CONCACAF changes World Cup Qualifying Process

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by NashSC, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. JayRockers!

    JayRockers! Member+

    Aug 4, 2001
    And even if they did, Only one of the current top 12 or so would be guaranteed make the Hex. And only three more of them would be able to advance into the Hex. Say Mexico wins League A, all it would take is a slip by USA/Costa Rica anywhere in the knockout and you’d be sending a bunch of Pot D filler to get trounced in the group stage at the WC. Certainly not the brighter move for CONCACAF.

    Thx,

    Jay!
     
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  2. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't want to be foil to you because I share your preference for the existing system over the new -- but you keep saying or implying this crap about not winning and it is just not true.

    The US and Mexico both have to win their way into the hex in nations league games, gold cup games, world cup games, etc. FIFA's rankings, however they are, are based on game results. Mexico and the USA have won their way to the top of those rankings in Concacaf. And by the way -- the current system uses the FIFA rankings to give USA and Mexico byes into the fourth stage just before the hex.

    Look -- I'd prefer it different. I would even like to see USA & Mexico come in earlier in the tournament than in the current system. But I can't deny the new system is based on performance. It is.
     
  3. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    #178 NashSC, Jul 30, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
    Ranking systems are flawed. Always have been and always will be. Yes they got byes before but still had to win to get into the hex. Now the rankings completely decide the 3 whole births.
    There should be at least 1 round of qualifying before the hex. Not some other tournament but direct qualifying.
     
  4. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    No model is perfect... but some can be highly informative. The switch to an Elo-based ranking makes the current system far more accurate than anything FIFA had in the past. There's also a mathematical limit to predictability, and I believe Elo (and Glicko) systems essentially edge up against that limit.
     
  5. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    I can't believe so many sports/soccer fans are OK with something as important as World Cup births not being decided on the field by playing against the actual opponents you are competing with for those births. By being placed directly into the Hex based on FIFA ranking and given a greater than 50% chance to get a birth, they have eliminated direct competition. Now teams can just calculate and try to create a schedule that just bumps up their ranking.

    To me it defeats the entire purpose of sporting competition. I think teams should have to earn it on the field against the exact teams that are playing for the same births. I think direct competition is the only way to truly evaluate one team compared to another. This should go without having to be said. The point of sports should be to compete against and advance against the teams you are fighting for the births with.

    We are now just one small step away from the 3 bids being automatically given to the top 3 FIFA ranked teams and all others playing for the .5 birth.

    As a sports fan do you not want teams to go through qualifying to earn their spot as opposed to creating a schedule increase their ranking? Yes there are some required tournaments along the way but no direct qualifying anymore.

    I know I am within the bounds of topic of this thread, but I will drop it now. I just don't like where this is headed and feels like it gives the potential for CONCACAF to manipulate who ends up in those 3 births.
     
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  6. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    First of all the word is "berth".

    Second, how many people are in favor of this new CONCACAF system? I don't see many in this thread. People are discussing alternate systems but I don't see anyone who has said they like the new CONCACAF plan or even are OK with it. Some people have pointed out the pros and cons but a lot of that is just a realization that we are going to have to live with this. Just because people aren't ranting against it in every post doesn't mean they prefer this system.

    Thirdly, I think you are overestimating the ability of teams to manipulate their FIFA rankings in this short of of an interval. Most teams in the critical zone have a lot of CNL games coming up and very few opportunities to schedule enough friendlies to have much of an effect.

    Lastly, we don't know where this is headed. This is very likely a one-time thing just for the 2022 World Cup. Increasing the total number of teams after that to 48 is going to change everything. 2026, in particular, is going to be a very different system with the US, Canada, and Mexico hosting. By the time we get to 2030 who knows what will happen.
     
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  7. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    This is where you massively misunderstand how Elo systems work. There are no guaranteed points in an Elo system, and any points that are "fairly certain" are miniscule so they won't help your rankings much at all. It's much, MUCH harder to "game" Elo-based systems than the previous FIFA systems - to the point it's essentially impossible.
     
