Comparison of confederation results

Discussion in 'World Cup 2018 - Russia' started by Brasitusa, Jun 20, 2018.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    I will be alright if that were to happen:) Unfortunately, I give the Saudis a chance against Egypt even though Egypt are better.
     
  2. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Saudis play differently against Arab teams than they do against European teams. They don’t have an inferiorty complex towards other Arabs and they’re the masters of getting into your head, and we all know this Egypt team is anything but mentally strong. So don’t be shocked if Saudis somehow managed to get a result. I will obviously be supporting Egypt, but I’m just telling you how Saudis are against other Arab teams.
     
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  3. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are you really going to use that pointless match up between Egypt and Saudi to see which confederation is stronger?
     
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  4. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Use it how? This is not a battle, it’s just a general comparison. I don’t think anyone here questions that Africa has better players and is stronger than Asia as a confederation. It’s just that some people pretend that Africa is a head and shoulders above Asia and that’s simply not the case. With the exception of Saudis who are an embarrassment, the other top Asian teams are strong and competitive and much more organized and disciplined than the top African teams.
     
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  5. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    always have to have this debate about which lesser confederation is better huh, nothing ever changes.

    I think its always important to look at the worst losses, because this to me shows that a confed MIGHT BE over represented.

    5 goal loss: AFC (S.Arabia) and Concacaf (Panama)
    3 goal loss: Uefa (Poland) Conembol (Argentina) CAF (Tunisia) Concacaf (Panama)

    We have teams from ALL Confedertions amongst the worst performers.

    The worst team is clearly Panama with 2 horrible results. I correctly called them the worst team before this tournament started.

    With Poland, Panama and Tunisia a strong argument could be made that better sides from their confederations were left behind.

    Can't really do the same with S. Arabia or Argentina.

    I dont know where I am going with all this, just interesting statistics.
     
  6. Mani

    Mani BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 1, 2004
    Club:
    Perspolis
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Says who? Syria, Uzbekistan and even China, Qatar, UAE, and Iraq are usually better than or equal to Saudis. It’s just that Saudis had a good run in the WCQs which included half a dozen penalty calls that put them in the driver seat to qualify. Otherwise, this Saudi team had not even gotten out of the group stage at the Asian Cup or made the final round of WCQ for a long time. You’re acting like they have been consistently a top 5 side in Asia. They were not even a top 10 side in Asia for almost a decade.
     
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  7. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Sorry but none of those teams are as good as S. Arabia. You can delude yourself all you want.

    Uzbekistan just got beat 3-0 by Uruguay, while Saudis only lost 1-0. Saudi's have actually played decently(relatively speaking) of recent, they just got mauled by Russia somehow.

    AFC has pretty much the best qualification method of any Confederation and Saudi's didn't even need a playoff. I dont see any better teams in Asia sorry. LOL at China who just got mauled AT HOME by Wales 6-1 recently. Nice try. Your best teams are all here.
     
  8. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    Not sure how a case can be made about stronger teams left behind for CONCACAF. They have their best teams play a league of home and away matches and the next team after Panama had a chance to go through playoffs but were comfortably beaten. In the case of Poland and Tunisia you can argue they got easy draws (or other teams left behind had tougher draws).
     
  9. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    you're right, but I guess I'm cutting the US a little slack, because there is no way in hell they would have been embarassed like that.
     
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  10. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Football is about judgment calls, whether you are a coach, a player, the referee or even a pundit picking out the strongest or the weakest. Brazil got whipped 7:1 in one of the most lopsided halves of football ever by Germany in Wc2014 at home. The fact that was the most lopsided loss in that tournament didn't make semifinalist Brazil the weakest side competing at the World Cup. In fact, one game alone doesn't make or break a side's reputation in my mind. Even 3 World Cup games isn't sometimes enough of a sample to do so. I, personally, look to overall results by a side in a relevant time frame, informed when possible by an understanding of their strengths, weaknesses and overall circumstances.

    In that context, I still think Tunisia (with the addition of its new players) are a very good side and their suddenly reckless tactics in this tournament doesn't change my view of what I saw from them in Russia (or what I recall from their friendly against Iran, where they played from a far more realistic tactical setup, pressing from midfield and not as high as they have against teams like Belgium and England to boot). But, of course, they didn't show well in Russia in their results and my hope is that they don't compound their poor showing by getting a poor result even against Panama. That would truly do their abilities and skills and image an injustice. Similarly, Morocco are truly a fine side and one of the best pressing and passing teams I have seen. They clearly deserved better than being pointless after 2 games. Egypt, on the other hand, aren't as good as either Tunisia or Morocco even with Salah but without him are a level below them. In their case, I thought their results reflected their overall strengths and weaknesses. Nigeria are an excellent side if they can play to their strengths and, in particular, if they take the lead. They are a bit stale in other set ups. Senegal are also pretty good but they still are less than the sum of their parts.

