fewest predicted points, most predicted points, and mean predicted points for each country: Mexico: 12 to 18, 15.0 Honduras: 3 to 13, 9.2 El Salvador: 1 to 18, 3.8 Canada: 2 to 10, 5.5 Costa Rica: 7 to 16, 11.3 Panama: 3 to 12, 8.6 Haiti: 0 to 14, 4.3 Jamaica: 3 to 16, 7.9 (the -.08 I typed for Jamaica in my last post should be -0.8) USA: 11 to 18, 14.8 Trinidad and Tobago: 6 to 15, 10.4 St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0 to 3, 0.7 Guatemala: 4 to 15, 8.0 Here is how many people predicted each country to finish in each place in the order first, second, third, fourth, and then the mean predicted position. The first four numbers will add up to 21. Mexico: 20, 1, 0, 0, 1.05 Honduras: 0, 18, 3, 0, 2.14 El Salvador: 1, 0, 3, 17, 3.71 Canada: 0, 2, 15, 4, 3.10 Costa Rica: 13, 6, 2, 0, 1.48 Panama: 4, 9, 6, 2, 2.29 Haiti: 1, 1, 5, 14, 3.52 Jamaica: 3, 5, 8, 5, 2.71 USA: 18, 3, 0, 0, 1.14 Trinidad and Tobago: 3, 12, 6, 0, 2.14 St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0, 0, 0, 0, 4.00 Guatemala: 0, 6, 15, 0, 2.71
@bartecky Thank you for e-mailing me. Entering the predictions your way takes less time than how I did it. I have each person's score predictions for the two games in the same group and matchday in the same cell of my spreadsheet. One thing I don't like about your way is how many columns there are. I would like it better with the people being the rows and the games being the columns. Tomorrow's last games end around 10:30 P.M. (earlier than sometimes), so I might post results tomorrow night.
Here are the Matchday 1 score prediction results out of a possible 24 points with your points, correct results, and exact scores in that order: Tied 1. Outburstz: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for SVG:GUA) Tied 1. IASocFan: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for HAI:JAM) Tied 1. blacksun: 10, 3, 2 (exact scores for PAN:CR and HAI:JAM) Tied 1. italiancbr: 10, 3, 1 (exact score for HON: MEX) Tied 5. EvanJ: 8, 3, 0 Tied 5. Every Four Years: 8, 3, 0 Tied 5. Maximiliano Biancucchi: 8, 3, 0 8. Dr. Gamera: 7, 3, 0 Tied 9. jagum: 6, 2, 1 (exact score for ES:CAN) Tied 9. NoSix: 6, 2, 1 (exact score for ES:CAN) Tied 11. bartecky: 5, 2, 0 Tied 11. Chul0: 5, 2, 0 Tied 11. ChaChaFut: 5, 2, 0 14. dinamo_zagreb: 4, 1, 1 (exact score for HAI:JAM) Tied 15. GPisco: 3, 1, 0 Tied 15. barnabyjonez: 3, 1, 0 Tied 15. WhyMe: 3, 1, 0 Tied 15. chec: 3, 1, 0 19. Blue_nation724: 2, 1, 0 Tied 20. Sebsasour: 0, 0, 0 Tied 20. SetPeace: 0, 0, 0 The mean was 5.5, which was much lower than Matchday 1's mean of 10.2. The median was 5. Here are the cumulative score prediction results out of a possible 48 points with your points, correct results, and exact scores in that order: 1. EvanJ: 22, 8, 1 2. Outburstz: 21, 7, 1 3. italiancbr: 20, 6, 3 Tied 4. Maximiliano Biancucchi: 19, 7, 1 Tied 4. NoSix: 19, 6, 2 Tied 6. IASocFan: 18, 6, 1 Tied 6. blacksun: 18, 6, 2 Tied 8. Every Four Years: 17, 6, 1 Tied 8. bartecky: 17, 6, 1 Tied 8. dinamo_zagreb: 17, 5, 2 Tied 11. Dr. Gamera: 15, 6, 1 Tied 11. ChaChaFut: 15, 5, 1 Tied 11. Blue_nation724: 15, 5, 1 Tied 14. jagum: 13, 5, 1 Tied 14. Chul0: 13, 5, 1 Tied 14. barnabyjonez: 13, 5, 0 Tied 14. WhyMe: 13, 5, 0 Tied 14. chec: 13, 4, 1 19. Sebsasour: 12, 4, 0 20. GPisco: 11, 4, 0 21. SetPeace: 9, 3, 1 The mean was 15.7 and the median was 15.
Thanks. I'm preety sure there is an option to switch rows with columns. I will move the points predition to a different spreadsheet, it should make the table smaller.
To swap rows and columns in Excel (these instructions are for Excel 2010, but should be very similar in any reasonably modern version): Select the entire sheet Copy Go to another sheet (or empty space on the current sheet) Right click and select "Paste Special" On the menu, check the "Transpose" box and hit OK