Big 12 2017

There's never much Big 12 traffic here, but since we're halfway through the conference season, I think it's worth a minute to see how things stand.

West Virginia is West Virginia, and is finally rounding into form as the best team in the league after some shaky play early in the season, including a loss to Texas (only the second regular-season conference loss for the Mountaineers since joining the Big 12 in 2012).

Texas and Oklahoma State have been the "good" surprise teams of the season. Texas remains unbeaten on the year, and Oklahoma State has also pulled themselves into contention for the conference title. Both have experienced setbacks already, though - Oklahoma State lost by a goal to West Virginia yet again (seven of the teams' eight meetings have been one-goal margins), and Texas has tied with Oklahoma and TCU, creating the odd look of an undefeated team sitting in third place.

TCU is currently on the high end of mid-table, which is better than was expected for them. Kansas, in contrast, is sitting sixth after being picked second in the preseason poll. Texas Tech and Baylor are also mid-table as expected.

The shocker of the Big 12 season has easily been Oklahoma. Picked third in the preseason poll, the Sooners are sitting tied for eighth place, are winless in the league, and have only two wins on the season. Oklahoma's problems are all-around: they've only scored eight goals in 15 matches, and five of their nine losses have been by more than two goals.

Kansas State was a unanimous choice to finish last in their first conference season (and second overall), but are currently tied with OU thanks to their first Big 12 win. Even sweeter for the Wildcats is that the win was over Kansas in the first-ever meeting of the two.

Iowa State is once again Iowa State, which means the Cyclones are terrible again. They're currently in last place with only one point.

The league's RPI situation is not good. West Virginia and Texas are in the top 10 and should be making plans for the tournament. Oklahoma State was at 50 last week, so the Cowgirls need as many wins as possible. TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech are all in the 60s, Kansas is in the high 70s, and the other three teams are all 150-plus (with two in the 190s).

As far as the conference title goes, of the three main contenders, West Virginia has the easiest schedule left and is in the driver's seat despite the loss to Texas. Oklahoma State and Texas each have a road trip that could be tricky (Texas Tech for OSU, Baylor for UT) and the Kansas schools, and then play each other in Austin to close the season. Texas needs both WVU and OSU to drop more points to stay in the race. TCU is still on the fringe in fourth place with a favorable schedule, but a trip to Morgantown looms.

 

And this week's RPI is out:

5. West Virginia
9. Texas
43. Oklahoma State
57. TCU
60. Baylor
73. Texas Tech
90. Kansas
177. Oklahoma
181. Kansas State
189. Iowa State

That's a drop for Texas Tech, Kansas, and Oklahoma, and Texas is about the same. Everyone else moved up.

 

This was a light weekend in the Big 12, as only four teams played twice.

The big result of the weekend was Kansas handing Texas its first defeat of the year, a 2-1 final in Lawrence. Texas recovered to beat Kansas State in overtime on Sunday, while KU squandered the win immediately by losing to Baylor.

Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and TCU all won their Friday night games.

Current standings (league records only):
West Virginia (5-1, 15 pts.)
Oklahoma State (5-1, 15 pts.)
Texas (4-1-2, 14 pts.)
TCU (4-1-1, 13 pts.)
Baylor (4-2-1, 13 pts.)
Kansas (2-3-1, 7 pts.)
Texas Tech (1-4-1, 4 pts.)
Kansas State (1-5, 3 pts.)
Oklahoma (0-3-3, 3 pts.)
Iowa State (0-5-1, 1 pt.)

This week will see things take shape for the conference title and the Big 12 tournament. West Virginia and Oklahoma State can eliminate all other title contenders if both win both their games, but TCU, Texas, and Baylor could still be in the race if the leaders both fail to take six points. TCU has the only direct shot at the leaders, but West Virginia has only dropped points once in Big 12 play in Morgantown (and that was in 2012).

I had thought the league might change things up since all schools are now participating, but everything I've seen says they're keeping the eight-team tournament. So, the top five in the current standings are in, Kansas is probably safe, and Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Oklahoma will all fight for two spots. Iowa State is not mathematically eliminated, but it would take an incredible effort for the Cyclones to pull themselves out of last place.

This week's games:

Thursday:
Texas Tech at West Virginia

Friday:
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Baylor at Texas
TCU at Iowa State
Kansas at Oklahoma

Sunday:
TCU at West Virginia
Kansas at Oklahoma State
Kansas State at Oklahoma
Texas Tech at Iowa State

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As far as the NCAA Tournament goes, the new RPI has the league as such:

6. West Virginia
14. Texas
35. Oklahoma State
54. Baylor
59. TCU
69. Texas Tech
76. Kansas
171. Kansas State
182. Iowa State
184. Oklahoma

That's a drop from the top of the 3-seed line to the middle of the 4-seed line for Texas, so the Longhorns need to recover fast if they want to keep hope of hosting multiple rounds alive. Oklahoma State got a nice jump into the mid-30s and continues to solidify its resume. Kansas got a big boost from the UT win, but not as big as it would have been if they hadn't lost to Baylor. Kansas State made a fair jump as well, while Oklahoma took a fall to bring up the rear of the league's RPI.