    In the AFC, Saudi Arabia is the weakest mainly because their weaknesses outweigh the few more positive attributes they have. In this regard, Saudi Arabia is rubbish in terms of its mentality, psychological preparedness, physical strength and their defense. On these points, no doubt the AFC has better sides even from teams who aren't in Russia (e.g., Syria, or Iraq or Uzbekistan). But Saudi Arabia does have a bit more skills than most AFC sides not in Russia (but not the UAE) and also is better passing the ball around than some others who are even in Russia, including Iran (which is Asia's strongest side overall). In fact, only Japan are better than Saudi Arabia in terms of passing and distribution ability. South Korea have a little of everything but not enough of any of them to impress me and, particularly with an error prone defense, rate as the 2nd weakest AFC side in Russia after Saudi Arabia. Between Japan (the most articulate side in Asia), Iran (strongest overall), and Australia (psychologically strongest side in Asia), depending on the game and what you are focusing on, you might come away with a different view of which is the strongest team in the AFC.

    In Concacaf, the US is clearly stronger than the likes of Panama or Honduras. Or even Costa Rica these days, although the Ticos were good enough to embarrass the Americans in one of their qualifying matches. But the Americans dropped the ball at the wrong time and ended up not even qualifying. Panama, on the other hand, while not rubbish in every sense, is rubbish overall. On their performances and results so far in this tournament, they rate the weakest side in Russia. But that doesn't mean they can't go against a demoralized Tunisia and somehow pull out a result.

    That is my view of the 3 lesser confederations, where CAF remains the best in terms of individual talent, has players with strong physical attributes, but are of average to below average strength psychologically and mentally, where Mexico is the strongest mentally and psychologically and where Saudi Arabia is the weakest on that criteria compared to all -- even Panama. And since a good deal of football begins with the head and relies on being prepared psychologically, you can expect results to reflect not just talent and potential but the latter as well, in particular in a tournament like the World Cup.

    As an aside, there is a reason Iran never goes pointless or embarrassed but never goes higher. It starts with the psychological element in the game. Hope Iran, which is a strong side psychologically but with its own demons, can overcome that hurdle today against Portugal and break from its previous mold. If it does, the sky is almost the limit for Iran, as other than Belgium and Brazil (and maybe Germany if they get their act together), I haven't seen a side in Russia that will be able to go against Iran and be even reasonably assured of beating us.
     
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  11. thewitness

    thewitness Member

    Melbourne Victory, Derby County
    Australia
    Jul 10, 2013
    Club:
    Derby County FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I agree with most of that. However I do believe Syria are currently better than the Saudis but not really by that much. A poor Australia had a lot more trouble with Syria then they did with Saudi Arabia, and Syria were prevented from playing any of their qualifiers at home.
     
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  12. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    Nice write up, pretty much agree.
     
  13. vancity eagle

    vancity eagle Member+

    Apr 6, 2006
    I think Syria may be stronger mentally, perhaps better defensively, but like IM said above, no way are they better technically, or at ball distribution and passing.

    Saudi Arabia are really a weird side to me because when I watch them they are technically pretty good on the ball, their passing and interchanging on the ball is pretty damn good, yet for some reason they can lose games 5-0. I believe they even had far more possession than Russia in that match. They just seem to be very weak mentally and they have collapsed in multiple world cups, which to me suggests it's some sort of psychological problem with their football culture.

    As someone else stated, they play Arab teams differently, I have noticed this as well, so it wouldn't surprise me if they get a result against Egypt, although Egypt would always do better than them against European or South American opposition.
     
  14. bigsoccertst1

    bigsoccertst1 Member+

    United States
    Sep 22, 2017
    Dude... KSA was horrible vs Russia. I suggest you revisit the quality of crosses made by KSA players... atrocious.

    No wonder KSA cannot score against non-AFC teams, in official matches.

    People talking about psychological/emotional strength when it is primarily bad football skills which get teams eliminated from the WC. Same goes for Panama.

    Glad both KSA and PAN are out of the WC, no need to see rubbish level football during knockout stages.

    Argentina drawing against a debutante like Iceland was another joke. Should you ignore historic achievements, ARG is a consistently poor side way since Conmebol qualifiers. Might be good for them to exit the WC during group phase.

    UEFA coming up top, while other confeds are dropping out like flies.
     
  15. zahzah

    zahzah Member+

    Jun 27, 2011
    Club:
    FK Crvena Zvezda Beograd
    I hope some stay. The Euros were boring as hell.
     
