Watching the results of both gender NCAA hoops Tournaments, particularly last night, is making it clear that SEC football money talks, legacy walks. Granted there are the lingering demographic/geographic influences (where women's soccer exposure is paid for the most in the northeast) but as soccer accessibility and identification opens up to more athletes (it has to, see USNT's abysmal state), the SEC over the ACC is a certainty. thank you.
Pinsky at Tennessee has all the money, all the facilities, and is getting top recruits. But...not even sniffing and NCAA title. Sometimes not even making the 64 team tournament. It takes alot more than money to win at this level. I do agree that the USWNT, and especially the YNT are in an abysmal state. I also believe that there is a major problem with player selection, bias, paternalistic selection, etc. However, there are certainly many SEC players in the US YNT mix, and they too have been a part of the recent disappointing results.
The SEC is a very solid conference and IMO it will keep getting better, both because there is money in the conference but more so because it is a conference that is hyper-competitive in everything.
The "top recruits" Pinsky signs is what is wrong with the USNT identification process. Those highly exposed (and thus "ranked") aren't necessarily the best players, especially when they mature. For example, his prize early signee from a few years back, KC, I don't get it. She's 5 foot nothing, a hundred and nothing, and whatever else Charles Dutton said to Rudy. Nice person but why is she NT? I watched them play UF and it wasn't competitive. But the overall SEC takeover is inevitable and happening. Not only that, my personal theory is that a couple of the more highly touted ACC schools will be SEC within a very few years. thank you.
The SEC becoming a top dog is possible but maybe not inevitable. Some of the schools with money have gone cheap. Alabama and Kentucky made hires that aren't impressing. Academics seems to be a component with soccer that doesn't play the same with softball, football etc. For the SEC to be top dog, A&M, UF and UGA probably need new coaches. They have had success regionally but aren't really relevant nationally consistently UGA is downright bad. USC hires Kidane. UK hires a guy with no experience for $100k. Pinsky was the kind of hire you expect from the SEC but both times the SEC raided the ACC for "top" coaches it didn't work out (Bramble to Alabama and Pinsky to Tennessee.) Hale at Arkansas has and Anganost at MSU will turn that conference upside down. How Hale is getting that caliber of kid to Arkansas is anyone's guess. Anganost was a risk based on Miami but spring results and recent history show that he will win games there. Can't imagine either of the will be there long term. Although we thought the Smith's would leave numerous times once they got it rolling here. USC took care of them and they returned the favor.
Good points about the hires. I guess it's true that SEC ADs have bigger responsibilities (although I can't imagine any AD job is burdensome) and women's soccer may not be the most researched hires. I'm not crazy about Shelley, although she is apparently gets results (not counting the post-season as much). She seems kinda cold and mean (on top of coach's wife on staff, which I think is a turn off). I know she's lost a verbal or several lately but that might be par. It'll be interesting to see how she does as the conference rises. Columbia is closer to the northeast and has an airport. Whatever happened to Bramble anyway? That was a weird ending. Did he actually want to go to Mason? I kinda liked the guy. He was straight-forward about expectations and didn't go heavy on selling his logo. I remember him telling recruits the real deal, etc.
This guy can't be real life. This person is some weird combination of sexist, ignorant and stoned. Bizarre poster.
buhehehe. You're funny. Serioualy, though, the only thing I'm "ignorant" of is mixing up Wilmington and Coastal, whomever sent the Smiths packing. Otherwise, I know about the recent verbal jumping one of the state lines. I know about staff nepotism and how it doesn't create a diverse and/or trusting environment for the kids (much less employees in any business). Central Fla is finding that out, "exspensively". I've heard and seen (on youtube) that Smith the greater is a task master. "Sexist", where do ya get that? I think Walker at Ohio State is terrific. Not crazy about Dambach (ego, mainly). Is USC not the closest SEC to the northeast club exposure money trail via Atlantic Seaboard routes? You might argue Knoxville but...buhehe...knot. hehehe. So they have a current advantage over other SECs. Otherwise, you should toast me as you were about to do to with your initial post. To the SEC's rise, down the ACC. To SEC football...