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  8. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    #183 NashSC, Jul 30, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2019
    Just up thread people were calculating what teams would get from certain wins, ties and loses. If they can do it then these teams with all kinds of resources can figure out who they need to play and what results they need.
    I don't agree with you on this.
     
  9. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    Agreed on all points. Good reply.
     
  10. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Of course anyone can calculate what specific games will do to a team's rating. In fact, that's much easier to do for Elo-based systems than it is for the old FIFA rankings where you had to keep a long list of whatever games hadn't been cycled out of the calculations yet. But that doesn't mean the system is easy to game.

    In the old system, you earned a baseline amount of points for any win before averaging for the total number of games you played. Thus teams could earn points easily by scheduling a bunch of weak opponents or protect their ranking by minimizing the number of games played to reducing the averaging effect. Neither is possible in an Elo-based system. Even scheduling a bunch of tomato-can friendlies will barely move the needle. The only way to earn a lot of points is do moderately well in official competitions (where the schedule is out of your hands) or earn upsets (and you can never assume those will happen).

    The post you refer to makes that point clear - Panama couldn't really move the needle much - that potential 11pts was only for upsetting Mexico. And that's a pre-scheduled match to boot. You can't game that.
     
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  11. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Again you're conflating "disagreeing with your specific points" and "happy with the new system". Just because some people don't have the same objections as you doesn't meant hey're satisfied with the decision Concacaf made.
     
  12. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes, and we should also remember that every country has one vote, so the 29 outsiders could have stopped all this from happening. But the reality is that most of those 29 realize they have no chance of qualifying under any format, so they're happy to have two cycles of the Nations League plus a WCQ format that gives them pretty much no chance but does give them a lot of competitive games. So it ends up that the small number of high-ranked teams plus the masses of no-hoper islands combine to screw over a few teams in the 7-10 range of the rankings.
     
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  13. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    On this we agree.
     
  14. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Without saying the WCQ format is fair, it's obvious that any ranking would have Mexico and USA in the top six in Concacaf.
     
  15. Daniel from Montréal

    Aug 4, 2000
    Montréal
    Club:
    Montreal Impact
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Having 6 teams compete for 3.25 spots and 30 for .25? We're not Oceania, we've got decent teams after the top-6 (cf: Gold Cup 2019).

    (As a Canada fan), this is garbage. There's any number of ways to do this where you allow everyone to compete at their level. You wanna seed the top 6? Fine, double-Hex, with top 3 already there. But Concacaf is addicted to US-Mexico.
     
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  16. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting. I see Canada as a favorite to win the Tournament of the Others and get a home and home versus Hex #4. However, Canada can't even get to the Hex in the current format. Canada always has to face two seeded top teams in a four-team group and always comes up third.

    For me -- Canada is the biggest winner under this proposal.

    I do agree that it would be easier to do better. And yes, Canadian soccer (and all of Concacaf) is addicted to the $$ concacaf generates off of Mexico in the USA.
     
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  17. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know if any of the Others can be considered a true favorite to win. There will be a handful of competitive contenders. Depending on how the seeding and draw work out, the top teams of the Others might have a very easy path through the group stage and the first knockout round to get to the Others semifinals, but at that point teams are going to be fairly evenly matched and they're still facing four knockout rounds to qualify.

    I think the Others will feel pretty demoralized from the beginning if CONCACAF draws CONMEBOL for the inter-confederation. If they draw OFC, they'll feel not quite so bad.

    I'd be more comfortable with the format if the Others had any path at all to qualify purely through CONCACAF rather than inter-confederation. One tweak I could think of would be this:

    Top 2 of hex qualify.
    Others winner plays hex-4, loser eliminated.
    Winner of above matchup plays hex-3, winner qualifies, loser to inter-confederation.

    This would require one more FIFA window--they could do it if they used an earlier ranking to fill the hex and started everything in the June 2020 FIFA window.
     
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  18. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    here's an article talking about how Canada is trying to figure out how to optimize their ranking to get into the top 6

    https://www.sportingnews.com/ca/soc...e-friendly-matches/1nn9rfndtb6ll15dkfq2abzfe2


    Sounds like Canada is definitely trying to figure out the best way to pick up points.