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  16. NaBUru38

    NaBUru38 Member+

    Mar 8, 2016
    Las Canteras, Uruguay
    Club:
    Club Nacional de Football
    Really? They lost to Trinidad & Tobago.
     
  17. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Which was a bad loss but anyone with a brain knows USA is better than Panama and Honduras
     
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  18. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    and anyone that can look up results and a table may conclude otherwise.
     
  19. Outburstz

    Outburstz Member

    Jun 22, 2014
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    do you mean that 4-0 the USA beat Panama or the 6-0 we beat Honduras? I won't turn this into a USA thread but come on now.
     
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  20. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    #45 SiberianThunderT, Jun 25, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2018
    The USA loss to T&T is, by multiple contextual and statistical measures, the worst loss in the history of the USMNT program. It's nearly the definition of an outlier. On a similar note, the USA shellacking other CONCACAF minnows doesn't say much.

    If you want to look at results, remember that even a ten-match campaign is still chump change in the grand scheme of things. The severity of the qualifying failure has made nearly everyone forget that the USMNT second-ish team won the Gold Cup that same year, or that the USA has (A)fairly consistently gotten out of the group in their (B)run of seven consecutive qualification. No CONCACAF nations aside form Mexico can also make those two claims. Not to mention most reliable ranking systems but the US solidly in the top 30 worldwide, which is plenty to say they would fit in the World Cup.

    So yes, despite the qualifying campaign, the USA would likely not look as outclassed as Panama or the current iteration of Costa Rica were they here instead.

    - - - - -

    Circling back a bit more, though, the issue when comparing CONCACAF to CAF and AFC in terms of MWC expansion comes with different issues. CONCACAF has, historically, better results than either of CAF or AFC in the MWC. The issue with the comparison is that CAF and AFC, while having slightly less success, have earned that success with a wider variety of nations than CONCACAF's slightly more success has come from. CONCACAF has two consistently competitive nations in USA and Mexico... and no other nation has really made a dent in the competition aside from Costa Rica's wonder run last time. In other words, the other confeds have historically had a slightly lower ceiling but more nations within the confed who can hit that level, while CONCACAF has two teams with a higher ceiling but the confed's depth drops off quickly after that.

    In either situation, expanding past the current allocation won't actually improve the performance of any of those confeds - in fact, aside from *maybe* allowing a few more UEFA teams, there's no real gain competitively in expanding any confed. But since we are expanding, the question of who you give the spots to comes down to balancing past success with confed size and potential... CONCACAF is better in one aspect, AFC and CAF are better in the other. All things considered, letting the three expand proportional to what's already present makes the most sense. There isn't a strong argument anywhere to favor one or two of those three over the other(s).
     
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  21. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    I'm looking up the league table and see that the USA came 5th out of 6 teams. A league table gives an idea of how teams performed over a series of matches and doesn't place all emphasis on a one off good or bad performance. The USA is normally better than Panama and Honduras, but during the time period the hex was run they weren't.
     
  22. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Right now it's looking like:

    CONCACAF: Mexico
    CAF: Nigeria, possibly Senegal
    AFC: Possibly Japan
    CONMEBOL: Uruguay, Brazil, possibly Colombia

    That leaves 10 UEFA teams advancing to the Round of 16, matching the 10/14 they sent to the R16 in 2006 and signifying a marked improvement from the 6/13 they sent in 2010 and 2014.
     
  23. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Alright, so a change from my original predictions due to Argentina's victory over Nigeria. I wasn't necessarily expecting that. With Uruguay already confirmed and Brazil obviously heavily favored to advance, there should be at least three CONMEBOL teams in the R16. So, in summary...

    10 UEFA
    3 - 4 CONMEBOL (pending Colombia's performance)
    Mexico
    1-2 CAF and AFC (one or both of Senegal or Japan)

    If Senegal loses against Colombia and Japan gets any sort of result against Poland, we could have no CAF teams in the second round for the first time since 1982. Whether that means that African football has declined relative to that of the Europeans and South Americans, or has to do with their awful qualification format, I don't know. Tunisia and Egypt have both been poor. Morocco was alright, but unfortunately couldn't get results. Their two best were clearly the two West African sides, and now only one remains.
     
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  24. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    So the well-balanced Group H has to serve as the last hope for CAF and AFC to have a team in the Round of 16. Disappointed nobody else got the job done. Nigeria and Iran were close but just missed out.
     
  25. Nico777

    Nico777 Member+

    Olympique de marseille
    Croatia
    Oct 19, 2017
    Don't count out Sweden and Serbia...it is not over.
     

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