Overall, the league's ratings remain mostly middling to poor, but West Virginia and Texas have enough on their resume to counteract that. Oklahoma State needs to take care of business and beat both Kansas and Kansas State to avoid an RPI hit that could damage their resume, and could use the help of Baylor or TCU getting into the Top 50. Both of those teams really need a big result this week, or they're going to be left trying to win the conference tournament to get in.

 

And the nigh-unthinkable starts the weekend - Texas Tech survives to claim a 1-1 draw in Morgantown, only the second time since joining the conference that West Virginia has dropped points at home.

 

The schedule I was looking at to make the last big post was wrong - TCU at Iowa State is tonight. Updates at the end...

 

TCU escapes in Ames, winning 1-0 over Iowa State in overtime with a goal in the 98th minute. Looks like this might be a crazy weekend.

 

You're probably still in good shape to win the league if you beat TCU Sunday. OSU still has to go to Austin next week, so even if the Cowgirls beat Kansas, they have to get a result there if you win.

However, if OSU beats Kansas and there's a draw in Morgantown, Oklahoma State wins the conference.

The do-or-die games start Sunday for the last two spots in the conference tournament too. Should be some intense games at the end of the table as well.

 

Despite early indications that things could get interesting, this was a weekend that went mostly to form in the Big 12. But, some things remain in limbo as we head into the final matchday.

West Virginia has opened the door for Oklahoma State to win the conference championship thanks to an unexpected draw with Texas Tech, but it will not be an easy task for the Cowgirls. However, OSU’s two wins over the weekend have eliminated the other contenders, so it will either be OSU, WVU, or a tie for the Big 12 title. OSU only needs a result on Friday to win at least a share of the title, and can afford a loss only if West Virginia does not win. But, with OSU traveling to Texas and WVU traveling to Kansas, there’s still a good possibility the Mountaineers will win their sixth straight title outright.

On the other end of the table, Oklahoma picked the right time to show their first real sign of life all season, taking down Kansas State on Sunday to put themselves in the Big 12 Tournament. K-State can still tie on points with either OU or Texas Tech, but the first tiebreaker is head-to-head, and K-State lost to both teams. Looking at the overall season, the Wildcats deserve to be in the conference tournament, but one bad day is going to cost them.

One seed is already in place for the conference tournament, as Kansas is locked into the 6 seed. Everyone else will be playing for positioning on Friday, except for the Kansas State-Iowa State game.

Seeding possibilities for each team:

Oklahoma State – 1 or 2.
West Virginia – 1, 2, or 3.
Texas – 2, 3, or 4.
TCU – 3, 4, or 5.
Baylor – 4 or 5.
Kansas – 6.
Texas Tech – 7 or 8.
Oklahoma – 7 or 8.
Kansas State – out.
Iowa State – out.

This week’s games:

Oklahoma State at Texas
West Virginia at Kansas
Baylor at TCU
Oklahoma at Texas Tech
Iowa State at Kansas State

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On the NCAA Tournament front, this week’s RPI:

5. West Virginia
9. Texas
32. Oklahoma State
50. Baylor
58. TCU
72. Texas Tech
83. Kansas
180. Iowa State
182. Oklahoma
198. Kansas State

West Virginia gets a slight bump, and remains on the last 1-seed/first 2-seed edge.

A good bounce-back for Texas, moving up from 14th back to 9th. The Longhorns remain in the conversation for a 2-seed.

Oklahoma State took care of business but didn’t get much to show for it in the RPI, moving up only three places. The Cowgirls are probably safe, but they could use a good result in Austin to eliminate any doubt.

Baylor lost, but just playing Texas was enough to get the Bears into the Top 50. TCU is just outside, so their game Friday (and quite possibly a second game next Wednesday) will be huge in determining if either team can stay alive for an at-large selection.

On the low end, Kansas State dropped like a rock, but that’s expected when you lose to a team as bad as Oklahoma.

 

The final matchday is done, and improbably, Oklahoma State has won the Big 12 title for the third time.

It certainly wasn't easy for the Cowgirls, as they ended up in overtime with Texas. But senior defender Laurene Tresfield put in her second goal of the season to give the Cowgirls three points and the trophy. It's easily the Cowgirls' best win of the year, and should be enough to ensure an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

West Virginia's conference-record streak of five straight titles was snapped despite their win at Kansas tonight. The Mountaineers had a comfortable 2-0 win, but the OSU win rendered that moot in the standings. But, it's another win on WVU's resume as they fight for a possible 1-seed.

In a mild shocker, Texas's loss to OSU ended up putting the Longhorns in fourth place, as TCU was able to defeat Baylor in overtime and slip past the Longhorns for third. This could end up playing to the Longhorns' advantage, as it should give them another crack at OSU if they get past Baylor, and possibly another shot at West Virginia in the final. They'll need to take that opportunity; the Longhorns have backslid a bit after their hot start, and it could cost them a seed in the NCAAs.

Baylor's slim NCAA hopes took a blow, and they'll need a good showing at the tournament to have any hope of sneaking in. TCU kept their hopes alive, but being further down the RPI than Baylor, they'll also need a strong showing.

