Again for the Iranian posters who can understand farsi but I mentioned some of this earlier, watch it for yourselves. How can someone lie with such a grin on their face?? It really is a shame that this guy is the president of Iran! (Sorry only found a facebook hosted video of it) http://www.facebook.com/home.php#/video/video.php?v=1173076125563&ref=nf
Slightly biased but here is an interesting cartoon of last night's debate: There have been plenty of responses from all the people AN accused last night, but I am too lazy to read them let alone post them. Unfortunately most (if not all) are in farsi!
Do you think that Mousavi clearly won this 90-minute encounter? How is the reaction of the media & population?
IMO, Ahmadinejad had the upper hand in what was still a lively debate full of charges and counter charges, when he nearly self-imploded in the last 10-15 minutes, getting too petty and personal, including in attacking Mousavi's wife and the manner in which she had received her academic credentials. The debate then ended with Mousavi getting the last word and using it quite effectively, while Ahmadinejad was insisting that despite his time being over, he should get a chance to respond. As he was trying to get the last word, the television lights and picture were turned off on him. In terms of the effect of the debate on the candidates' election prospects, Mousavi clearly won the debate in my eyes, even if he was losing the debate earlier.
IM's analysis is pretty much spot-on. Mousavi was not prepared for the level of nastiness coming from Ahmadinejad. It took Mousavi a while find his tone, but he delivered a knockout blow in the final round. The Guardian has a very short clip from the debate with English subtitles..
I am surprised Mahmoud is not banking more on his acheivements in his first presidency. This is far from decided, and I don't believe Mahmoud has shown all his cards yet. He's a natural born warrior, so it's all about who is standing at the end. Mahmoud will pull it off.
The person whose ideas have impressed me the most is Mohsen Rezaie. He has properly focused his campaign on reducing the size and reach of the government, discussing how Iran needs an economic revolution empowering the private sector, and has the right ideas on many national security and foreign policy issues as well. But unfortunately he has little chance of getting elected and, besides, the Mykonos verdict does hang over him. The latter something that could complicate his ability to function effectively in the international arena and something that could be used by Iran's enemies to tarnish his reputation. Otherwise, while Mousavi may have won the debate against Ahmadinejad because the latter went overboard with petty and personal attacks, on substance I am not convinced Mousavi has the right ideas for Iran. Rezaie, in his debate with Mousavi and Karrubi, on the other hand focused on the kind of issues that I feel need to be addressed. Mousavi, except for advocating legal reforms (which I believe is one of the top priorities that we face, but whose contours require an appreciation of certain things that those around Mousavi may not fully appreciate), has said very little that makes me think that he will touch on the kind of things that will make a real difference to people's lives. Anyway, I am still undecided although I am beginning to lean towards Mohsen Rezaie in this race.
Mahmoud should have taken a blank peice of paper along with his resume to the debate, and show them both to the camera. That would have been a good reflection on each candidate's public service within the last 10 years, and keep pounding that message till election day.
Iranians Around the World: We Vote [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8URhnEELwlc&eurl="]YouTube - Global Photo Shoot[/ame]
The atmosphere in downtown Tehran today, one week before the election day. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBPNIkrPq5Q&feature=channel_page"]YouTube - Poank street, Tehran[/ame] [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9ec6RQ-veU&feature=channel_page"]YouTube - Parkway bridge, Tehran[/ame]
I could be wrong but Ahmadinejad is going to win. He is by far the most popular and powerful president the Islamic Republic of Iran ever had. Most people today associate Iran with Ahmadinejad so I just don’t see how a president with his status could lose this election. But when and if he wins I just don’t want foreigners to start blaming the people of Iran for electing him. Because as we saw , the people of the United States elected Bush for a second terms. The most likely reasons why he would win again is because most people won’t bother to vote and the ones who do vote will do it because of his economic promises like the last terms. With the debate with Mousavi he did the unthinkable and charged Rafanjani’s family of corruption. Everyone in Iran talks about the corruption of this family so Ahmadinejad made a very popular move and won a lot of votes by making that remark. For years, the people wanted some politician to talk against the corruption in Iran and Ahmadienjad exactly did that by talking against the poster child of corruption in Iran. Mousavi clearly lost the debate. I do hope he loses but it’s doubtful.
I hope the people of Iran elect Mousavi, he clearly has a stronger grasp of reality and understands the harm Ahmadinejad has caused for Iran in the World society. I also think that he has the best chance to actually improve the situation for Iran and lead them away from the isolation that Ahmadinejad has brought for them. Especially with Obama as POTUS and the efforts Obama has made towards working with Iran as GringoTex has already pointed out earlier.
Well, Ahmadinejad clearly won the debate against Karrubi. This race is going to be quite interesting, but it already for the most part a 2 man race between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. Each of them have polls and papers that show they are ahead and are going to win the election. My own sense is that Ahmadinejad still has the upperhand, but there is no doubt that his main challenger (Mousavi) has enough support to pull an upset. In the meantime, there is no way you can escape the election in places like Tehran, where every other car has a poster of either Mousavi or Ahmadinejad and where their supporters have been holding rallies and trying to bring out the vote for their candidate.
