Using my formula for converting odds into probabilities found at my blog on BigSoccer and the fact that three clubs get promoted, here are the Bet365 probabilities of promotion: Middlesbrough: 37.5% Nottingam Forest: 27.0% Queens Park Rangers: 23.4% Burnley: 23.4% Reading: 21.1% Ipswich: 15.6% Leicester: 15.6% Cardiff: 15.6% Sheffielf United: 14.1% Leeds United: 12.8% Bristol City: 12.8% Hull City: 10.8% Norwich: 10.0% Portsmouth: 10.0% Swansea: 10.0% Derby County: 7.0% Preston North End: 7.0% Barnsley: 4.4% Doncaster: 4.4% Millwall: 4.4% Coventry: 4.4% Watford: 3.2% Crystal Palace: 3.2% Scunthorpe: 2.1% The mean probability of promotion is 3/24 = 12.5%.
Must put a few quid on Palace. As far as QPHAHA third favourites to go up, somebody is having a laugh, not even one of their owners wants them to go up.