FYI it's Pensky I have a kid who is going through the recruiting process now (2019). She has had offers from all levels of the ACC including the very top, Big 12, Big10 and SEC. She has visited 9 schools. The facilities at the ACC do indeed pale to most of the SEC and frankly Big12. Further I am not sure that the ACC schools understand that. The amazing stadia, locker rooms, gear, etc has an impact on the way a kid sees the school and the program. The educational bit is more important to some than others, but the big SEC schools all have well respected honors colleges which helps to assuage angst related to relative academic rankings and perceived quality. They also have huge alumni networks that stand a kid in good stead upon graduation. I think the pull to the ACC/big10 for the top kids is that fewer SEC kids get picked for national programs. I think that may be a chicken and egg situation. They kids in the u14-15 YNT are snatched up by the ACC/Big10 and PAC 12(albeit usually a little later) Our YNT selection system has too little turnover, and frankly too much nepotism and politics, at these young ages to be a legitimate barometer of college aged performance to which an above poster alluded. That the top schools place so much stock in it results in my head scratching. As a related aside because our experience is this big money mentality is common in the SEC, but since he's already been brought up, Pensky's philosophy appears indeed to be spend most of his money on a primary roster of 15 or so kids. Hurts him if they are hurt or redshirted. KC didn't play last year because she was on the u20s. MOM against Ghana actually. I will defend her a bit. My opinion: she has the highest soccer IQ of any of the u20s. Technically she's the best also. Her physicality an obvious weakness, but she is a tank not an ephemeral waif. Her coach and I have counseled my daughter to take her time as she is uncertain. Further she is a late bloomer which stacks the game against her. After 5 inches and 30 pounds, she is a different player than she was 2 years ago. This new physicality (she's tall now and hasn't lost any quickness or technique) has changed the game for her. We are fortunate though in having enough saved so that a full ride (she's been offered several including coa) would be great but not absolutely necessary for her to attend the college of her choice. But for others where money is a big issue, the SEC will rise because of their willingness to shovel money and showcase "stuff" in front.of kids. Her full offers were SEC and lower ranked ACC. Lowest offer top ACC- not surprising. Here's another pull of the SEC and actually also the big 12. With no men's programs all the soccer fans in the town and school come to the women's game. When viewing a SEC/Big12 games on a visit the stands were full (big stadia also) and the drums were beating. Watching at a top ACC school and there were largely only parents in the stands. Yes a few students, but my kid really took notice to the game day atmosphere. I am sure that is variable in the ACC and to be honest she went to 2 other ACC games that were better attended, but still far from packed and definitely didn't have the same atmosphere. Its also hard for kids not to equate their offer with the relative value a coach places on a player. Full scholarship, where they pay your kid to attend, her value to them is undeniable. When they drop that to 50-60 at a top program the kid thinks, well they have to have some 100% kids out there that they obviously like better than me; even when assured by the coach otherwise. Because we all know that coaches never lie... Then they think wow I am really faced with an uphill battle because he is going to want to prove his "purchase" was a smart one and try really hard to see those top money kids succeed or he has to admit he made a mistake and wasted some money. Do I want to start off in a hole? I think my kid is thinking of following the money into the SEC. She's a bit underrated by the USSF, as a late bloomer, but not fortunately by the college coaches. Time will tell if it was the right choice and whether she is a kid who will make her mark on the game or not.
Excellent, informative and accurate post, ole. Thank you. I remember two years ago a player who visited three B10 schools and a top-tier ACC school remarking how run-down the ACC school's facilities were. Corrugated trailers, etc. The one remaining challenge of the SEC, and it'll be overcome, is the distant and relative isolation of many of the the SEC college towns. In women's sports, in particular, it's an obstacle for parents to let go of daughters in that way, fifty, hundred miles from the airport in some cases. Men's sports, meh, not so much an issue. I think hoops Geno is finding this out, these girls go to SEC towns then Storrs...or vice-versa...not such the "slam dunk" anymore. I read Georgetown men tried to hire Smart out of Texas and Brey from ND (thinking both had local ties to that area, I guess) but they shut them down immediately. Football is the key to happine$$.
Odd that the ACC has won the FOOTBALL national championship last year and the ACC has won it 2 out of the last 4 years, while the SEC has only won it once in the past 4 years.. No disputing that over a long period of time the SEC is the most successful college football factory, but its not a forgone conclusion that they will always win it..