Texas Tech easily dispatched Oklahoma to claim seventh place and another match against WVU. In a game between the bottom two teams, Iowa State spoiled Kansas State's senior night and claimed their first conference victory of the year. It just shows how tight things were in the two halves of the league; a week ago, K-State looked like a lock for the conference tournament, and they ended up finishing last.

First round pairings for the Big 12 Tournament next week in Kansas City:

#1 Oklahoma State vs. #8 Oklahoma
#4 Texas vs. #5 Baylor

#2 West Virginia vs. #7 Texas Tech
#3 TCU vs. #6 Kansas

The tournament is on a Wednesday-Friday-Sunday schedule, with the final airing on Fox Sports 1. We'll see how the RPI shakes out on Monday.

 

And an updated RPI look before the Big 12 Tournament:

5. West Virginia
10. Texas
24. Oklahoma State
43. TCU
55. Baylor
71. Texas Tech
85. Kansas
175. Iowa State
193. Oklahoma
216. Kansas State

WVU saw no change, and Texas dropped a spot. A 2 seed and a 3 seed seem to be crystallizing for these teams.

Oklahoma State moved up eight spots to solidify its at-large credentials, but it appears the only chance at a 4-seed for the Cowgirls will be to win the Big 12 Tournament.

TCU jumped 15 places for beating Baylor to easily make the biggest move up the ladder. They have a chance for an at-large, but they may need to make the tournament final to do it. Baylor only dropped five spots, so they aren't completely dead, but they're close.

Texas Tech, Kansas, and OU all have to win the tournament.

 

Not possible. The Big 12 has already had a worse season back in 2009. Only two of 11 teams made the NCAAs, and that was only because Oklahoma State beat Texas A&M in the tournament final to get the autobid. Missouri won the regular-season championship that year and didn't make the NCAAs.

This was a bit of a lost year, but not the worst one the league has had. As for winning tournament games, yes, WVU does have the best chance for advancement, but OSU and Texas can progress with the right draws. None of them are a threat for the College Cup, unless WVU gets its act together. They seem to have coasted a bit this year.

 

Give me OSU, Texas, WVU, and TCU in the quarters. But, Baylor gave Texas a game earlier, so that one may not be an easy pick.

I think an OSU/Texas semi is likely to go to PKs, so who knows there. I think WVU wins the tournament regardless.

 

Round one of the Big 12 Tournament is done. Only one surprise on the day, and it's a mild one all things considered.

Oklahoma State dispatched Oklahoma as expected, winning 2-1 to open the day. The Cowgirls' first goal came on a broken play, as OU tried the offside trap, were sure they had succeeded, and all quit moving. But Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year Haley Woodard was not flagged, and suddenly had a 1v1 with the keeper that she put in the net. OSU took a two-goal lead into the break after a set-piece header, and while OU got one back early in the second half, they didn't see another clear chance.

The 4-5 game saw the only upset of the day, as Baylor came from behind to beat Texas 2-1. The Longhorns scored in the 72nd minute, but gave up the tying goal in the 88th. A bad UT giveaway in their own end in the first OT led directly to Julie James's golden goal in the 99th. Baylor absolutely needed this to keep their NCAA hopes alive, while UT's late fade - both in the game and in the season - might put their hopes of an NCAA seed in jeopardy.

West Virginia looked early on like they might again have trouble with Texas Tech, going into the break tied 1-1. But WVU turned it up in the second half, scoring goals in the 68th and 83rd minutes to comfortably end the Red Raiders' season, 3-1.

The nightcap saw TCU and Kansas fight to a 1-1 draw. Kansas took the lead in the 62nd, but the Horned Frogs were able to tie it up in the 79th. TCU had most of the chances in the overtime periods, but the Jayhawks were able to hang on to force PKs. In the shootout, TCU's all-conference keeper Katie Lund stopped KU's first shot, Jayhawk keeper Maddie Dobyns guessed wrong (and badly so) on all of TCU's kicks, and the fourth KU shot bounced away off the crossbar. 4-2, TCU.

The semis will be Oklahoma State vs. Baylor and West Virginia vs. TCU. OSU and WVU won these matchups at home in the regular season, with OSU beating Baylor 1-0 in overtime and WVU beating TCU 2-0.

With both Baylor and TCU on the NCAA bubble and OSU and WVU playing for better placement, it should be a good pair of games on Friday.

 

Texas hit the wall a couple of weeks ago, and did not adjust to that properly. They are a young team, and the Big 12 has always been a pretty physical league; many of their players just aren't used to it yet. Couple that with Angela Kelly only giving 13 field players regular time, and never changing the keeper, and that's a worn-out team. They looked a lot better when they still had their legs.

It didn't help that you saw a game against Baylor, whose game strategy always involves brute force.

 

The conference is not awful. Largely mediocre, yes. But that's most years in the Big 12. Three or four NCAA bids and one team maybe in the Sweet 16 is a normal tournament.

I don't know why you're trying to peddle this "the Big 12 has fallen apart" narrative when it's not true. Well, unless you're an Aggie, and then I get why.