From a pride standpoint, maybe, but from a competitive standpoint? They'd be the instant favorite for winning the KO path, as opposed to being a longshot for fourth (much less third or better) in the Hex group. Granted, there's no room for error in a KO competition, so that's the tradeoff for having much weaker competition, but IDK if that "7th in C'CAF" is as awful as people are thinking...
Honduras has finished 3rd/3rd/4th in the last three hexes, so there's no reason they would consider the hex path a longshot. Panama just qualified for the last World Cup, so I doubt they fear the competition of the hex. In the hex you have six teams playing for 3.25 slots, while the remainder's competition requires a bunch of knockout rounds to get a 0.25 slot chance. Anybody who's near the hex level would prefer the hex.
TV revenue, ticket sales/prices, overall revenue for being in the hex is going to dwarf the other route is it not?
I still cannot believe giving the rest of the confederation a shot at one spot with a playoff against another CONCACAF team for a chance at a playoff against a team from another federation fulfills FIFA's "open to all teams" requirement. I am not saying FIFA hasn't signed off on this. I am saying I don't think they should have.
Your hoping for FIFA to develop altruistic motives... Follow the money. FIFA doesn't lose cash if Antigua and Barbuda doesn't make the World Cup. I imagine they lost a bit...not a lot, but some...when the US flamed out. Or some sponsors did.
Agreed, but they are the ones that made the open to all rule. If they aren't going to make sure it is really upheld then just get rid of the rule. They make the rules so why put fake rules in place?
They also made a recommendation that leagues not be greater than 18 teams and a rule that World Cup hosting would rotate between the confederations.
I guess for the Caribbean minnows, it's actually a shorter (and for them, more affordable) path than they used to have...If memory serves, someone like Grenada or USVI would have had to play somewhere north of 20 matches to qualify for a World Cup. Not that I like this any more than I did earlier in the thread.
Most of the money is tied up long before qualifying happens, so FIFA does not lose much, now Fox in the USA probably was not very happy. The biggest problem would be if large markets like Mexico or the USA were bubble teams cycle after cycle. Now if you want a conspiracy, ask why FIFA has not fixed the rules to make sure China makes it to the WC year after year. FIFA may want to place China in the Oceania Federation, and then move NZ to AFC just to make sure. China is probably the one remaining market that FIFA would love to see qualify to the WC in a consistent basis.
Sure but now they have to play all those games for a .25 spot. Before they were playing all those games for 3.5 spots.
I went back to look at the format. If I read it right (and there's some question how a single elimination knockout tournament can be in a home-and-away format in my mind), the most number of matches a Grenada would have to play to get to the World Cup is...13: 6 group stage (assuming they get in a group of four, could only be 4) 3 knockout matches 2 against Hex 4th 2 in the Intercontinental playoff. Note, that's not the hex. Walk that path, they're in the World Cup. That's only three more matches than either the US or Mexico will at least be playing. That's certainly less than the 18 matches anyone in COMNEBOL has to play.
Good analysis. Honestly for me, it isn't the number matches but the .25 spot. I don't see that has truly being open to everyone. I think everyone should have a shot at the same 3.5 spots. I imagine that is what FIFA had in mind when they made qualifying rules, but are now allowing them to be bent so it gives the money earners a more guaranteed spot. Qualifying should be an open process IMO. Not put the 6 best teams (by FIFA rankings) in a group and give them 3.25 spots and then put all other teams in a competition for .25 spots. I just don't like manufactured results/tournaments. If you are going to do that, then why even play the games? Lets just give 3 spots to US, Mexico, CR and then let all other teams play in a tournament for the .5 spot. The reason most of us follow sports because teams have to earn their spots and results. When you take that away, what is the point really? I will never be OK with the US just being plopped in the final 6 with a more than 50% of qualifying.
Thanks! 16 is still exactly the number of matches the US had to play last go-round... and...somebody's going to "get hot" and advance through those knockout rounds... OK, CONCACAF...you've got my interest. Weasels.
Which is why I included both a recommendation and a rule example. But you knew that. You mean like Oceania, where everyone plays for a .5 spot? Why is Concacaf's .25 spot a significantly different result than that?
Because everyone plays for the same number spots. It really is simple but you love to argue with me. If just some of the teams were playing for that .5 spot it would be comparable but that is far from the case so it is not. This is not a comparable scenario and you know that. I will never be OK with all teams not being open to the same 3.5 spots, and there is nothing wrong with a sports fan having this conviction as much as you are trying to make there be.
So if the non-Hex teams were their own confederation you'd say the FIFA rule about everyone having access was met despite playing for just .25 spots, but because they're in a confederation where a completely different group of teams is playing through a different qualifying scenario, the rule isn't met? You can have all the convictions you like, I don't question them. I question your logic.
But they aren't a different confederation. I am not living in hypotheticals. I am living in reality. The here and now. 3.25 of CONCACAF's 3.5 spots are only available to 6 of 41 countries. That is what I have an issue with.
I get where you're coming from, but as I ponder more on this...you could make the case that that .25 is a heck of a lot more accessible for the vast majority of those 35 countries than the 3.5 ever were. In theory, it's now possible for someone to qualify for a World Cup out of CONCACAF without having to play 5 of the 6 top teams in the federation. No Mexico, no US, no Costa Rica. If I'm Grenada, I'm liking those odds. If I'm Canada, I'm not so sure I'd be in all that big of a rush to crack the Top 6.
And Concacaf's 3.5 spots are only available to 41 of the 211 FIFA members. One artificial division (confederations) is essentially the same as the other (Hex/No-Hex)r IMO. Every one of those 211 countries (well, there may be FIFA members that can't qualify for the WC) have a route to the WC.
Jamaica is in a Nations league group with Guyana, Antigua, and Aruba. They should be fine Honduras is in a group with Trinidad and Martinique. Probably the easiest out of the League A groups, but as we saw in the Gold Cup, Honduras is not at their best right now. They're obviously favorites in that group, but one or two bad results in that group could hurt their ranking. El Salvador is in a group with Dominican Republic, St Lucia, and Montserrat. Once again, obviously favorites, but like Honduras, a couple disappointing results could hurt their ranking, since they'll be playing teams ranked well below them. Panama is in a group with Mexico and Bermuda. Would a tie and a loss against the much higher ranked Mexico be enough to improve their ranking? Or would they actually need a win vs Mexico? Since people know how these rankings are actually calculated, can anyone answer? Suffice it to say, Panama at least has the opportunity to pick up points in their home game vs Mexico. Canada is of course in a group with the US and Cuba. Similar to Panama, I would imagine that they would want to circle their home game vs the US as a chance to pick up a pile of points. Though also like Panama, I wonder what the point difference would be for a tie vs a win. Curacao is in a group with Haiti and Costa Rica. Obviously, for either Curacao or Haiti to make a move, they need to sweep the other and likely pick up at least 1 win vs Costa Rica. It's probably too tall of an order for either of them to get into the top 6, but if one of them does pick up two wins vs the other, it wouldn't shock me if they made a run for that 7th spot to finish best of the rest. Now of course, those are just the Nations League groups. Friendlies add another element of random points possibilities entirely.