I think the criteria that a top recruit uses to select a school is very personal and difficult to generalize. Given the crazy cost of an education today (especially at a private college), the size of the scholarship has to be a major factor. Beyond that, if the scholarship is equal I would think that for top recruits, facilities and crowd sizes would be secondary to quality of coaching, overall level of competition, quality of education and location of school. The SEC is improving but I think it is going to be a long time before it matches the ACC and PAC 12 (and even BIG 10) in many of these areas. Football money can't buy everything.
Top-down, the best and always the best. They will always have the largest TV contracts. As a result, the SEC will always be the #1 destination for any re-alignment and any ACC school will leave for it. North Carolina and one of the Va schools will be there, in my opinion. Same state ACC are screwed (Clemson, FSU, etc.). Texas is full of regret. Who would have thought A&M would (nearly or maybe) trump Texas as a destination? All because Texas held the SEC door open for them.
I've been somewhat doubtful about a power shift, but I decided to delve into my data/ratings bank to see if there are any kinds of trends going on among the conferences, as I don't trust my subjective impressions. Here are some interesting numbers related to the Top 13 conferences. They're based on conference average ratings over the last 10 years. I used two sets of ratings: the NCAA's ARPI (current format) and my own 5 Iteration ARPI ratings. My ratings are better than the NCAA's in all respects I'm able to measure -- correlation with game results, fairness to conferences using several measures, and fairness to regions using several measures. (The scales of the two rating systems are not exactly the same.) [Caution: Conference realignments have caused some of the trending, so one has to consider that when looking at these numbers.] ACC: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5800, #1, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5875, #1, trending downward Pac 12: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5750, #2, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5775, #3, trending downward Big 10: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5675, #3, trending upward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5725, #5, trending sideways SEC: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5650, #4-5, trending upward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5750, #4, trending upward Big 12: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5650, #4-5, trending upward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5825, #2, trending upward American: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5275, #6, trending upward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5525, #6, trending upward West Coast: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5250, #7, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5300, #8, trending downward Big East: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5150, #8, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5425, #7, trending downward Big West: 5 It ARPI trending towards .5025, #9, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5175, #10-11, trending downward Colonial: 5 It ARPI trending towards .4925, #10, trending sideways NCAA ARPI trending towards .5175, #10-11, trending sideways Ivy: 5 It ARPI trending towards .4900, #11, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5250, #9, trending upward Conference USA: 5 It ARPI trending towards .4750, #12-13, trending downward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5075, #12, trending downward Atlantic 10: 5 It ARPI trending towards .4750, #12-13, trending upward NCAA ARPI trending towards .5025, #13, trending upward Something I see in the numbers is a suggestion of some movement towards parity at the top. And, I see a suggestion of some movement towards the power conferences separating themselves from all the other conferences. These both are occurrences that people have theorized would happen -- and these numbers appear to support the theories.
In looking at your trending numbers, I was going to say the same thing that you articulate in your summary paragraph. Put in different words, the power conferences are trending toward parity as the numbers of increasingly better players increases. (eg The top 5 conferences are trending toward a mean.) With two exceptions, the remaining conferences are overall trending downward as the power confernces soak up most of the top talent.
That's certainly what it looks like. Plus, if you consider the power conferences to be the Top 5, one would expect movement up and down among the next tier, within their own group. Even looking at the American, which has the highest ratings of the non-power group, if you look at it's ratings, they're far below the Top 5. Their competitive group is the second tier, not the top tier. I have seen suggestions that there might be a divisional split between the Top 5 and the other Division I conferences. I had thought that seems very unlikely. When I look at these numbers, it looks to me like a good idea. The numbers suggest that the other Division I conferences never will be competitive with the Top 5.
Dissenting opinion: how many SEC coaches are going to win head-to-head recruiting battles with Anson Dorrance, Steve Swanson, Mark Krikorian, or Robbie Church? How often are they going to do it? Enough to permanently change the balance of power? That's what will have to happen. Facilities alone aren't going to do it. These guys lose far more of their top recruits to each other than to the SEC.