    So here's an example of choosing not to play a game to help themselves out. Though obviously that same situation would have still existed if Concacaf still used the old method of qualifying for the WC. Always better to be fully focused and rested than tired going into your big game.


    also of interest:
    It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.
     
  19. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    Problem for them is all the other teams in the 6-10 range are going to do the same thing.
     
  20. cleazer

    cleazer Member+

    May 6, 2003
    Toledo, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So which teams helped and hurt themselves the most in this window?

    Jamaica picked up 2 easy wins, so that ought to at least help solidify their position in the top 4. Costa Rica lost to Uruguay, but that shouldn't hurt them too much in the points.

    Honduras picked up friendly wins over Puerto Rico, which was probably almost insignificant, and Chile, which was probably not insignificant. And if nothing else, just beating Chile is going to make the whole team feel better about themselves.

    El Salvador picked up a win over St Lucia, but then lost to Dominican Republic. And since those were actual Nations League games, they probably counted more than the friendlies above.

    Panama picked up a win and a loss against Bermuda. Also in nations League competition. I would expect that Panama and El Salvador are the two teams looking at the biggest loss in rankings points coming out of this round of games.

    Canada picked up 2 wins over Cuba, probably not worth a ton of points, but it'll be interesting to see how close they get to Panama and El Salvador after their stumbles.

    Curacao picked up a win and a tie against Haiti. They were already ahead of Haiti by 21 points, so we'll see how much further they are ahead when the next rankings show up.

    Trinidad played 2 games against Martinique. So I guess those were completely meaningless as far as qualifying for the WC, right? That seems a little unfair, but what can you do?

    The next rankings are due out on Sep 19.
     
  21. TOAzer

    TOAzer Member+

    The Man With No Club
    May 29, 2016
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is an insane system which tells a nation that its team's chances of making the world cup must depend on "world rankings", FIFA's version of China's or Twitter's "Social Media Rankings", and it is not enough to prove yourself on the field of play. Before the WCQ even unfolds, Canada [ and other "the pack behind us" contenders] are placed in a difficult position. Whereas we can enter the fray with full license to do the Couva Boogie with minimal consequence.


    This is Chicago House Style, and I am so so so proud.............:coffee:
     
  22. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    There is a guy calculating the standings as the games go over on the CONCACAF forum. He acknowledges that there will be small errors in the numbers.

    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/hexagonal-qualification-tracking-the-rankings-r.2106189/

    He has the projected current rankings looking like this after the September games:

    MEX 1603 (-1)
    USA 1545 (-3)
    CRC 1442 (-3)
    JAM 1434 (+9)
    HON 1359 (+9)
    SLV 1328 (-14)
    --
    CAN 1322 (+10) [+1]
    CUW 1320 (+11) [+1]
    PAN 1316 (-15) [-2]
    HAI 1277 (-11)
    TRI 1226
    ATG 1137 (+1)
    (point change since last official rankings)
    [position change since last official rankings]
     
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  23. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    I know what you're intending to say, but to be entirely fair, FIFA's rankings are 100% based on proving yourself on the field of play - just a more holistic view and less in a H2H sense. Not to mention that the new FIFA system is a heck of a lot more accurate (and less gameable) than any of the old systems were.
     
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  24. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    My argument to this is, no matter how good you think a ranking system is, nothing is as fair as actually playing games against each other. If the rankings system is so good then why actually play the WC? Lets just crown the number one team in the rankings every 4 years. At some point you have to play actual games head to head. Where do you draw the line? I think they are getting very dangerously close to this line in CONCACAF with the WC qualifying changes.
    I will never be in favor of lowering the games against the teams you are qualifying with for a rankings system. What is the reason to stop direct qualifying? Why does it need to be done? The old qualifying worked fine.
     
  25. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Because there's not enough time for the prior system (two group stages before the Hex) in this cycle. Now they brought that on themselves with their Nations League but to be a little fair to them that was in response to UEFA's Nations League and the loss of opponents for friendlies. But really it was a problem of their own creation. Given that problem though, I understand why they had to change the qualification process.
     
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