CONCACAF changes World Cup Qualifying Process

Discussion in 'MLS: News & Analysis' started by NashSC, Jul 10, 2019.

  1. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Or keep what they have now. The Hex is the best most exciting qualification tournament in the world cup world wide. There is nothing like the drama of the last night of the hex. Conmebol is well sorted towards the end of their tournament. UEFA is mostly big fish eating minnows. But for all the reasons that folks have given (incompatibility with Nations league) I see why they are changing. I don't like the change ... but at least they keep the hex.
     
  2. CMeszt

    CMeszt Member+

    Farewell Sweet Prince
    Jan 9, 2004
    Gentrification's Apex.
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    USMNT N&A will do that to ya.
     
  3. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    I find it odd there seems to be no consistency when FIFA rankings are released.
    Sometimes it is a month apart, sometimes 2, and it always is different days of the month. Seems they would just simplify and release on the same day of the month every other month or something like that.
     
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  4. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think they can if they keep the Nations League. There aren't enough dates for the hex qualifying round after the Nations League and before they would need to start the Hex. That's what's driving this change.
     
  5. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They used to making rankings every month, but sometimes the rankings hardly changed when the only national team games weren't on FIFA matchdays or if the only teams that played were in a tournament in one confederation. Now rankings are only released after FIFA matchdays. It's not "always different days of the month." The June rankings were on a Friday. Every ranking in 2018 and 2019 before that was on a Thursday.
     
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  6. DonJuego

    DonJuego Member+

    Aug 19, 2005
    Austin, TX
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So you are saying it goes away after this round?

    I think that is inevitable because Concacaf will have 5 or 6 slots to World Cups after 2022. Hex would no longer make sense. But at least for the 2022 cycle we keep the hex.
     
  7. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    A hex still makes plausible sense for 2026, assuming all three hosts are given auto-bids. CONCACAF will have six slots plus two playoff slots. Give three of the guaranteed slots to the hosts and they could do essentially the same format to play for the remainder. Doesn't work beyond that, though.
     
  8. ElNaranja

    ElNaranja Member+

    Houston Dynamo
    United States
    Jul 16, 2017
    With 6 slots you could have 2 Hexes and with top 3 each making it and the winners play each other home/away just....cause it allows them to make another trophy? Also, more likely to get desired US v Mexico qualifiers.
     
  9. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    I said different day of the month...not day of the week. So yes they are always different days of the month.
    14, 4, 7, 20, 29th are the last 5 ranking release dates. Often when things are released on a monthly-ish schedule it is the same date of the month or a regular interval...like the 1st monday of each month. The FIFA rankings are release sometimes at the beginning of a month, sometimes in the middle of a month, sometimes at the end of a month and sometimes not at all for a month or two.
     
  10. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You missed some complicated geopolitics, one where Jared Kushner (yes, that guy) helped the bid significantly. Morocco was profoundly disappointed that a Saudi-led voting coalition comprised of Asian and African states went with the North American bid instead of theirs, making the final tally much more pro-North America than was thought.

    Your list is the logical one, sans Kushner's efforts. It's a weird world we live in . . .
     
  11. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If they're same day of the week, they're different days every month. You're doing something comparable to complaining that Thanksgiving isn't the same date every year. I'm sure there are plenty of jobs with monthly tasks that pick something like the last Monday of the month. They wouldn't pick the same date every month because it could be a weekend. The date within the month depends on when within the national teams play. Whether you believe me or not, I know that FIFA uses the dates of games to determine when they make rankings. If FIFA was willing to spend time talking to you, I'm confident they would say what I'm saying. The way to please you would be for all national team games to be in the same part of the month, but even that doesn't work when there are tournaments.
     
  12. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    I wasn't aware of his involvement, thanks for informing me
     
  13. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Most certainly they are waiting for AFCON to finish before releasing the next rankings.
     
  14. Ismitje

    Ismitje Super Moderator

    Dec 30, 2000
    The Palouse
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I watch these things as part of my professional life, and it was pretty late-breaking. Certainly the prognostication (mine included until a week or so out) had it very much along the lines you did.
     
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  15. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    That is why is said "OR"
    I understand you can't do the first Monday of every month (for example) and the same date each month.
    It was just an observation not a complaint. I found it odd. It isn't normal to have something that is released regularly vary so much. You have explained the reason and I understand now. Thanks.
     