I see your point but it is changing. Duke is Stanford "academic reputation" wise so they'll get bodies, but as I contend about both schools, not necessarily the best ones, the most expo$ed ones. Their performance never really matches the incoming recruit ranking. True, the Carolina brand is the Carolina brand across all sports but soccer's been in a general fade. Fetzer is dilapidated and their small team building is a shack compared to the SEC facilities. However, we will have to see what the "renovations" bring. Dorrance is also not Dorrance as we are a generation removed from Mia Hamm and nearly a decade from Tobin. That recruiting angle is pretty dry. It's mostly the parents who are hung up on Carolina and that's something they have to overcome with facilities. Virginia, meh. it's over for them. FSU and Clemson are different...they are obviously geographically but also football the most "SEC" out of the ACC and look how they've risen. I'm still not impressed with Clemson's soccer facilities, however. i think that's preventing the breakout. The ACC may not be sunk this minute but they are sinking due to lack of TV.
You are out of touch by a mile. The ACC is about to explode for the better and women's soccer will dominate even more with expanded finances and exposure. 1) When's the last time you were at Clemson's practice and game facilities? Complete stadium overhaul and upgrade and a brand new, soccer-only training complex. 2) Preventing a breakout? Clemson women won the ACC regular season title and men have been ACC champs and College Cup team the last few years. 3) Lack of television? The ACC Network starts in 2019. 4) Please tell me why its over for Virginia? 5) Carolina general fade? Men and women were in the College Cup last year and have a $20 million palace being built
That is patently untrue. Until January I was a coach in a youth club in the Raleigh area, which was part of the massive merger under the NCFC banner (the merger wasn't for me & I've taken another college job). The HUGE majority of the girls in the club have stars in their eyes about UNC and Anson. It is the dream of the vast majority of them to play there. They don't care about the facilities. They go to Fetzer themselves to watch, with a couple thousand others, and get autographs after the game. They love everything about it. There have been quite a few good players in recent years, and especially this year, who would have been better served going elsewhere, where they were heavily recruited, but they couldn't resist the lure of UNC, and committed despite knowing they wouldn't play very much. This is not just true in the Triangle; it's statewide, as I saw first hand as an NC ODP coach for a decade, and they still have a strong pull nationwide, as I saw while at a different ACC program, where we lost recruits to UNC that were better suited to us. The championships have dried up, but top players still want to go there, and to get back to my thesis: Anson isn't going to lose many head-to-head recruiting battles with SEC programs.
No ACC school will be leaving the conference for the next 20 years. They have have all signed away their media rights through the 2036-37 school year.
SEC coaches don't need to win head-to-head recruiting battles with Unc, ucla or penn state. The talent pool has been growing steadily larger, and there are plenty of good/very good players for schools other than the elite to recruit. And they are. Auburn went toe-to-toe with Southern Cal in the Elite 8 game last year--perfectly even match--before losing 1-0. The SEC school hadn't beaten Dorrance or Church for any great players, I don't think--but it was an outstanding team. I view women's soccer being in roughly the same spot as women's basketball was a decade or so ago. A handful of programs still were perceived as dominant but one could see more and more good teams. The advantage stanford, duke, uva have is that they are also excellent academic institutions and so players who may not be especially happy with playing time, etc. may stick around anyway and not transfer, giving them a depth advantage. There is no question the game is getting increasingly competitive.
Naah, they all have outs. We always hear how schools can't leave so and so and as we've seen, they do. I guess it's like Kramer said to Jerry, "they write it off." Did you guys see the bill entered into the NC legislature this week which calls for both UNC and State to leave the ACC if the ACC tries to impose another "boycott"? I'm sure it was examined by lawyers before being entered. Although the UNC thing is enough, the State throw-in is like Dr. Evil demanding a million dollars. The SEC won't take same state schools like FSU and Clemson so UNC is in the cross-hairs (also the B10s but they'd be a fool not to go SEC). In addition to A&M, look at what the SEC money did and is doing with Arkansas. Beautiful women's-only post-SEC soccer stadium. I saw their post-SEC softball stadium on SEC network the other day and it looked like MLB. As i said, as legacies fade, and even parents become younger, this is what recruits will come to expect.
I agree the talent pool is growing and will continue to grow, but competing well and losing is a world away from the SEC overtaking the ACC as a whole. To do that, they will have to consistently win recruiting battles for players at the very top of the game. Those players are the difference makers.
I'm sure it was examined by lawyers which is why the bill stipulates it wouldn't go into effect until after the current Granting of Rights ends (2036-2037). That said, the bill will never even make it to a vote.