Bubble analysis (2019)

All games are in the books, and the selections will be made tomorrow.

24 teams have earned auto bids, leaving 24 at-large berths. Looking at the Tournament Projection, I'm going to take a deep dive and compare the 16 teams straddling the hypothetical cut line of 35/36.

Maryland (10-7-2, rpi = 26)
overall SOS = 5
last 8 = 4-4-0
non-conference = 6-3-0
non-conference SOS = 84
conference = 4-4-2
conference rank = 5
vs. 1-50 = 5-5-0
vs. 101-206 = 0-0-2
vs. NCAA field = 3-5-0
vs. straddlers = 2-0-0

Louisville (8-7-2, rpi = 27)
overall SOS = 4
last 8 = 3-5-0
non-conference = 5-2-1
non-conference SOS = 23
conference = 3-5-1
conference rank = 1
vs. 1-50 = 5-7-1
vs. 101-206 = 2-0-1
vs. NCAA field = 3-4-0
vs. straddlers = 2-3-1

Boston College (8-5-3, rpi = 28)
overall SOS = 9
last 8 = 3-3-2
non-conference = 6-0-1
non-conference SOS = 40
conference = 2-5-2
conference rank = 1
vs. 1-50 = 2-5-2
vs. 101-206 = 4-0-0
vs. NCAA field = 2-2-2
vs. straddlers = 1-3-0

Central Arkansas (9-7-1, rpi = 29)
overall SOS = 3
last 8 = 5-3-0
non-conference = 5-5-1
non-conference SOS = 45
conference = 4-2-0
conference rank = 11
vs. top 50 = 1-2-1
vs. 101-206 = 4-1-0
vs. NCAA field = 1-2-1
vs. straddlers = 1-0-0

Syracuse (6-6-5, rpi = 30)
overall SOS = 1
last 8 = 3-4-1
non-conference = 4-1-2
non-conference SOS = 102
conference = 2-5-3
conference rank = 1
vs. top 50 = 2-5-5
vs. 101-206 = 2-0-0
vs. NCAA field = 0-4-2
vs. straddlers = 2-1-3

Pittsburgh (9-7-2, rpi = 31)
overall SOS = 27
last 8 = 5-3-0
non-conference = 4-3-1
non-conference SOS = 39
conference = 5-4-1
conference rank = 1
vs. top 50 = 4-6-1
vs. 101-206 = 3-0-1
vs. NCAA field = 2-5-0
vs. straddlers = 2-1-1

South Florida (10-6-1, rpi = 32)
overall SOS = 49
last 8 = 4-3-1
non-conference = 6-2-1
non-conference SOS = 86
conference = 4-4-0
conference rank = 4
vs. top 50 = 2-5-1
vs. 101-206 = 4-0-0
vs. NCAA field = 0-3-0
vs. straddlers = 2-2-1

NC State (9-6-3, rpi = 35)
overall SOS = 31
last 8 = 2-4-2
non-conference = 5-1-2
non-conference SOS = 49
conference = 4-5-1
conference rank = 1
vs. top 50 = 3-6-0
vs. 101-206 = 4-0-1
vs. NCAA field = 1-4-0
vs. straddlers = 2-2-0

FIU (10-3-5, rpi = 36)
overall SOS = 89
last 8 = 3-3-2
non-conference = 5-0-4
non-conference SOS = 53
conference = 5-3-1
conference rank = 7
vs. top 50 = 2-2-2
vs. 101-206 = 3-0-2
vs. NCAA field = 2-2-1
vs. straddlers = 0-0-1

Memphis (10-7-0, rpi = 38)
overall SOS = 52
last 8 = 3-5-0
non-conference = 6-3-0
non-conference SOS = 38
conference = 4-4-0
conference rank = 4
vs. top 50 = 2-5-0
vs. 101-206 = 5-1-0
vs. NCAA field = 1-1-0
vs. straddlers = 1-4-0

Temple (8-8-2, rpi = 39)
overall SOS = 21
last 8 = 5-2-1
non-conference = 4-5-0
non-conference SOS = 18
conference = 4-3-2
conference rank = 4
vs. top 50 = 4-5-0
vs. 101-206 = 3-0-2
vs. NCAA field = 0-5-0
vs. straddlers = 4-0-0

Cal State Fullerton (12-7-1, rpi = 41)
overall SOS = 62
last 8 = 4-4-0
non-conference = 8-2-1
non-conference SOS = 82
conference = 4-5-0
conference rank = 6
vs. top 50 = 2-5-1
vs. 101-206 = 4-0-0
vs. NCAA field = 1-4-1
vs. straddlers = 1-1-0

UC Irvine (7-7-5, rpi = 42)
overall SOS = 11
last 8 = 4-3-1
non-conference = 3-4-4
non-conference SOS = 36
conference = 4-3-1
conference rank = 6
vs. top 50 = 3-5-2
vs. 101-206 = 1-0-1
vs. NCAA field = 2-3-1
vs. straddlers = 0-2-0

Western Michigan (11-6-2, rpi = 43)
overall SOS = 79
last 8 = 4-2-2
non-conference = 9-4-0
non-conference SOS = 44
conference = 2-2-2
conference rank = 9
vs. top 50 = 2-2-0
vs. 101-206 = 6-1-0
vs. NCAA field = 3-3-0
vs. straddlers = 0-0-0

San Diego (12-5-1, rpi = 44)
overall SOS = 113
last 8 = 4-4-0
non-conference = 9-1-1
non-conference SOS = 103
conference = 3-4-0
conference rank = 8
vs. top 50 = 2-2-1
vs. 101-206 = 5-2-0
vs. NCAA field = 1-2-1
vs. straddlers = 2-0-0

North Carolina (7-7-4, rpi = 45)
overall SOS = 22
last 8 = 1-5-2
non-conference = 4-2-3
non-conference SOS = 26
conference = 3-5-1
conference rank = 1
vs. top 50 = 3-5-3
vs. 101-206 = 2-0-1
vs. NCAA field = 3-4-1
vs. straddlers = 1-1-1

 

The only team above the cut line that missed was Central Arkansas, which is not a surprise. But the team that replaced them is...California, with an RPI of 49.

Cal was 8-6-3 overall, and 4-4-2 in the 3rd-ranked conference. They were 3-2 vs. NCAA Tournament teams with RPI's of 75 or better, but lost to Denver (and also lost to non-tourney team San Diego State). Overall SOS was a mediocre 81.

 

Go back to the top of the thread and look at Central Arkansas's profile. It does not compare to the other teams listed. UCA defeated just one team (Coastal Carolina) in the top 75 that made the NCAA Tournament.

RPI is not the only criteria. I tried to give all of the same information that was available to the Committee.

Digging deeper into Cal, the Committee obviously though highly of the Bears' road wins at Washington, Stanford and UCSB.

 

I'm talking about Central Arkansas, not Missouri State.

 

Maybe San Diego was in the mix, then, since the Toreros had a better RPI at 44. USD's SOS was 113, and was 1-2-1 vs. the top 25. Cal does have a better resume than San Diego; ergo, pick Cal.