  16. SetPeace

    SetPeace Member+

    Jun 22, 2004
    SC Illinois
    Club:
    Torquay United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    To borrow a favorite phrase in the NFL; "Upon further review..." I guess this is the best way for CONCACAF to winnow the field of World Cup 2022 participants. It gives the lesser teams more games to play, which in theory, helps those sides build for a better tomorrow or at least garner more consistency and develop as much depth as possible. As has been mentioned, there aren't enough match days on the international calendar to accommodate a meaningful competition whether you're a minnow or a big dog. Let's face it. Most of CONCACAF would be more competitive in the OFC. The top 3 in CONCACAF would stand a decent chance to make the Round of 16 knockouts in a UEFA tournament. The rest of our confederation would be more suited to the competition in CAF or AFC or low-level CONMEBOL teams.
     
  17. BalanceUT

    BalanceUT RSL and THFC!

    Oct 8, 2006
    Appalachia
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Part of the USA's (and many top Republican families) unique closeness to Saudi royalty that goes back generations, now.
     
  18. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The rankings will be released on Thursday July 25. The ones after that will be 8 weeks later on September 19, then 5 weeks later on October 24, then 5 weeks later on November 28, then 3 weeks later on December 19. I don't know what games national teams will play between November 28 and December 19, but FIFA names a mover of the year, so they may want to have December rankings every year.
     
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  19. Green and BLue

    Green and BLue Member+

    Seattle Sounders FC
    Nov 3, 2003
    Republic of Cascadia
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know what you guys are up in arms about. You just have to take the six computer rankings, factor in a 50% adjusted maximum deviation factor, toss out the lowest and highest rankings, average the remaining four, add that to the average rankings of the AP and Coaches Polls, and then divide that by the square root of the Strength of Schedule figure, then subtract the Average Margin of Victory raised to the power of the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow.

    See? Easy.
     
  20. NashSC

    NashSC Member+

    Nashville SC
    United States
    Jan 3, 2018
    US and Mexico both moved up quite a bit. Mexico moved up 6 spots to 12 and US moved up 8 to 22.
     
  21. ElNaranja

    ElNaranja Member+

    Houston Dynamo
    United States
    Jul 16, 2017
    African or European?
     
  22. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Here are the new FIFA rankings for the top 15 of CONCACAF. Not much changed. Haiti moved to 10th. St. Kitts and Nevis moved up to 13th. Trindidad & Tobago and Nicaragua each dropped a spot.

    1. Mexico
    2. USA
    3. Costa Rica
    4. Jamaica
    5. Honduras
    6. El Salvador
    ==========
    7. Panama
    8. Canada
    9. Curacao
    10. Haiti
    11. Trinidad & Tobago
    12. Antigua and Barbuda
    13. St. Kitts and Nevis
    14. Nicaragua
    15. Guatemala
     
  23. ThreeApples

    ThreeApples Member+

    Jul 28, 1999
    Smurf Village
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's more revealing with the point totals:

    MEX 1604
    USA 1548
    CRC 1445
    JAM 1425
    HON 1350
    ELS 1342
    ============
    PAN 1331
    CAN 1312
    CUY 1309
    HAI 1288
    TRI 1226
    ATG 1136

    Except in rare cases (a very low-ranked team beating a much higher-ranked team), Nations League group games will give teams plus or minus a single-digit total of points. Friendlies are guaranteed to have single-digit value. I'd consider MEX and USA locked in--it would be tough for them to fall out of the top 6 even if they lost every game through June. CRC and JAM are near locks unless one of them has an absolute collapse. Teams 5-9 are in the battle, though the odds are long for CAN and CUY. I'd say HAI is the lowest team that has even a long-shot dream of making it.
     
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  24. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The Honduras/El Salvador/Panama odd team out is going to be hating life.
     
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  25. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But if you are playing in the match this afternoon, move your clothes down onto the lower peg immediately after lunch, before you write your letter home, if you're not getting your hair cut, unless you've got a younger brother who is going out this weekend as the guest of another boy, in which case, collect his note before lunch, put it in your letter after you've had your hair cut, and make sure he moves your clothes down onto the lower peg for you. But if you're not getting your hair cut, you don't have to move your brother's clothes down to the lower peg. You simply collect his note before lunch, after you've done your scripture prep, when you've written your letter home, before rest, move your own clothes onto the lower peg, greet the visitors, and report to Mr. Viney that you've had your chit signed.
     
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