I will put this as mildly as I can; to the ignorant or uneducated, AN won the debate. The people who know anything about anything would have realised 3 things: 1. AN's stats were absolute bullshit. He used different scales for some things between the world and Iran, he used rates at other times instead true values, and in some he simply lied. (Rate of inflation was an absolute lie; only comparing the rate of 1 month?????? For fuks sake, even retard should realise When watching I managed to pick up on a few of them and those in the know how would have picked up even more! Here are some of them: http://weblog.raminia.com/?p=2727/ 2. AN did not respond to almost any of Karrubi's accusations or comments. (Halo of light being one example). When he did respond, he talked shit. (Persian Gulf being an example of that). 3. AN kept on repeating accusations that Karrubi had already answered. Again, an intelligent person would have realised that on both accounts. To put it simply, AN has lied so much and made such massive lies that it is impossible to watch him any more without a feeling of disgust. [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EngB1JSbZnc&feature=channel"]YouTube - ??? ?????,????? ? ???? ????? ? ????? ????‎[/ame] AN's supporters are claiming a victory for AN; those against him say that Karrubi exposed him completely. So the fact that you seem to think he won and I disagree may speak volumes of our positions. My only criticism of Karrubi was that he didn't make it all crystal clear enough.
The streets of Tehran, earlier today: [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6g-eLrlaoY"]YouTube - Ahmadi bye bye[/ame]
The most amazing debate tonight between the two reformist candidates Karrubi and Mousavi. I wish the Western world could watch a translated version of the 90 minutes that happened. And the atmosphere in Iran right now. They would then understand what democracy and a people who understand and yearn for it really means. Someone needs to give an analysis of what was said and what happened briefly. There were so many comments that had so much meaning behind them. It was mind blowing. I couldn't even understand all the references being thrown in; not sure how many people would have understood all the nuances.
Do you think that the reformers have a chance to change the Govt. in Iran? I think at this point in time with Obama they will have a more willing partner in the west should they gain power. Perhaps a thaw in relations will follow?
It's very complicated and depending on who you talk to, you get very varied responses! There are polls predicting first round victory over 55% for AN (mostly from groups linked to AN) and others which are either more neutral or to the left predicting a close battle likely to be won by Mousavi. It's absolutely impossible to tell who has more votes right now and more importantly who is likely to win (I am sure at least the Americans understand that the person with the most votes doesn't always win!! ) There are many who are worried about the powers behind the scenes and what they may do. There are wide reports of AN using every facility available to him through the government to bribe voters or get more attention and disrupt the campaigns of his opponents. AN's constant lying (it is becoming so ridiculous that he rarely tells the truth anymore and his opponents started off by politely saying he may be mistaken but now brazenly say he keeps lying (one of the main themes of tonights debate!!) Also his attempts at baseless and accusatory character assassinations have upset many, but at the same time some enjoyed them as well. Long story short, no one knows who might win! No one knows whether there will be any cheating. Sure, Mousavi has more than a chance, especially in a fair fight, but this is the most controversial election I have ever come across (Bush vs Gore is nothing compared to this!!) A lot of the stories and arguments are coming to the surface and the criticisms of the government have become far more outspoken and to the point. People who have been apolitical until now are getting more than a little involved. My prediction: likely that it will be over 70% voter turnout (the higher, the better for the reformers) and unless there is massive fraud Mousavi will win. If it happens, he will be the most left wing president (he is probably more of a reformer in the true meaning of the word than even Khatami) and he has the advantage of being a lot "ballsier" that Khatami. He is even likely to make use of both Karrubi and Rezaei (the latter being right wing but still very reasonable and honest candidate - AN is the anomaly!). So we can only hope for now and make sure every Iranian, especially those outside the country vote! These will mostly be votes going against AN.
Debates are won or lost based on who they will influence people's votes, not based on who you think had the "better arguments". And how you rate those who might disagree with you. Within Iran and based on the reaction I have seen from those who saw the debate, which includes many who don't like Ahmadinejad, Karrubi lost the debate. This was not like the Ahmadinejad-Mousavi debate where each side's supporters claimed for victory for their candidate. Whatever the merits and demerits of Ahmadinejad's arguments, Karrubi came across as unprepared, unorganized, inarticulate, and too old. In other words, he will probably not fare as well in the election as his supporters might have hoped before this debate. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, probably only gained from that particular debate among the undecided camp, while I don't think he lost anyone who was already committed to him. That is true regardless that he may not have been "truthful" in some of his points, and true even though he may not have converted any of Mousavi's supporters to his side. From my perspective, the debate between Ahmadinejad and Karrubi turned this more than ever into a 2 man race between Ahmadineajd and Mousavi. Whether that improves Mousavi's chances or whether the votes that Karrubi lost from the debate will go mostly to Ahmadinejad is open to differing interpretations. The debate that took place between Karrubi and Mousavi a few hours ago might have some bearing on the answer to that question as both candidates were trying to stunt any momentum Ahmadinejad might have gained from his debate with Karrubi. As for whether Ahmadinejad has "lied" about his record, my view is that none of the groups have a monopoly on being truthful and that includes both Ahmadinejad and his rivals. I just don't find it useful at this juncture to bring out the many unsubstantiated and misleading attacks against Ahmadinejad. Instead, here I am focused on whose message (including from the debates) I feel will resonate with voters (particularly undecided voters) the most? In answering that question, I have not looked so much into my own preferences, since I feel mine diverge significantly from the general voting public in Iran. Otherwise, on substance, the candidate whose message has appealed the most to me has been Mohsen Rezaie. But does that mean I rate him as having any chance of doing well in this election? No. His message, even though substantively closer to what I like than what I hear from any of the other candidates, is unlikely to resonate with ordinary voters in Iran. And ultimately that matters much more in handicaping and election than anything else.
Tonight's debate was great. Karoubi and Moussavi devoted the whole 90 minutes to expose Ahmadi and his lies. http://business.maktoob.com/20090000004891/Iran_vote_rivals_accuse_Ahmadinejad_of_lying_/Article.htm
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124442253092992803.html http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/08/world/middleeast/08iran.html?hp